How thin is GOP House majority?

Thanksgiving is upon us and, three weeks after Election Day, America STILL does not know the makeup of the incoming U.S. House.

Pathetic!

As of Tuesday at 1:35 p.m., the Associated Press reports, Republicans have won 219 seats to the Democrats' 213. At this writing, three seats remain uncalled:

• Republican Congressman John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 207 votes in California's 13th District, with 98% of ballots tallied. (For God's sake, after 21 days, where the Hell are those other votes?)

• In CA-45, Democrat Derek Tran is 581 votes ahead of GOP Congresswoman Michelle Steel.

• Iowa's First District finds Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks edging Democrat Christina Bohannan by 797 votes.

If these margins hold, the new House should include 214 Democrats, 221 Republicans, and a four-seat GOP majority.

But wait!

Florida Republican Matt Gaetz just ditched his seat after abandoning his nomination for U.S. attorney general. Republican Mike Waltz (FL-6) departed to become President Donald J. Trump's National Security Adviser.

These resignations have triggered January 28 primaries and April 1 general elections.

These vacancies shrink the expected Republican conference to 219 seats.

It gets worse:

Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R - New York) is Trump's choice for United Nations Ambassador. Assuming a quick Senate confirmation, she would leave the House and commence diplomacy on January 21.

GOP seats: 218.

Kathy "The Hack" Hochul — New York's hapless, colorless Democrat governor — is in no rush to comfort Republicans. She likely will maximize GOP anxiety by scheduling the latest-possible special election, 90 days hence: Tuesday, April 22.

If everything goes smoothly, the Republican House must govern between Inauguration Day and April Fool's Day with 218 seats and three vacancies. If all 214 Democrats stay united, as does the GOP, Republicans can afford no more than one defection, lest they drop beneath the 217 votes needed to pass anything.

This will turn every decision — from adopting budgets to approving each day's Congressional Record — into a Hitchcockian thriller. If just two Republicans oversleep, get sick, or endure flight delays, major legislation could crash and burn.

Any one or two Republicans also could hijack the entire House until securing whatever ransom buys their cooperation.

Republicans also could squander "safe" special elections. For a cautionary tale, recall how Senator Jeff Sessions (R - Alabama) left in 2017 to become Trump's first attorney general. His seat, in a stalwart-Republican state, was a lock. And then hints and allegations emerged about GOP nominee Roy Moore's unusual habit of courting females as young as 14.

"I don't remember ever dating any girl without the permission of her mother," Moore assured Fox News host Sean Hannity. Suitably appalled voters sent liberal Democrat Doug Jones to the Senate — from Alabama!

Consider another hazard:

House Speaker Mike Johnson's surprisingly weak leadership has earned the scorn of GOP representatives Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia. Add their Nays to Gaetz's and Waltz's absences, and the Louisiana Republican could lack the votes to re-gain the speakership. If so, the House will drift like a ghost ship for days or even weeks until a new captain arises. Meanwhile, Trump's America First legislative agenda would bob aimlessly among the waves.

It would help if Gaetz reconsidered and took his seat. He should chair a Special Committee on Federal Injustice to detail DOJ's long train of abuses and usurpations.

Thus, Gaetz could mitigate, by one seat, the fine mess left by Congressman Richard Hudson (R - North Carolina) and the National Republican Congressional Committee. They should have secured a victory commensurate with Trump's sweeping triumph and Senate Republicans' 100% re-election of incumbents and conquest of four Democrat seats. Hudson and the NRCC failed Trump and Republicans nationwide by botching an excellent opportunity to win a robust working House majority. Trump and Senate Republicans romped. Hudson and the NRCC barely survived. Forthcoming details of their incompetence and pettiness will expose them as this Thanksgiving's biggest turkeys.

© 2026 Deroy Murdock