http://www.jewishworldreview.com | (KRT) Consumer backlash against the creation of a 411 directory of cell-phone numbers this year may have weakened it to the point that it will be useless by the time it comes out, some experts are saying.
"It's basically dead," said Roger Entner, an analyst with Yankee Group, a telecommunications research firm in Boston.
"A directory is only valuable as long as the person you're looking for is in it," he said. "It's less than an even chance you'll find someone. Forget it - you're better off playing the lottery."
Carriers are backing away, skittish about the prospects for tighter regulation and uncertain about the financial prospects of what was touted as a moneymaker.
The tipping point was reached when Sprint PCS, the nation's No. 3 carrier, and No. 6 Alltel Wireless said Jan. 14 they would not submit their customers' numbers to a national directory this year.
The two carriers were following in the footsteps of Verizon Wireless, the nation's No. 2 carrier and the only carrier to oppose a directory from the start. Verizon Wireless Chief Executive Officer Denny Strigl last year called it "a dumb idea" because consumers didn't want it.
Together, the three carriers serve 45 percent of the estimated 170 million Americans who use cell phones. Sprint and Alltel left the door open to participating in a directory in 2006 but Verizon vows it will never submit its customers to it.
Consumer fury is driving regulations. California passed a law last fall requiring wireless carriers to get permission in writing from cell-phone users before collecting their numbers, and Texas and the state of Washington have introduced cell-phone directory bills. Federal legislation is expected in the upcoming Congress.
Sprint pulled back to see how the regulatory actions play out, Sprint spokesman Dave DeVries said. Cell-phone users got the wrong idea about the directory, fearing their numbers would be handed to telemarketers or that their number would be listed even if they didn't want it, he said.
Only people who wanted their numbers listed would be included and telemarketers would not get access to it, industry representatives said. The laws add unnecessary expenses, they said.
The carriers' pullback means fewer people will get the chance to sign up for the directory, said Michael Voellinger, vice president of wireless services for Telwares Communications, a Florida consulting firm.
"From a viability perspective, the results are going to be so diluted, it's not going to be very effective," he said.
More than half of Americans opposed the establishment of a directory of wireless numbers, and 56 percent would opt out of publishing their numbers, according to a TNS/Truste survey in October.
Not everyone agrees. According to Pierz Group, a research organization serving information services like directories, 53 percent of Americans would list their numbers with a mobile 411 service if their numbers were not published on the Internet or sold to third parties, things the carriers promise.
Directory assistance charges for a wireless 411 also could pump new revenue into an industry that may be running out of new customers and needing ways to grow. Pierz estimates a wireless directory could bring in $2 billion to carriers by 2008.
The fourth- and fifth-largest carriers, T-Mobile and Nextel Communications, are continuing to work on getting out the directory later this year.
"It's good for customers like small businesses and college students because they'll be listed for free," T-Mobile spokesman Bryan Zidar said.
Businesses that want their cell phones listed can sign them up on regular and online directories, said Nancy Clark, Verizon Wireless president for the Great Plains region.
The nation's largest carrier, Cingular Wireless with 46 million customers, supports the idea but might be having second thoughts.
"It may not happen in 2005," spokesman Chris Combs said. Cingular will put its customers in a directory only "if it makes sense financially," he added.
"For all practical purposes, it's probably dead for now, and that's the problem - `for now,''' said Janee Briesemeister, director of the EscapeCellHell.com campaign of Consumers Union that has criticized the directory as an invasion of privacy.
All the wireless carriers insist that only people who sign up for the directory would be listed, but Briesemeister said, "If they're willing to do that with a promise, what's wrong with having laws that say that?" Regulations would penalize the carriers if they go back on their word, she said.
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