Klobuchar could cost Minnesota Republicans their shot

The abrupt end to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz' bid for a third term should have set off a feeding frenzy among ambitious Democrats.

It didn't. Instead, they are waiting on the decision of one woman: Senator Amy Klobuchar, former presidential candidate, third-ranking member of the Democratic Senate caucus and a uniquely powerful political figure in her home state.

Walz, who withdrew from the contest last week, had conferred with Klobuchar a day earlier, according to the Minnesota Star Tribune. The two talked about her potential candidacy. Walz bowed out the following day.

Klobuchar has said she is "seriously considering" running for governor and is widely expected to enter sometime in the next few weeks. Minnesota Democrats operate on a caucus system, and precinct caucuses - the first step in the process - will be held statewide on Feb. 3.

Should she enter, Klobuchar is expected to sweep the field clean. She also brings built-in advantages that the current crop of GOP candidates will find hard to surmount. The four-term senator has long been among Minnesota's most popular elected officials, winning most of her races handily. She has a history of working across party lines that has gained her quiet support among mainstream Republicans and independents.

That makes her not just the odds-on favorite for governor, but also the figure many Democrats have pinned their hopes on to rise above the social services scandal that has engulfed the Walz administration and preserve Democratic majorities in the Legislature.

Klobuchar, thanks in part to her presidential run in 2020, has an elevated national profile and a broad, well-established fundraising network. She raised more than $21 million for her 2024 Senate race - far outpacing the $6.2 million Walz raised for his 2022 reelection campaign.

Former Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty, the last Republican to hold the office, recently told WCCO radio that Klobuchar, whom he knows well, would be a "very, very formidable candidate."

The 2026 race has been upended not only by Walz' departure, but by the widening social services fraud - now pegged at possibly $9 billion - that occurred largely under his administration.

President Donald Trump will also be a factor. He is not popular in Minnesota, where his approval rating is underwater, and his decision to send thousands of federal immigration agents into the Twin Cities metro area, resulting in the shooting death of Renee Good, has created a massive backlash. After another ICE-involved shooting on Wednesday, the president threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in the state. There are already public safety and economic repercussions as schools go online, citizen calls flood police stations and restaurants close.

Moreover, the president's threats to withhold billions in safety net funds from the state could affect the hundreds of thousands of Minnesotans who rely on public assistance for groceries, child care and health care. Republican candidates even in down-ballot races may be hard-pressed to explain those cuts to their constituents.

Walz's decision to withdraw and Trump's decision to make an example of Minnesota have scrambled a race that could have been the GOP's best chance in years to retake both the governor's seat and the Legislature.

It still may be, but if Klobuchar enters the race, the task will get considerably harder. The state GOP's best-known candidate is Mike Lindell of "MyPillow guy" fame. His close embrace of Trump earned him praise from the president, who said in December, "This guy deserves to be governor." Another candidate, Chris Madel, recently announced that he is providing legal counsel to Jonathan Ross, the ICE agent seen on video shooting Good. Others in the crowded Republican field include frequent candidate and businessman Kendall Qualls and House Speaker Lisa Demuth.

Marty Seifert, a former House Republican leader and two-time gubernatorial candidate, said that with Walz out, his party faces a significantly tougher battle. "Everything has to be rebooted," he told the Star Tribune.

Walz was wise to make the choice he did. It spares his party a potentially divisive and bitter fight between those who supported his bid and those who have lost confidence in his ability to knit a battered state and party back together.

The governor said in a statement announcing his withdrawal that "Every minute I spend defending my own political interests would be a minute I can't spend defending the people of Minnesota against criminals who prey on our generosity and the cynics who prey on our differences." His remaining time, he said, will be spent rooting out fraud and "helping a Democrat win in November."

And in a nod to the cut-through-the-clutter energy he displayed before he was named to the 2024 presidential ticket with Vice President Kamala Harris, Walz issued a message for Republicans: "Expect, for the next 11 months, for me to ride you like you've never been ridden to make sure you're doing your job."

The heady days of the "One Minnesota" slogan Walz campaigned on in his first term, when he hoped to bridge the rural/urban divide, are far behind him. His distaste for Republicans and for Trump, whom he accuses of running "a petty and vile administration that doesn't care about the well-being of Minnesotans," has grown exponentially.

Walz has said that after leaving office, he may return to his first love - teaching. But it's also possible that, at the relatively young age of 61, this former congressman, two-term governor and vice presidential candidate may yet resurface in US politics.

And Republicans, who now may face a politician seasoned by years of tangling with Trump, could find themselves wishing Walz had stayed in.

Patricia Lopez is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics and policy. She is a former member of the editorial board at the Minneapolis Star Tribune, where she also worked as a senior political editor and reporter.

Previously:
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• Trump drew a line between Latinos and illegals. It worked