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As Joe Heck Goes... So goes Republican control of the Senate?

Fred Barnes

By Fred Barnes

Published Oct. 23, 2016

As Joe Heck Goes... So goes Republican control of the Senate?

Brigadier General Joe Heck, U.S. Army Reserve, spent last week on active duty at the Pentagon. A doctor, he was assigned to the Joint Staff surgeon’s office. In 2008, he was deployed to Iraq, where he ran an emergency room in a combat hospital outside Baghdad.

Heck, 55, may not have stood out at the Pentagon, where generals are a dime a dozen. But in his full-time job, he's the most important Senate candidate in the November 8 election. If he wins the Nevada Senate seat of retiring Democrat Harry Reid, Republican hopes of keeping control of the Senate will brighten. If he loses, Republicans may be doomed.

Here's the math: Republicans control the Senate, 54-46, today. If Heck wins, they'll have 55 seats, allowing them to lose four seats and still survive with a majority. Republicans may indeed lose four seats, perhaps more, since the deck is stacked against them. They have 24 seats at stake in the election, Democrats only 10.

Heck's role is pivotal because he's the only Republican with a chance of capturing a Democratic seat. Being called to active Army duty and away from the campaign didn't help. Heck hasn't complained. "That's what happens when you have a lot of competing duties," he told me.

Eight GOP seats are in play. Ohio once was, but Rob Portman is now a cinch for reelection. Republicans trail in Illinois (Mark Kirk) and Wisconsin (Ron Johnson). Johnson has rallied, and a comeback is possible, but those two seats are counted as losses for now, reducing Senate Republicans to 52 seats. In Florida, Republicans expect Marco Rubio to be reelected, all the more so now that national Democrats have canceled TV ads for Rubio's opponent. Missouri (Roy Blunt) is probably too Republican for Blunt to lose.

That leaves four seats—two of which Republicans could afford to lose if Heck wins. In Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey) and New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte) both incumbents "are swimming into a strong Trump current," a Republican strategist says. He's referring to an anti-Trump tide. In North Carolina (Richard Burr) things have not gone as well as expected. One poll shows Burr up seven points, another has him tied with Democrat Deborah Ross. In Indiana's open seat, Todd Young is tied with former Democratic senator and governor Evan Bayh. Young is rising. Bayh isn't.

With Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, nothing is assured. But if all goes reasonably well—a very big "if"—and Republicans hold on to two of those four seats, then Heck can be the savior. The assumption here is that Hillary Clinton is elected and thus a 50-50 Senate would be controlled by Democrats.

Does that sound complicated? It should, because it is. What helps Republicans is their candidates have plenty of money. And in many races, the Republican candidate is superior to the Democrat.



That's true in Nevada. Heck's Democratic opponent, Catherine Cortez Masto, is the former Nevada attorney general. But she's not the biggest roadblock Heck must overcome. That's Harry Reid, one of the meanest and shrewdest politicians in America. His goal upon retirement is to leave behind a Democratic-led Senate. His political machine has the task of taking out Heck and electing Cortez Masto.

Heck is finishing his third term as a House member. His district covers a chunk of Las Vegas plus surrounding areas of southern Nevada. As a reservist, he commands a Medical Readiness Support Group in six western states. And now he's running for the Senate. His hands are full.

Until 2014, Nevada had been trending Democratic. It voted twice for President Obama, and Reid turned aside a major Republican effort to oust him in 2010. He's never been terribly popular, but he is effective. He has successfully drawn a growing number of Hispanics into the Democratic party. His reputation as a tough guy, politically speaking, was well earned, both in Nevada and in Washington.

Then came the humiliation of 2014, when Republicans won practically everything in Nevada, including all six statewide offices. Governor Brian Sandoval was reelected with 70 percent of the vote and Republicans took over both houses of the legislature. Heck won reelection by 24 points in his swing district.

The Democratic bench of younger candidates was nearly wiped out. Cortez Masto, 52, was fortunate to have been term-limited after two AG terms. She wasn't tainted as one of the victims in the 2014 slaughter. Her successor as attorney general is Adam Laxalt, grandson of Paul Laxalt, the former Republican governor and senator.

Cortez Masto relies on three issues against Heck: Trump, Trump, Trump. "She has nothing else to run on," Heck says. In a televised debate on October 14, she said Heck was "Donald Trump's biggest supporter" until he disavowed Trump after the "locker room" video became public. "Donald Trump's ship is sinking and Congressman Heck is scurrying off it in a desperate attempt to save his career."

Not only that, but Trump is a "national security risk." And "at the end of the day, [Heck] is supporting Donald Trump"—that is, even after he repudiated Trump. Cortez Masto was the aggressor in the debate. But her fixation on Trump didn't thrill a focus group, which voted 10-1 that Heck had won the debate.

Heck says he endorsed Trump because he'd promised to back the Republican nominee. He has never met Trump, spoken to him, or campaigned with him. "It was a very personal decision," he says, to urge Trump to drop out of the race. His wife was "a victim of domestic abuse in a prior relationship," he explained in the debate.

Her preoccupation with Trump is part of Cortez Masto's cookie-cutter approach to the campaign. She favors "common sense solutions" reached through "bipartisan problem solving." Heck, she says, is a "typical Washington politician" who delivers "typical Washington talking points."

He may be typical but he has a slightly better chance of winning than she does. Scott Reed, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's political boss, says Heck is the best Republican recruit of the campaign. If he wins, Republicans may keep the Senate and thwart Reid's last attack. That's a double whammy.

Fred Barnes is Executive Editor at the Weekly Standard.

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