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One-third of the City's operating budget comes from state and federal aid. Trump will undoubtedly react to a Mamdani victory by slashing — or even totally freezing — federal aid to both the City and the State.
In addition, Mamdani's socialist agenda will make it very hard for the City or the State to borrow long term or even short term on the bond markets. Local tax revenues, that pay for two-thirds of the City budget, are heavily dependent on property tax collections which generated over $32 billion last year. His proposed rent freeze would cause a sharp drop in property tax collections, necessitating both long and short term borrowing to make the budget balance.
New York City, under state law, is a creature of New York State and totally subservient to its laws and wishes.
In fact, the Governor of the State can remove the Mayor, a power last exercised by then Governor Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 when he tried to fire New York City Mayor Jimmy Walker over bribery allegations. Walker resigned before Roosevelt could act.
The daily need of the City and State for federal and state aid to meet its budget obligations as well as the legal power of the governor over the mayor, give both Trump and New York State Governor Kathy Hochul tremendous political and financial leverage over any City mayor.
Should Trump move to cut off federal funds to New York City, it would trigger a financial crisis far greater than that in the 1970s that forced a State takeover of City finances.50 Shades Politics
The fiscal squeeze that would follow a cutoff of federal aid would pose serious political problems for Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, who endorsed Mamdani for mayor.
Hochul, along with the New York State legislature, faces re-election in 2026. She can expect a very strong Republican challenge likely by upstate Congresswoman Elise Stefanik. Stefanik's district borders on Vermont and Canada and encompasses the Adirondack State Park.
Stefanik was originally facing a possible Republican primary against Hudson Valley Congressman Mike Lawler before Trump appointed her as UN Ambassador. But fearing the loss of Lawler's seat, Trump pulled the appointment, clearing the way for Stefanik to run for governor, challenging Hochul.
A federal cut or freeze in aid to New York State would either put Hochul in the position of defending Mamdani's Socialist policies, or trying to rein him in, either a course certain to divide her Democratic support.
It's unlikely that Hochul could win re-election in this environment, opening the door to GOP victory at the state level.
Under Trump's heel, New York City would be governed by rules very similar to those which govern Washington DC, whether because Trump forces the delegation of home rule to Washington or because of the financial realities he would force upon New York City.
Either way, Mamdani's victory would force Trump to step in.
(COMMENT, BELOW)
Dick Morris, who served as adviser to former Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and former President Clinton, is the author of 16 books, including his latest, Screwed and Here Come the Black Helicopters.