Jewish World Review Jan. 26, 2004 / 3 Shevat, 5764
Michael Barone
The shape of things to come
http://www.NewsAndOpinion.com |
What a difference a week makes. Two
weeks ago, Howard Dean was the
front-runner for the Democratic nomination,
well positioned to win the Iowa caucuses
and the New Hampshire primary. The
political news was dominated by Dean's
denunciations of George W. Bush and other
Democrats trying to emulate his tone. But
the surprise showing by John Kerry and
John Edwards in Iowa changed all that. And then President Bush changed it
some more a day later with a combative State of the Union address. This
week, voters of New Hampshire get their turn. But for all the ups and downs,
we're finally starting to see the campaign landscape to come.
The Democrats in Iowa
were competing for the
votes of an electorate
that overwhelmingly (75
percent) opposed the
Iraq war. The
Democratic nominee in
the general election will
be competing for the
votes of an electorate
that has largely
supported the war.
Dean said the nation
was no safer with
Saddam Hussein
captured. Bush
emphatically said it
was and pointedly argued that our military success in Iraq has led to
diplomatic success, as with Libya. "For diplomacy to be effective," Bush
said, "words must be credible, and no one can now doubt the word of
America." Kerry, Edwards, and Wesley Clark have been criticizing Bush's
supposedly unilateral approach. Bush responded by listing 17 countries "that
have committed troops to Iraq." So much for Kerry's talk of a "fraudulent
coalition."
Theme music. Polls show that most voters think Bush was right on Iraq. A
Pew poll this month showed that 65 percent supported the war and that by a
46-to-30 percent margin they felt Bush has taken into account the interests
or views of our allies the right amount rather than too little. Nearly 1 in 5
respondents said Bush had taken our allies' interests or views into account
too much. Chiding Bush for disrespecting allies goes over well with the liberal
professionals who turned out in Iowa. But it's a surefire loser with the general
electorate.
On domestic policy, Kerry and Edwards have been sounding similar themes
in Iowa and New Hampshire. Kerry talks about how he would fight "powerful
interests that stand in your way" the pet theme of his consultant Robert
Shrum, who penned similar lines for Dick Gephardt in 1988, Bob Kerrey in
1992, and Al Gore in 2000. Edwards's stump speech talks of the two
Americas, the powerful and privileged on one hand and "people like you" on
the other. (Edwards was a Shrum client in 1998.) But it's been a long time
since such a theme has won a presidential election. Attacks on big
corporations, insurance companies, and HMOs produce positive responses
in polls but don't seem to evoke strong enough feelings to swing votes for
president. How many Americans today feel crushed under the heel of large
corporations? The Democratic nominee (sorry, there will be no guessing
here) may have to come up with a stronger theme.
But Bush didn't come up with one in his State of the Union address either.
He mentioned, only in passing, his proposal for Social Security personal
retirement accounts and didn't link those with the tax-free health savings
accounts in the Medicare bill passed last year and the tax-free personal
savings accounts he is said to be proposing in his new budget. There is a
common theme here government giving citizens choices so they can
accumulate wealth with a strong appeal to what is now an investor-majority
electorate. But Bush did little to make the case to a much larger audience
than the one watching the Iowa returns.
Recent polls are split on Bush's job rating: Some have him in the high 50s,
some in the low 50s and running about even with a generic "Democratic
nominee." Dean's third-place finish in Iowa and his astonishing election-night
rant make it likelier that the Democrats will choose a nominee with the
capacity to match the generic Democrat. To gauge where the general
electorate is, I look not only at current polls but also at actual vote totals the
2002 popular vote for the House, which has become a good proxy for the
parties' national standing. It was 51 percent Republican and 46 Democratic.
Bush has the advantage, but a Democrat could still win.
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Michael Barone Archives
JWR contributor Michael Barone is a columnist at U.S. News & World Report
and the author of, most recently, "The New Americans." He also edits the biennial "Almanac of American Politics". Send your comments to him by clicking here.
©2004, Michael Barone
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