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ISTANBUL — President Donald Trump claimed in a social media post Monday that Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, hours after Iran fired missiles toward an American air base in Qatar retaliating for U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities with a less-than-furious attack that caused no casualties.
There was no immediate corroborating announcement from either the Israeli or Iranian governments. Trump's announcement followed a streak of social media posts in which he thanked Iran "for giving us early notice" on the missile attack, while also calling it a "very weak response" from Iran. A day earlier, he floated the possibility of "regime change" in Iran - prompting White House officials to later explain that the official U.S. posture that it did not strike the Iranian nuclear sites to bring about a regime change had not changed.
Iran's mission to the United Nations and the Israeli embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Trump's ceasefire announcement.
Iran's armed forces hailed the assault on al-Udeid Air Base on Monday as "decisive" and said it sent a message the country would answer any "aggression." Qatar condemned the attack, calling it a "flagrant violation of sovereignty" and said the missiles were intercepted. Several gulf states closed their airspace after the attack, amid uncertainty about whether more would follow.
But Iran had given numerous public warnings that it intended to retaliate against U.S. bases in the region. And there were several signs that it telegraphed the strike on the air base more directly in advance. Hours before, the United States and Britain issued warnings telling their citizens to shelter in place, and Qatar closed the airspace above its country.
U.S. defense officials said there were no American casualties in the attack on al-Udeid, which involved short- and medium-range ballistic missiles fired from Iran.
It remained to be seen whether Monday's events would, in fact, provide Washington and Tehran with an off-ramp from their intensifying confrontation. After the country's initial, bellicose statements, Iran's Supreme National Security Council framed the attack as limited and proportional, saying it had used the same number of munitions the United States had deployed against Iran over the weekend and targeted a base "far from urban facilities and residential areas in Qatar," according to the Tasnim news agency.
Trump also seemed to downplay the attack. "Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected," he wrote. "I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they've gotten it all out of their "system," and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE."
Writing on Truth Social later Monday, Trump said Iran and Israel had agreed to a "Complete and Total CEASEFIRE" which would begin "when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!"
"Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World," he added.
A senior U.S. official said the blueprint for Monday's ceasefire agreement came from discussions with Iranian officials who made clear to the Trump administration that they would come back to the negotiating table and discuss their nuclear program on the condition that Israel stops bombing them. That required the United States to secure agreement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to halt his bombing campaign, the official said, an onslaught that has wreaked havoc on Iran's missile defenses. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters.
Netanyahu's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Ahead of Trump's ceasefire announcement, there had been no letup in the war between Israel and Iran. An Iranian missile attack against Israel early in the day sparked panic but caused no casualties. Later, Israel carried out what it said were its most "extensive" strikes yet against the Iranian capital, broadening its targets beyond nuclear and ballistic missile sites, and hitting security forces critical to the survival of the government in Tehran.
The targets included "command centers and assets belonging to the Iranian regime's internal security apparatus," as well as Evin Prison, where thousands of political prisoners are held, an Israeli military spokesman said. Israel also struck the entrances to the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility, according to Iranian and Israeli officials, aiming to prevent the transfer of materials from the site, an Israeli official said.
The decision to widen the target list - including by attacking the headquarters of the Basij, a volunteer paramilitary force the government uses to repress dissent - was the latest sign of Israel's effort to destabilize or topple Iran's clerical leadership.
Israeli officials have said regime change is not an "objective" of their campaign while simultaneously encouraging Iranians to rise up against their increasingly battered government. "We believe that there is an opportunity now for them to throw off the fear which has been hoisted upon them by the Iranian regime," said David Mencer, an Israeli government spokesman.
Israel had commenced its attack on Iran earlier this month by killing a top echelon of Iranian commanders and degrading the nuclear and ballistic missile programs, setting the table for the U.S. B-2 bomber strike on three facilities over the weekend. Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel was "very, very close" to completing its goals of eliminating "two concrete threats to our existence: the nuclear threat, the ballistic missile threat."
But on Monday, the Israel Defense Forces released a statement saying it would continue to bomb Tehran in the "coming days," while ordering residents to avoid "weapons production centers, military bases, and security institutions affiliated with the regime."
The shift in Israeli targeting came amid uncertainty about whether it had achieved one of its main objectives: the destruction of Iran's nuclear program, given a lack of clarity about what had become of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium after the U.S. attacks, said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group.
When it came to "regime destabilization," the expectation that Iranians would rise up in protest of the government during the Israeli strikes represented "magical thinking," he added. "There has not been a single protest against the regime." And Israel's targeting of Evin Prison - where dissidents, among them "the best of the best" Iranian activists were locked up, with their families now fearing again for their lives - was indicative of Israel's "shortsighted" strategy, he said.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official overseeing the Middle East during the previous Trump administration, said the Israeli attack on the prison "certainly sends a message to the regime that it should not feel secure and stable, and it implicitly also reflects a clear willingness of Prime Minister Netanyahu to engage in mission-creep."
"But I don't know if they've actually made a decision that regime change is now an actual, strategic objective," he added.
Israel said it hit Evin Prison with a "precision strike." The Center for Human Rights in Iran, which frequently reports on government violations, said in a statement that the strike "caused severe damage to critical areas including the Women's Ward, Ward 8, the infirmary, and the prosecutor's office."
"Prisoners - among them women and children under two years old - are trapped without access to medical care, safe shelter, or essential services," the group said, adding that Iranian authorities were "refusing to transfer the injured to hospitals and are blocking families from reaching their loved ones."
"Instead of facilitating rescue and medical aid, Iranian security forces have intensified repression inside the prison, threatening and attacking injured detainees. Unconfirmed reports of secret prisoner transfers are raising fears of enforced disappearances," the statement added.
Ahmad Ghadyani, the son of political prisoner Abolfazl Ghadyani, who is held inside Evin, said on X that his father told him in a phone call that "all the windows in the ward have been broken" and he believed there was damage to the complex's health facility and the prison door.
Israel said its strikes Monday hit the Revolutionary Guard's Sarallah command center, which is charged with securing Tehran and its surrounding area in times of civil unrest, and is considered one of the Guard's most important component parts. Its forces arrest, interrogate and beat dissidents.
Israel also said it struck the headquarters of the Basij, which Iranians and human rights groups have accused of a wide array of rights violations, including beating peaceful demonstrators and shooting into crowds. The Basij have branches across an array of Iranian institutions, including universities, schools and workplaces.
The Israeli military also said it struck six airports across Iran and damaged runways, underground bunkers and older-generation fighter jets, including F-14s.
An Israeli military official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing military operations, acknowledged that these older jets did not pose a significant threat to Israel's modern fighters. But, he said, Israel wanted to not just set back Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs but also degrade its military capabilities.
"There is still a regime … that can still pose some threats," the official said.