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The Chiefs and Eagles did not reach the Super Bowl by being reactive or complacent. And as the NFL's waiver period reopens and the offseason kicks off in earnest, expect both teams to be aggressive in their attempts to reach that pinnacle again.
The overall quality of the upcoming free agent class is underwhelming, and it's unlikely we see nearly as many blockbuster trades as in recent years. Already, some well-regarded executives are whispering about where they believe the leading free agents might be headed. The upcoming months should be particularly telling for those franchises in desperate need of a quarterback, with the options there rather bleak. And particular attention will be focused on the AFC North, where Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has ramped up a PR campaign to try to cajole ownership into keeping top talent - I warned you that was coming - and where disgruntled Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett spent Super Bowl week making the case for why the team should trade him.
After taking the temperature of executives who tend to have a good feel for such matters, I have no shortage of prognostications for the upcoming league year, concerning the above topics and more. Here are six big things to watch for, plus a few other notes as the offseason gets underway.
• Garrett is gone
The Browns are talking tough about keeping Garrett, but four executives I spoke with all agreed he's gone. And several of them believe the Eagles will land him. Philly is short on edge talent, and pairing Garrett with their defensive tackles would be massive. "They're going have to trade him," one longtime NFL executive said of the Browns. "They can't win anything with Garrett and he's not going to back down. He's made his money, and he's got them by the" - well, you know.
"It's going to be a win-win," said one AFC general manager, who is not permitted to speak about potential transactions involving other teams. "They're going to get two [first-round picks] for him, and he'll get to a winning team." That executive predicted that Browns GM Andrew Berry will trade Garrett to the Eagles and GM Howie Roseman, for whom he used to work; "if he does Howie a solid, maybe Howie will bring [Berry] back a year from now when [Browns owner Jimmy] Haslam fires everybody," the GM said.
• Burrow's brow will be furrowed
Burrow has front office officials around the league chattering about the lengths he is going to make the case for the Bengals keeping free agent wide receiver Tee Higgins and free agent tight end Mike Gesicki, while also extending the deals of fellow wideout Ja'Marr Chase and pass rusher Trey Hendrickson. "We have the cap space to get it done," Burrow practically pleaded during his pre-Super Bowl media blitz. That, of course, doesn't mean Bengals owner Mike Brown will spend big.
"Burrow is going to be pissed," a second GM predicted. "No way they are keeping more than two of those four." Multiple executives I spoke with predicted Higgins will land at least $30 million per season. "I think he's going to New England," the first GM said. Patriots owner Robert Kraft "took a lot of s--- for not spending any money, rightfully so, and I hear they really want this guy."
• The Chiefs will address their offensive line
Expect former top guard-turned-top left tackle Joe Thuney to get a reworked contract after saving the Chiefs' season by moving to the edge. The Chiefs' brass expects to lose guard Trey Smith to the open market, from everything I gather - multiple executives pointed to Tennessee as a potential landing spot - but I doubt Kansas City stands pat. That front office traded for former Ravens starting tackle Orlando Brown Jr. a few years back, and Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley is coming off his best and healthiest season in years. Given his lengthy injury history, he could be a perfect fit as a stopgap in Kansas City.
"Doesn't that just seem like what Andy Reid would do to fix his biggest need?" said the first GM. Predicted the second GM: "I think they get Stanley or [Vikings tackle Cam] Robinson."
• Tag, Sam is it
Sam Darnold's brutal play in Week 18 and the playoffs had many writing him off in Minnesota. Not so fast. Several executives from quarterback-needy teams, who would have at least some interest in Darnold, suggested he's not going anywhere. I hear that J.J. McCarthy, who lost his entire rookie year to injury, still has significant work to do to rebuild his body, let alone adjust to the NFL. "They have to tag Darnold," the first GM said, "Those guys aren't stupid."
An agent for another free agent signal caller said: "Darnold will get the transition tag. It just makes too much sense. … Owners don't like to sign guys to offer sheets, and if they do, Minnesota can string it out for five days deciding to match, and what if the other quarterbacks are gone by the time they decide? Can you really take that risk in March?"
• Cousins holds the cards
Make no mistake: Kirk Cousins will not be back in Atlanta next season. It will be one and done there for him, after signing that four-year, $180 million free agent deal a year ago. However, as much as the Falcons would love to get this over with to limit any drama around quarterback Michael Penix Jr., Cousins has a no-trade clause and is in no rush for a resolution, coming off an injury-marred season (his salary is set either way). Any deal probably would require at least some contract gymnastics. This resolution will be on his terms, and after being paired with a rookie play-caller in Atlanta, who used him in some odd ways, bank on Cousins landing next with a proven offensive coordinator.
If the Rams move off Matthew Stafford - via his retirement or a trade - that would be an obvious fit schematically and otherwise. Rams Coach Sean McVay, of course, was with Washington when Cousins was drafted.
• Mack's going back?
As mentioned, this is a weak free agent class. Chargers pass rusher Khalil Mack is one of the few headliners, and he is poised to fare quite well in this market despite his advancing age. Crazy as it might sound, don't rule out a return to Chicago for the 33-year old. The Bears gave up serious draft capital to land him from the Raiders in 2018; they later dealt him to the Chargers for far less. But this league can move in mysterious ways; Chicago wants pass rush help, has money to spend and is under pressure to win with quarterback Caleb Williams on his rookie deal. Look for the Chargers to move on from always-injured pass rusher Joey Bosa as well.
• Receiver rumblings
I continue to hear the 49ers will end up trading Deebo Samuel, concluding a saga that has been going on for more than a year as they engaged in varying levels of trade talks. … Both general managers I spoke with said they heard the Rams will eat at least $5 million of Cooper Kupp's salary to facilitate a trade, and while teams still have interest in the oft-injured playmaker, the GMs wondered if that will be enough to move him, given the terms of his brutal three-year, $80 million contract. … Seattle trading one of its receivers also wouldn't surprise the executives with whom I spoke.
• QB chatter
The Saints, who are in about as horrendous a cap situation as imaginable, are letting those who inquire know that they would be willing to play this season with Spencer Rattler if someone wants to take veteran Derek Carr off their hands. He also has a terrible contract, and nothing the Saints do this offseason will be easy. …
Book at least three quarterbacks to be taken in the first round of April's draft. There is just too much demand and not enough supply. I told you a year ago that Colorado's Shedeur Sanders would be a top selection, and Miami's Cam Ward will join him near the top of the first round. After Senior Bowl week, add another. Mississippi's Jaxson Dart "is going in the first round," the first GM said. "There's going to be three. I guarantee you." Another executive said: "I'm hearing the same thing as everyone else in Mobile [where the Senior Bowl is played]. I wouldn't take Dart that high, but he's going on the first night." …
After years in the abyss, I'm hearing some positive reviews of Jimmy Garoppolo's limited recent film. In this modest market, I bet he does okay. He's spent time in the systems of Kyle Shanahan and McVay that teams keep trying to mimic by hiring their assistants as head coaches. Garoppolo already has those systems down.
Jason has covered the National Football League and its franchises for nearly 20 years, for The Washington Post, NFL Network and CBS Sports.
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