Gen Z is politically old before its time

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Men and women have long behaved differently in the political realm, with the former more inclined to vote for Republicans and the latter more likely to support Democrats. But significantly, these differences did not historically apply to 18-to-29-year-olds. For many years, both younger men and women have leaned decidedly left.

No longer. The latest Harvard Youth Poll, the gold standard for studying younger voters, is the most recent poll to make clear there are now distinct political differences separating men and women ages 18–29.

The men of Generation Z, rocked by economic and social crises and impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, have moved to the right, backing President Donald Trump over then-Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 and continuing to favor Republicans. Women ages 18 – 29 reacted differently to the events that shaped their generation — politically, socially, philosophically — resulting in them holding markedly more liberal sensibilities.

The consequences of these divergent political paths are a bifurcated younger electorate afflicted with the same gender polarization that typically characterizes older voters. In other words, Gen Z has aged prematurely — politically, at least.

"One of the biggest things we've seen with the gender split, is really how men and women have diverged ideologically," said Jordan Schwartz, a Harvard sophomore and chair of Harvard Public Opinion Project, during a briefing to unveil the Harvard Institute of Politics' 50th youth survey.

Schwartz added that young men veering right, and young women simultaneously staying or moving further left, has produced a "huge gap" in Harvard's polling, explaining that this gender chasm has "opened up over the past few years" and "has not existed in many of our past polls."

As widely reported elsewhere, including by me, today's young men were deeply affected by a cascade of socially destabilizing events during the formative years of their upbringing, from the Great Recession to the COVID pandemic. Those sentiments have made Generation Z men distrustful of government and institutions, making the disruptive Trump and his promises of the coming " golden age of America" more appealing than his rivals.

Notably, Harvard's data suggests younger women voters have not emerged from the same destabilizing experiences with the same social insecurities, leaving them less suspicious of Democrats, often the defenders of government and institutions (although young women do share some of the same concerns their male counterparts have about the economy generally.)

Consider: the Harvard poll showed that more Generation Z women than men feel socially "connected;" it showed women were slightly more "confident" they would eventually own a home; it showed they were significantly more confident they would eventually find "a long-term romantic partner; and the survey showed women ages 18–29 are more confident than similarly aged men about eventually getting married.

"Young men and young women's experiences through the pandemic have been different. It seems like young women have bounced back a little bit better, they have stronger social networks," Melissa Deckman, author of The Politics of Gen Z and chief executive officer of the Public Religion Research Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, DC, told me. "For some young men, the studies show that they're more socially isolated than young women."

Pollsters and analysts downplay Trump's provocative behavior as a factor in the youth gender divide. However jarring Trump may be to adults old enough to have voted for Republicans Mitt Romney, John McCain or the various Bushes, to voters who were as young as 8 when the president launched his first White House bid a decade ago, he is normal. Trump or no Trump, youth voters care more about policy than personality, I was told, and are likely to render their verdict on the president based on their perception of his performance on the issues they care about.

"It's been almost 10 years since (Trump) came down that escalator, and so for young people, this is the only brand of politics that they know," said Meredith Shiner, a communications consultant in Chicago and lecturer at the University of Chicago who teaches a graduate course in public policy and communications. "This isn't just about approach or tone; this is about policy."

Other surveys and analyses also suggest the differences in partisan preference among younger male and female voters are driven by issues.

Last September, Gallup published "Exploring Young Women's Leftward Expansion," concluding from survey data that "much higher proportions" of female voters ages 18 – 29 have "prevailing liberal perspectives" on key issues than women of the same age group did 10 years previously — on abortion rights; gun rights; climate change and race relations. Generation Z women also have become "more liberal," although "modestly" so, on "the death penalty; healthcare policy; labor unions; taxes; government regulation and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict."

Meanwhile, Generation Z men have either turned right or moved left less than their female counterparts, per Gallup. Similar findings appeared in a post-election Ipsos poll of 18 to 29-year-olds , fielded mid to late November and developed by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University.

The widening divide is also driven by the men and women of this age group ranking issues differently.

"Young women were more likely to prioritize health care and climate change, and those are issues on which youth trusted Democrats more," Alberto Medina, analysis coauthor of the Tufts-directed Ipsos youth survey, told me in a text message exchange. "Young men were more likely to prioritize jobs and immigration, and those were issues in which youth trusted Republicans more."

If young voters are like previous generations, this split could get even wider as they age, turning today's gender gap into a gender gulf.

(COMMENT, BELOW)

David M. Drucker is columnist covering politics and policy. He is also a senior writer for The Dispatch and the author of "In Trump's Shadow: The Battle for 2024 and the Future of the GOP."

Previously:
• Woke baggage weighs down Dems' economic message
• Congress began ceding power to presidents long before Trump
• Reagan Republicans didn't disappear. They were just demoted