Is it time to wind down the war in Ukraine and start peace talks?

There's been a lot of uplifting, we're-in-it-to-win-it language used about the Ukraine war recently. The message being sent is that the United States is committed for the long haul and won't abandon its friends to a brutal aggressor like Russian President Vladimir Putin.

It's a moving display of solidarity, including last week's visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House — especially since it comes against the backdrop of 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 40,000 civilians killed or wounded, according to the Pentagon, since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

"We will stay with you for as long as it takes," President Biden told Zelensky.

But does he mean it? And even if he does, can the U.S. be trusted to follow through?

For that matter, should we encourage the war indefinitely, helping Ukraine drag out its fight in hopes of a decisive military victory?

Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.

The war in Ukraine poses complicated questions. Of course we want to support our allies, who are fighting fiercely to protect their country and their territorial integrity against foreign invaders. But it's by no means clear how long "as long as it takes" will take, or whether the American government and its NATO allies will really stick it out.

Ukraine has persevered — defying odds and expectations — for nearly a year, buoying some people's hopes that it can actually prevail on the battlefield. It has pushed the Russians, who no doubt foresaw an easy victory, back from Kiev, out of the Kharkiv region and the city of Kherson.

But what's next? Some analysts believe Ukraine can and will drive Russia out of Ukraine entirely. Others worry that the cost in dollars and lives is becoming unacceptably high, that the threat of dangerous military escalation is growing or that the Russians might turn the tide in the war.

The latter group believes it's time to think seriously about negotiating for peace.

I'm torn, like many people. I entirely agree that Putin is dangerous and irresponsible, and I'd like to see his army pushed out. Occupying another country's territory by force is unacceptable. And I'm not deaf to the argument that if the world permits such behavior today, it encourages Putin to go farther and others to emulate him.

The ideal message to send is that we are united in our irrevocable commitment to oppose Russian atrocities and imperial conquest.

But I know us.

It's all very well for Biden to say we're with you "for as long as it takes," but Biden is in no position to make such a promise; he faces reelection in 2024. Furthermore, history suggests Americans are not inclined to stay involved indefinitely in faraway crises if the costs grow too high.

Republicans, who will take control of the House of Representatives next week, are already grumbling that Ukraine shouldn't get a "blank check." (With the signing of the budget bill this week, U.S. aid to Ukraine since February will reach more than $100 billion.)

NATO allies in Europe may wobble as well, as the costs of war mount, gas prices rise in the winter and millions of refugees stream in.

For Ukraine and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization supporters, deciding when to go to the negotiating table to try to bring the military phase of the conflict to an end is a question of pragmatism, strategy and timing.

Lots of factors need to be considered. Which side is in the stronger battlefield position? Which benefits from a continuation of the fighting? Is a decisive Ukrainian victory possible or could there be a reversal of fortunes? Could the war spread geographically or escalate from conventional to nuclear weapons? How committed is NATO? For how long will Ukrainians be willing to fight on, as casualties mount? Will Russia negotiate seriously and can it be trusted to keep its word?

And are there settlement terms that would meet the minimum requirements of both sides?

Charles A. Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, says that even as we aid Ukraine, it's time to think seriously about what a negotiated endgame might look like.

"So far the administration has had it about right: Give the Ukrainians the arms they need to defend themselves, hit the Russians hard with sanctions and bulk up NATO's eastern flank," he says. "But I do think the prospect of a war that continues for the indefinite future runs the risk of escalation because you just don't know what the Russians will do."

(Last week, Ukraine launched its third strike this month deep into Russian territory, apparently unworried about the possibility of escalation.)

Kupchan says a Russian withdrawal from every inch of Ukrainian territory — including Crimea, which it occupied for eight years before the February invasion — is not a realistic or necessary starting point for negotiations. And he thinks Ukraine should consider dropping its bid for NATO membership.

