What was the impetus for the Hamas ceasefire?

TEL AVIV — The ceasefire deal in the war between Israel and Hamas this week reflected a shift within the [terrorist] group's internal dynamics: With its senior leadership dead, it was Hamas' political representatives abroad who led the negotiations over a conflict started by hard-line commanders inside Gaza.

Hamas negotiators in Doha, Qatar, still coordinated closely with military leaders in Gaza, and the deal required their approval. But 15 months of fighting have depleted the group's military strength, sapped its political influence and opened a void in leadership inside the Gaza Strip.

"This is a new pattern of decision-making in Hamas, which means that the outside leadership has more impact than they had four or five months ago," said Michael Milstein, a former adviser to the Israeli military on Palestinian affairs.

Israel says it killed military commander Mohammed Deif and political chief Ismael Haniyeh last summer. Two months later, in the biggest blow to the movement, Israel killed Yahya Sinwar, the architect and leader of Hamas's deadly attack of Oct. 7, 2023, that triggered Israel's ferocious war.

Sinwar had been appointed to replace Haniyeh, a promotion that suggested that Hamas' Gaza-based faction was maintaining control. Israel believes Sinwar's brother Mohammed, also based in Gaza, has replaced Deif.

But no one, in Gaza or abroad, has replaced Sinwar, seen in previous rounds as the hard-line voice and deciding vote. The Israeli campaign has hollowed out the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, and remaining leaders face the threat of Israeli assassination.

That left the negotiations to Khalil al-Hayya, who was Yahya Sinwar's deputy, and his four-person team, all of whom are from Gaza but living abroad, and Mohammed Sinwar in Gaza, according to regional officials and people familiar with the negotiations.

"Today Khalil al-Hayya is considered the head of the Hamas movement in Gaza" and is "strongest at this stage" at the political and diplomatic level, said a person who worked for Yahya Sinwar and remains close to Hamas. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters.

Hayya's team included senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamed and Mohammed Darweesh. "There are people outside of that immediate circle [negotiating team] that pull strings and have power and influence within the movement," said Gershon Baskin, who helped negotiate the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit from Hamas captivity in 2011.

Baskin named longtime leader Khaled Mashal, head of the Hamas bureau abroad, and Mousa Abu Marzouk, another senior official. The Shura Council, a body of senior Hamas officials, also had to be consulted.

Israeli media often describes Mohammed Sinwar, a hard-liner like his brother, as the new head of Hamas in Gaza. But Avi Kalo, a former Israeli military intelligence official, said the balance of power has shifted to Hamas leaders based abroad, largely in Doha.

Mohammed Sinwar's "power is driven by his controlling the battlefield and commanders, but he does not have the same mandate as the Hamas leadership outside," he said. "That shifting dynamic, coupled with pressure from Trump and Qatar, generated new compromises from Hamas that has led us to this situation."

Baskin described the Israeli focus on Mohammed as politically expedient, "as it's very easy for the Israelis to create the evil devil who's in charge of everything … that if we kill that person, everything will be fine."

Still, in the hours before the ceasefire deal was announced Wednesday, members of the Hamas political office were in communication with the group's military leadership in Gaza, including during a meeting with the Qatari prime minister, to get final approval on the agreement, according to an official briefed on the talks who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal discussions.

Fighters led by Hamas streamed out of Gaza early on Oct. 7, 2023, to kill some 1,200 Israelis in communities near the enclave and take 250 hostage. About 100 hostages are believed to remain in Gaza. Israel has killed more than 46,500 Palestinians and flattened much of the densely populated enclave in the 15 months since.

The agreement has three phases. The first is an initial 42-day ceasefire and the gradual release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for an undetermined number of Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons. Israel is to begin pulling back its troops in Gaza and allowing a surge of humanitarian assistance.

Remaining Israeli hostages and additional Palestinian detainees are to be released in the second phase. The thorniest issues, still unresolved, are left to the third phase, when reconstruction and new governing and security structures in Gaza are supposed to be implemented.

The deal does not address who will rule Gaza going forward. Without a political solution for Gaza and the … West Bank, critics say, it's likely to collapse.

Pressure from President-elect Donald Trump, a renewed push by the Biden administration and domestic challenges facing both Israel and Hamas helped get a deal over the finish line. Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle East envoy, applied new pressure on the Israeli negotiating team, according to a diplomat who was briefed on the talks.

Hamas's position, meanwhile, was weakened by mounting public anger and pressure to compromise.

The Hamas negotiating team was more open to terms that the group had previously rejected outright, according to the diplomat, such as allowing a phased withdrawal of Israeli troops from security zones.

"The humanitarian situation was obviously having a big impact," said the diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive talks.

Palestinians in Gaza received the ceasefire with mixed emotions. In the hours immediately after the announcement Wednesday, deadly Israeli strikes continued across the Strip. While celebrations erupted, people kept their hopes modest. Some planned to return to bombed-out homes or to bury their dead.

The deal does not end the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not ruled out returning to the battlefield.

Hayya did not call the ceasefire a victory, as Hamas has after reaching ceasefires with Israel in the past.

"In this historic moment, we extend words of pride and honor to our people in Gaza," he said in a televised address from Doha on Wednesday.

Mouin Rabbani, a nonresident fellow at Qatar's Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies, said Hamas can spin its survival as a win. Israel vowed to eradicate the group, but "it is still standing."

Much uncertainty remains. Even in its weakened state, Hamas is still the dominant political force in Gaza. Netanyahu has refused to propose a postwar political plan for the Strip. He has ruled out the return of the U.S.-backed Palestinian Authority.

"The big question here that no one has an answer to, and I think that Hamas outside [the enclave] itself doesn't know for sure, [is if] the people inside of Gaza are going to be able to implement this deal." Baskin said.

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