I recently reviewed the results of a survey my wife, Eileen Mcgann and I conducted in the mid-1980s for our then client Hillary Clinton. The purpose of the study was to assess how racism and sexism worked among American voters.
We concluded that racism and sexism work totally differently. Racism predisposed voters to support or oppose certain candidates, irrespective of their strengths and weaknesses. But sexism works differently. Almost all voters, we found, were sexist to some degree in that their political views were heavily influenced by stereotypes of men and women.
Even feminist male voters were inclined to see men as more likely to be strong leaders. To see women, as more likely to be compassionate, men, as more likely to be competent in fiscal matters and women as more likely to be emotional than logical.
When we cross tabulated the results with questions to determine the relative positions of the voters on issues like the ERA, abortion, equal pay for women, and so forth, we found very little difference between those who are largely feminist, and those who are basically sexist. But voters in both categories have the same stereotypes of male and female candidates. Even feminist men felt that women were more emotional and less likely to be strong leaders. And even sexist women conceded that women were weaker leaders.
So, we concluded that racism acts as an on/off switch, determining whether people will vote for minority candidates, but sexism was always on, imparting largely the same stereotypes to all voters.
The relevance of this finding for this election is profound. Trump fits the gender based stereotypes of men and women to a T. So he will naturally be perceived as the stronger leader. Harris also fits the stereotype in that she will be perceived as weaker, more flighty, less focused, and more easily swayed by emotional considerations.
So even before the first shot is fired in the election, Trump has a natural advantage with this set of issues.
Were times different, the stereotypes of the candidates would impact voters differently. Were immigrants to the US perceived as poor people, dealt with unfairly by life, in need of a break or another chance, Harris' inherent, gender based perception as compassionate would turn the issue in her favor. So gender-based stereotypes work differently depending on the political environment.
By framing the immigration issue in terms of law and order and emphasizing its criminal justice implications, Trump makes it a big Republican win.