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President Donald Trump has recast our political landscape more than any figure in decades.
He's jumbled the traditional coalitions we have become used to, yes - most notably by pulling working-class voters more toward the GOP and pushing more-educated voters toward the Democratic Party.
But as much as that, he's caused the Republican Party to be defined by one man: himself. And nothing exemplifies that like that fact that Republicans have fared relatively well when he's on the ballot (winning 2 of 3 presidential elections) and almost always poorly when he's not. His voters just don't turn out when they can't vote for him.
So the question then becomes, what happens when the Trump era is over? What happens when this beacon for much of the country is no longer in the game? He's term-limited in 2028, and Republicans will need someone to pick up his mantle.
Trump has suggestively floated seeking a third term in 2028, despite that currently being unconstitutional. Some have wagered he could run as vice president and effectively run the country despite not having the No. 1 job - similar to the arrangement that Russian President Vladimir Putin had for a time - or even get around the Constitution by ascending to the presidency when the Republican winner steps aside.
But let's set aside those wild ideas for now. Who could grab hold of this party and carry it forward in 2028?
Below are the names that make the most sense.
• Tucker Carlson
Carlson has expressed little interest in ever running for president. And he's a somewhat diminished figure in mainstream circles since his unceremonious exit from Fox News. But those mainstream circles matter less and less in the GOP, and no media figure riles the MAGA base like Carlson does. He also did crack the door to it last year, saying of a potential 2028 run: "Yeah, I don't think I'd be very good at it. But I would do whatever I could to help." At the same time, you have to wonder if Carlson's increasingly extreme turn might turn off even many MAGA supporters, as it apparently did his Fox News superiors.
• Vivek Ramaswamy
The 2024 GOP presidential candidate's big foray into government was supposed to be teaming up with Elon Musk to run the Department of Government Efficiency. Then he clashed with Musk and caused a stir by criticizing Americans' work ethic and promoting skilled, legal immigration. He ultimately decided to run for Ohio governor in 2026 instead. The early polling suggests he's a significant favorite to win the GOP primary, which would make him the favorite in the general election in red-leaning Ohio. It might be tough to turn around and run for president so shortly after winning, but Ramaswamy clearly has the ambition. And winning a governorship would legitimize someone often dismissed as a gadfly.
• Kristi L. Noem
It was just months ago that the then-South Dakota governor's story about killing her dog and her bizarre recollection of purportedly meeting with Kim Jong Un seemed to sap any chance she had of becoming Trump's running mate. But time does heal wounds in politics. She's now been confirmed as Homeland Security secretary, and she's clearly made a call to engage in the kind of performative politics that endear a politician to much of the GOP case. (A couple examples: She reportedly taunted Canada about becoming the 51st state while visiting the northern border, and she's frequently been seen in attention-grabbing and militarized attire while playing up deportation efforts.) Right now the sharp drop in U.S.-Mexico border crossings is probably the best political story for the administration, and if that continues, perhaps voters could turn to Noem?
• Glenn Youngkin
The Virginia governor's stock isn't as high as it once was, and it's quite possible that Republicans could fare poorly in the 2025 elections in his state. (That election usually swings in the opposite direction of the prior presidential race.) That could spell trouble for any national ambitions Youngkin might have. But if the Trump years go politically poorly for the GOP and the party somehow decides to revert to a more standard-issue politician in 2028, Youngkin checks a lot of boxes. He's also term-limited, so he doesn't have much else to do.
• Nikki Haley
It's also tough to make a case for the 2024 runner-up, absent a wholesale sudden shift in the Republican Party's course. The former South Carolina governor is a much better fit for bygone eras of the GOP (i.e. the Reagan and George W. Bush eras), and her efforts to pass muster in its current one have been awkward. She also seemed to alienate Republicans as the 2024 primaries wore on; it wasn't just that voters liked Trump better, it was that many of them came to actively dislike her. But she was the runner-up last time, and she has frequently demonstrated real political talent.
• Marco Rubio
Serving in Trump's Cabinet is a difficult exercise for any traditional conservative Republican politician. And arguably nobody faces as many difficult choices ahead as his secretary of state. Many of Rubio's rather hawkish past foreign policy views are anathema to where the party is headed, particularly on issues like the war in Ukraine. Rubio needs to decide how much he wants to go along with things that clearly run counter to his previous principles. Even if he can navigate the years ahead, he's still an awkward fit for the Trump-era GOP. But the former Republican savior-in-waiting has got a real opportunity to reassert himself as an option for the GOP's future.
• Ron DeSantis
While Haley was the technical runner-up in the 2024 primaries, it might be more apt to affix that label to the Florida governor. He didn't get as many votes largely because he bowed to reality earlier than she did and dropped out. But what that also meant is that he retained the goodwill of many GOP primary voters. Indeed, DeSantis always remained rather popular - almost as popular as Trump; he just wasn't Trump. At the same time, it's difficult to see his campaign as anything amounting to a success. He was stilted and often seemed to be trying too hard. We could see a big test of his future in 2026, when his wife, Casey DeSantis, could run to succeed him as governor - and face Trump-backed Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Florida).
• Brian Kemp
No potential hopeful presents as interesting dynamics as the Georgia governor. He has frequently run afoul of Trump, mostly stemming from his unwillingness to play into Trump's false claims about 2020 election fraud. But unlike almost every other Republican who has bucked Trump, Kemp not only survived but thrived. He defeated a Trump-backed former U.S. senator by 52 points (!) in a 2022 primary, before coasting to reelection. He also remains quite popular in a swing state. The importance of Georgia led to something of a détente between the two men late in the 2024 campaign. Kemp appears to be the rare politician who can appeal to virtually all sides of the party. But that's if he can keep it up. As DeSantis showed in 2024, that's not so easy when the magnifying glass is upon you.
• Donald Trump Jr.
It's probably more unlikely than likely that the president's son would actually run. He seems much more comfortable in the role of provocateur than politician, and he was a big early booster of picking JD Vance for vice president. But if Trump Jr. did run, he would instantly be formidable. The early polls that have included him generally show him running second to Vance. And we shouldn't need to remind people how often partisans turn to family members when the career of their beloved politician is over.
• JD Vance
Putting Vance one spot ahead of Trump Jr. and two spots ahead of Kemp really belies the fact that he's simply in a tier all by himself. Vice presidents are often next-in-line, and Vance punches a lot of the buttons that any Trump successor will need to. He's provocative, unapologetic and focused like a laser on the base. He has arguably clung even more to the "America First" ethos than Trump has. And should Vance become the heir apparent, it would be rather remarkable. He not only is a former strong Trump critic whose political career began just a few short years ago, but his early reviews were far from sterling (including a badly underperforming 2022 Ohio Senate campaign). Worries about how Vance might play to the broader electorate could give Republicans some pause, but that's not really been the Trump-era GOP's overriding concern.
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