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Russia's crude exports fell sharply during the final weeks of 2025 and into the new year. A 14th straight drop in prices combined with the smaller flows sent the value of shipments to the lowest since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.The country shipped 3.43 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 4, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That's down by about 440,000 from the period to Dec. 21, with lower shipments from the key Pacific port of Kozmino driving the drop. The flows are volatile, affected by weather, sanctions and the timing of shipments.
Prices of Russian crudes have fallen more steeply than those for global benchmarks following US sanctions on Moscow's two largest exporters, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC in October. Urals crude is trading below $35 a barrel in both the Baltic and the Black Sea, about 60% of its price on Oct. 1, with the Pacific ESPO grade down by 25%. In contrast, North Sea Dated crude has lost just 10% of its value over the period, according to Argus Media.
The drop in flows comes as Ukraine maintains its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including refineries, pipelines, ports and tankers. Drone strikes on vessels in the Black Sea have led tankers heading to Novorossiysk to adopt a more southerly route along Turkey's coast.
Russian barrels are starting to offload again at key Indian ports, but delivery chains are lengthening, with an increase in clandestine cargo transfers and vessels spending long periods anchored awaiting clearance to dock.
Deliveries are now just about keeping pace with loadings again, bringing to an end the recent surge in the amount of Russian oil at sea, but they will have to accelerate further to start reducing the glut.
Numerous ships have disappeared from tracking systems in the Riau archipelago, northeast of Singapore, a favored location for transferring sanctioned Iranian barrels between vessels, which is growing in popularity among carriers of Moscow's crude seeking to disguise the origin of their cargoes.
Almost 40 cargo switches have been observed since the start of November in areas including Riau, close to either end of the Suez Canal and near the Russian ports of Kozmino and Zarubino in the Pacific.
• Crude Shipments
A total of 30 tankers loaded 21.46 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Jan. 4, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down from 23.59 million barrels on 32 ships the previous week.
On a daily average basis, shipments in the week to Jan. 4 fell to 3.07 million barrels a day, down by about 290,000 barrels a day from the previous week and by 980,000 barrels a day from the week to Dec. 21. The drop took them to the lowest since August.
Separately, two cargoes of Kazakhstan's Kebco grade were shipped from Novorossiysk and one from Ust-Luga during the week. One of two working moorings at the nearby CPC terminal, damaged in a sea-drone attack in November, has still not been replaced, which may have resulted in some Kazakh barrels being diverted to Novorossiysk.
The drop in flows over the past two weeks has been driven by fewer shipments from the Pacific port of Kozmino and from the Black Sea terminal at Novorossiysk.
• Export Value
On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow's exports fell to $960 million a week in the 28 days to Jan. 4, sliding by 10% from the figure for the period to Dec. 28. Average prices fell for the 14th straight week and combined with the drop in flows to take the value of shipments to the lowest since at least the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Using this measure, the export prices of Russia's Urals from the Baltic and Black Sea fell by about $1.10 a barrel to $36.69 and $34.82 respectively. The price of Pacific ESPO crude dropped by $0.90 to average $47.55 a barrel. Delivered prices in India also fell by $0.90 to $54.64 a barrel, another new low for the period since March 2023. All prices are according to numbers from Argus Media.
On a weekly basis, the value of exports averaged about $835 million in the 7 days to Jan. 4, down by 11% from the period to Dec. 28, with the drop in flows boosted by a decline in prices.
Prices of Russian crudes have retreated much more steeply than those for global benchmarks following US sanctions on Moscow's two largest exporters, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC in October. Urals crude is trading at about 60% of its price on Oct. 1, with the Pacific ESPO grade down by 25%. In contrast, North Sea Dated crude has lost just 10% of its value over the same period, according to data from Argus Media.
• Flows by Destination
Observed shipments to Russia's Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, fell to 3.29 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Jan. 4, down from 3.57 million in the period to Dec. 28.
While the amount of Russian crude heading to both China and India appears to be falling sharply, that's being offset by growing quantities on vessels yet to show a final destination, allowing for much of that pattern to be reversed. Tankers are increasingly showing interim destinations until they are well across the Arabian Sea, while some never show a final calling point, even after mooring to discharge.
Vessels are also spending longer at sea, with several tankers diverting from initial destinations on the west coast of India or in Turkey. They are also getting held up waiting to discharge at Chinese and Indian ports.
There is now more crude on tankers yet to show a final destination than the combined amount on ships signaling that they are heading to China, India or Turkey.
Flows on tankers signaling Chinese ports stood at 870,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 4, down from 1.01 million for the period to Dec. 28. The amount destined for India fell to 600,000 barrels a day from 910,000 barrels a day in the period to Dec. 28. But there is the equivalent of 1.83 million barrels a day on vessels yet to show a final destination.
Of that, about 1.43 million barrels a day is on ships from Russia's western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point, and a further 400,000 barrels a day is on tankers yet to signal any destination.
Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to Jan. 4 slipped to about 100,000 barrels a day, the lowest since April 2023. A cargo of Russian crude was shipped to Syria in the last week of December, the first for three months. Tankers hauling Russian crude to the east Mediterranean nation rarely signal their destination and usually disappear from automated tracking systems when they're south of Crete, making it difficult to estimate flows in advance of ships arriving off the port of Baniyas, where they can usually be picked up on satellite photos.
Notes: All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan's KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified - a tactic known as spoofing - to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.
Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd. and satellite imagery covering Russian ports.
(COMMENT, BELOW)