Jewish World Review Jan. 23, 2004 / 29 Teves, 5764
Michael Barone
After Iowa
http://www.NewsAndOpinion.com |
What worked for John Kerry in Iowa? Will it
work for him in New Hampshire?
Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt spent the
second-to-last week of the Iowa caucus
campaign on the attack. Gephardt had to
attack Dean: His only chance was to win Iowa. But his negative
campaigning erased any chance he had to pick up support beyond his base
of aging industrial union members. Dean didn't have to campaign negatively,
and it turned out that his effort to make the caucuses a referendum on the
Iraq war resolution-something that happened 15 months ago-failed. Three
quarters of caucusgoers opposed the war, and among them Kerry outpolled
Dean.
In this environment, Kerry had several things pitching him forward:
Organization. Kerry always had the third-best campaign organization in
Iowa. His Iowa organizer John Norris, former Democratic state chairman, is
well liked and has many contacts. Early on, he lined on more endorsements
from state legislators than any other candidate. Then legendary organizer
Michael Whouley came in. When public opinion surged away from Dean and
Gephardt and toward Kerry and John Edwards, Kerry had more
organizational resources to translate that support into votes in the caucuses
than Edwards, who built his "one-on-one" organization from scratch. This
may have made the difference between first and second place. Kerry also
has an in-place organization in New Hampshire. Former Gov. Jeanne
Shaheen has brought her troops in for him, and he has brought back Sue
Casey; they're the two who captained Gary Hart's come-from-way-behind
New Hampshire campaign in 1984.
Ads. Kerry seems to have had the most effective ads of any candidate. One
spotlighted his opposition to tax increases on the middle class. Not even
Iowa caucusgoers-who are well to the left of the electorate-want higher
taxes on everybody. That's probably true too, even among Democrats, in
historically taxophobic New Hampshire.
Image. The visuals of Kerry going from event to event in a helicopter and
occasionally piloting it showed him in command in a setting redolent of his
military experience. A helpful metaphor. Will he still use the helicopter in
New Hampshire, where the distance between campaign stops is so much
less than in Iowa?
The war hero. Kerry's constant reminders that he served in the military in
Vietnam threatened to become tiresome; OpinionJournal.com's Best of the
Web Today refers to him always as "the haughty, French-looking
Massachusetts senator who by the way served in Vietnam." But in the week
before the primary, a retired Los Angeles County sheriff's deputy and
registered Republican named Jim Rassman called the Kerry campaign in
Washington. Rassman was a Green Beret in Vietnam who was
saved-fished out of a river under fire-by the wounded Kerry. He thought he
would be asked to work a phone bank. Instead, the Kerry campaign shipped
him to Iowa Saturday, where he spoke at a Kerry rally. Rassman turns out
to be a good and obviously sincere speaker and provided eloquent testimony
about Kerry's character. His appearance made the news in Iowa and
transformed a credential into a narrative. Narrative, as any parent who reads
a bedtime story to small children knows, has power. Kerry may be at risk of
overusing Rassman, who probably doesn't want to tell his story in identical
words to five rallies a day. But his sudden appearance strengthened Kerry's
candidacy.
Howard Dean's implosion-the result of errors, anger, overreliance on the Iraq
war resolution vote-and Dick Gephardt's inability to go beyond his aging
base left the field open to Kerry and Edwards. The Zogby tracking and Des
Moines Register polls accurately measured the surge to Kerry and Edwards,
and you could see it on the ground. On Sunday, I was at an Edwards event
at Drake University in Des Moines with an overflow crowd of 1,000, where
the energy was palpable. Then I went to a Kerry event at the state
fairgrounds with a crowd of 2,000, so large that they had to set up a tent
outside in the 8 degree weather. For the first time, opinion trumped
organization. Dean's "Perfect Stormers" could turn out their "1s"-the people
identified as strong supporters-but they may not have all been 1s anymore,
and Gephardt's union organizers could turn out their guys, but they were
overwhelmed by the Democrats who were surging toward Kerry and
Edwards.
Now in New Hampshire we are guaranteed a broader electorate. Dean's
organizational advantage will be less than in Iowa and Gephardt is out.
Wesley Clark, who had New Hampshire mostly to himself the first three
weeks in January, failed to overtake Dean and seems likely to be overtaken
by Kerry and quite possibly Edwards in the next exit polls. Kerry seems
likely to have the same advantages in New Hampshire that he had in Iowa.
It may turn out that the most important thing about Iowa was not that Dean
was overtaken, but that Kerry edged slightly ahead of Edwards. And the
race in New Hampshire may turn out to be a test of whether Edwards can
get past him or not.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in Washington
and in the media consider "must reading." Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
Michael Barone Archives
JWR contributor Michael Barone is a columnist at U.S. News & World Report
and the author of, most recently, "The New Americans." He also edits the biennial "Almanac of American Politics". Send your comments to him by clicking here.
©2004, Michael Barone
|