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President Donald Trump welcomed Jordan's King Abdullah II to the White House on Tuesday at an awkward moment for the Middle Eastern leader, who is trapped between Trump's explosive plan to take over Gaza and push its Palestinian residents elsewhere and destabilization at home should he give in.
Jordan is a long-standing U.S. ally in the region, heavily dependent on U.S. aid and also a friendly host to U.S. intelligence agencies that have range there to operate from a Mideast outpost. But as Trump has demanded that Jordan and Egypt take in Gaza's residents and pushed over the last week the goal of a U.S. takeover of the war-battered territory, Abdullah's options have looked increasingly impossible.
The Hashemite kingdom is already about half-Palestinian, having taken in waves of refugees over generations of Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Any further influx would probably destabilize Jordan's already shaky economy and political situation.
But defying Trump could risk the patronage of Jordan's major supporter. Reflecting Abdullah's tricky situation, the king was keeping a low profile during his trip to Washington, avoiding a joint news conference with Trump and trying to avoid moments where he could be twisted into taking a public position on the issue.
"The king has an impossible circle to square," said Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Mideast negotiator who is now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "He needs to find a way to say no to Trump elegantly and in a way that doesn't fundamentally undermine his bilateral relationship. I don't know whether he can do that."
After Trump unveiled his surprise U.S. takeover plan for Gaza following a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, the U.S. leader has doubled and tripled down on it, despite subordinates' efforts to partially walk it back by saying any displacement of Palestinians would be temporary.
Trump, instead, has said that the Palestinians in Gaza would not be allowed back because their new homes elsewhere would be so attractive. The idea is explosive for a long list of reasons, first and foremost because many of Gaza's residents have no interest in abandoning their land. Critics have declared that any forced expulsion would meet the definition of ethnic cleansing.
"We knock them all down. We just create something. No more Hamas. There is no Hamas there. There is nobody there. We move them into beautiful areas of the Middle East. I'd like to go to Egypt. They have a lot of land. I'd like to go to Jordan. I'd like to go to others. And we'll build beautiful communities," Trump told Fox News in an interview that was broadcast Monday.
Asked whether Gaza's residents would have the "right to return" to their homes, Trump said, "No, they wouldn't, because they are going to have much better housing."
Trump told reporters Monday that he expected to be able to convince Abdullah to take in Palestinians.
"I do think he'll take, and I think other countries will take also," Trump said. "They have good hearts."
He has indicated that he could use the $1.5 billion in annual assistance that Jordan receives from the United States as leverage to force Jordanian leaders to acquiesce.
Abdullah's ability to respond to Trump's demands was further hampered Monday by Trump's appearing to give a green light to Netanyahu's potential restart of the war against Gaza following three weeks of ceasefire. Hamas has been releasing Israeli hostages but declared a halt on Monday.
Trump told reporters Monday that if Hamas doesn't release all the hostages by Saturday "at 12 o'clock" - it wasn't clear whether he meant noon or midnight - he would suggest that Netanyahu cancel the ceasefire.
"I would say cancel, it and all bets are off and let hell break out," he said. "If they're not returned - all of them, not in drips and drabs not two and one and three and four and two."
Jordanian leaders, meanwhile, have been involved for more than in a year in a painstaking effort to restore peace to Gaza and to push for an eventual Palestinian state - a step that would be imperiled if Gaza is permanently deprived of Palestinians.
If Trump were to cut off funding to Jordan, the kingdom would have to turn elsewhere. Saudi Arabia is one potential backer, although the two countries have a tense history and Abdullah is unlikely to want to be too dependent on the wealthy Gulf nation. Some Jordanians have also suggested that Russia or China could step in - a development that would be a setback for U.S. efforts to curtail their global influence.
Some Mideast experts have struggled to understand Trump's broader strategy in his vow to take over Gaza, if there is one.
"In one fell swoop, he's tethered the United States to a proposal which at best is voluntary, slash forced transfer, and worst, ethnic cleansing," Miller said. "He's undermined relations with the Egyptians and the Jordanians. He's validated the fantasies of the Israeli right wing, and he sent a signal to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] that, you know, hey, I can announce the fact that I'm taking over territory X without any justification now."
(COMMENT, BELOW)