Trump still surging

The Democratic Party is held aloft by support from four basic demographics: Hispanics, blacks, millennials, and single college educated white women.

In 2024, Hispanics deserted the ship in droves and Trump carried 46 percent of their votes. The gender gap also closed among African-American men where Trump gained ten points.

Now, it is the Millennials turn to move toward Trump. A YouGov/Economist survey on May 9-12, 2025 (1700 interviews) shows a ten point improvement in his favorability between April and May. The president's favorable score rose from 38% in April to 48% on May 12.

The Washington Examiner noted that the "surge marked the biggest one-month increase for any demographic surveyed in the poll, and it comes as millennials represent the largest bloc of the electorate."

Millennials (aged 30-44) have had a storied history. While their younger peers, Gen Z voters (under 30) moved to embrace Trump before the 2024 election, Millennials held back and voted for Harris by 51-45.

Undoubtedly influenced by the electoral history of their younger years, when Millennials largely backed Democrats, the age group was reluctant to move to Trump.

But that is changing now.

The Washington Examiner noted that "Democrats struggle to capture the support of millennials, whose support for the Left has drastically declined in recent years.

The Examiner quoted pollster Jeremy Zogby whose research "captured the rupture", Zogby noted that "the coalition of millennials now entering their 30s and 40s who easily pushed former President Barack Obama into two terms have flipped to Trump."

Zogby wrote that "The president scores high among parents raising children — a voting bloc that largely corresponds with millennials who have now entered their 30s and 40s — the same group who helped carry President Obama's victory in 2008. That amounts to a generational flip since the president's first term when those older than 65 were a major source of Trump's support," added Zogby.

He attributes much of Trump's gains among Millennials to a "change in how Americans are finding and consuming news. Those who have stuck with old media such as TV news and print lean away from Trump while new media users and those who rely on social media are joining his coalition."

Zogby explains that his findings reflect "a generational shift in the country — voters under 45 are much less trusting of traditional information sources and have gravitated towards two- to three-hour long free-form podcasts and social media where satirical memes that challenge the national network and print narratives are commonplace. "When it comes down to it, this is arguably the real divide," he says.