Russia in Syria

After the Paris massacres by radical Jihadists the world will be watching Western powers to see if they will respond with an increased military build-up in Syria and Iraq to fight Isis not only from the air but also on the ground. So far, the French are adding to the air attack and trying to rally other Western powers. President Obama has indicated that there will be no change in American policy.

But an equally important question for friends of Israel is how will Israel deal with the new reality of Russia on the ground in the Middle East? You can bet that Israel was not surprised when Russia established a major military base in Syria and began unilateral bombing of enemies of Syrian President Assad. Israeli PM Netanyahu paid a visit to Putin just a week before the Russian incursion. Netanyahu had more than a hunch what was about to happen.

After six and a half years of a frigid relationship between the White House and the Netanyahu Administration, Israel can no longer count on the United States to be on its side in any Middle East conflict as long as Barack Obama remains in the White House. US/Israeli relations are at an historic low. Israel is very much on her own and must have relationships with some of the world's worst actors, including a suddenly imperialist Russia.

How will Israel deal with the new reality in the Middle East? Israel has a line of communication with the Russian command in Syria over airspace. Israel has operated in Syrian air several times in the last month. But Israel must be careful not to accidently step hard on Russian toes.

The facts on the ground in the Middle East changed dramatically when Russia launched its Syrian adventure. Russia is Iran's most powerful ally and Iran is Israeli's worst enemy. Now the two are allied in a war bordering Israel. Iran and Russia are, for the first time in modern history, military allies. Israel's leaders must calculate every move that Russia might make next. Will Russia support Iran supplying arms to Israel's enemies? Will Russia help Iran in its efforts to destabilize Yemen, Egypt, and Jordan? Will Russia ally itself with Kurdish rebels in an effort to punish Turkey and the U.S.?

Or might a new relationship between Israel and Russia serve Israel's interest? Could Russia become a short term brake on Iranian ambitions in the region? Certainly Russia has relationships with the Iranian leadership that neither Israel nor the US will have anytime in the foreseeable future. Might Russian leverage with Iran encourage Iran to moderate her bellicosity? Russia has a stake in avoiding U.S. or Israeli military action against Iran that could embarrass and weaken the Iranian regime.

Netanyahu understands Putin much better than Obama understands Putin. The Israelis know that Putin is ruthless, expansionist, and temperamental. Putin has no respect for Obama, but he may respect Israel and Netanyahu. Israel poses no threat to Russia and is not a player in the European theater where Putin has grand designs of Russian hegemony over the entirety of what was once the Soviet Empire.

For the next fourteen months, before a new administration takes over in Washington, Israel will see the U.S. as good for one thing and one thing only, increased military aid. All too many Congressmen look upon Israel and her American supporters as just another special interest that can be placated with money, or, in this case, increased military aid. Israel is alone in the Middle East with a new gigantic bully on the block…Vladimir Putin. The face of Middle East politics has changed dramatically and Israel will have to accommodate that change, at least until we have a new president in the White House.

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Chris Gersten was Director of the Office of Refugee Resettlement in the Department of Health and Human Services from 1989 until 1993. He is also a former political director of AIPAC.