There have apparently been no meaningful negotiations in months and Ukrainian officials said this week that there won't be until Moscow withdraws its troops and faces a war crimes tribunal. Russian officials, including Putin over the weekend, insist they're open to talks. But Russia has set unreasonable conditions — among them, acceptance of its illegal annexation of four Ukrainian territories in late September — and U.S. officials doubt they would negotiate in good faith.

The world is left with a terrible status quo. Ukraine fights fiercely as if the war — and allied help — will go on indefinitely. Russia continues to destroy Ukrainian towns and cities, and perhaps plans a new surge, with few signs of a dent in Putin's power.

We are left looking — so far in vain — for offramps, de-escalators and mutually acceptable compromises that end the carnage and ensure a free, independent Ukraine. It's not time to cut our support for Ukraine, but it is time for both sides to begin laying the groundwork for talks.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

Nicholas Goldberg
Los Angeles Times/(TNS)

Nicholas Goldberg is an associate editor and op-ed columnist for the Los Angeles Times.

Previously:
• 12/12/22 Iran's 'hijab wars' lost on non-feminists?
• 11/10/22 Should I call my doctor 'doctor' or is that passe?
• 10/31/22 Where have all the English majors gone?
• 10/10/22 Did the 23-year-old Columbine attack inspire last week's school shooting in Russia?
• 09/19/22 The real reason Americans love royalty
• 09/14/22 We can't compartmentalize away our apocalyptic future
• 09/12/22 If it costs $23 to enter Manhattan by car, is that fair to lower-income drivers?
• 09/02/22 Twisted Sister's Dee Snider to MAGA 'fascists': Write your own damn songs
• 08/29/22 Shakespeare, mathematics and the monkey who called 911
• 08/15/22 The creepy battle over Charles Manson's paltry estate
• 07/27/22 Why do people believe in conspiracy theories?
• 07/20/22 How would you feel if you lost $58 billion? Would you still buy that superyacht?
• 07/13/22 Are animals people, too?
• 07/06/22 Are Joe Biden -- and Dianne Feinstein -- too old to do their jobs?
• 05/19/22 Huge corporate diversity loss. GREAT
• 04/20/22 When bathrooms have naming rights, has branding gone too far?
• 04/13/22 Why I won't cheer as Germany ends its antiwar experiment
• 04/04/22 In Europe, the war in Ukraine raises the question --- is the past really past?
• 02/22/22 What if the CIA is spying on Americans?
• 02/10/22 Is civility really passe in American politics?
• 01/27/22 Why do murderers have to show 'remorse' to be granted parole?
• 01/25/22 Are you anxious about reentering the post-COVID world? Maybe you have 'cave syndrome'
• 01/11/22 When an anti-vaxxer dies of COVID, is that cause for glib, ironic satisfaction?
• 12/29/21 Can the US strike a balance between isolationism and policing the world?
• 12/16/21 If the Miss America beauty pageant isn't a beauty pageant, then what exactly is it?
• 12/08/21 How did the party of 'Happy Days Are Here Again' become the party of Eeyore?
• 11/11/21 History reveals: Nicholas Kristof for political office? Delusional
• 10/01/21 Think vaccine mandates are controversial? What if police held you down and injected you?
• 09/13/21 If you don't say what they like, protesters show up at your door. Is that OK?
• 08/05/21 Think toxic Cuomo will resign? Think, again!
• 07/14/21 A moral mosquito dilemma in LALA-land
• 06/29/21Is life fair? One-third of Americans think so
• 04/27/21: The Supreme Court debates the all-powerful F-word
• 03/25/21: Do we really need a law mandating gender-neutral toy sections at stores?
• 03/15/21: I've had a cellphone for 25 years. Can I get rid of my landline yet
• 03/15/21: After 365 days of COVID exile, I went back to my office. Here's what I found
• 02/12/21: The preacher and the pornographer: The unlikely, unexaggerated friendship between Jerry Falwell and Larry Flynt
• 02/10/21: Some newspapers are deleting old crime stories to give people fresh starts. Is that wise?
• 12/28/20: Should Bill Cosby's sexual assault conviction be overturned?