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Activists fear complacency by supporters

http://www.jewishworldreview.com | (KRT) President Bush's re-election victory, and the gains by Republicans in November's elections, are presenting conservative and liberal activists with a serious challenge: Keeping up excitement and donations among their supporters, despite the risk of complacency on one side and despair on the other.

Fund raising and membership often shoot up when part of the population feels its interests threatened, analysts say. Liberal groups, such as Planned Parenthood and Greenpeace, have expanded dramatically under Republicans, for example, while the National Rifle Association and similar groups doubled in size during Bill Clinton's presidency.

"It's been true - boogeymen always work the best in this business," said Robert Blaemire, president of Blaemire Communications, a Democratic political consulting firm based in Reston, Va. "If the sky is falling and your money can prevent the sky from falling and you believe the sky is falling, you're more likely to give."

Liberals, of course, have more reason to feel under siege now. But they also may feel hopeless and depleted after having sunk enormous time, energy and money into the Democrats' losing efforts in November, according to some of those with the most at stake.

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"Fund raising is assumed to be better when you lose, but there are many times when it is not," said Steven Groeninger, director for direct marketing for the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence. "There are times when we see donors who really need to be rallied, because they question whether we can get anything done with President Bush in office for four more years."

Groeninger noted that donors who support gun control did not significantly increase their giving after the ban on assault weapons expired in September with the acquiescence of the Republican-led Congress, an event that could have been expected to trigger an outpouring of liberal support.

It is too early to say with certainty how the election will affect fund raising and activism. Expected battles over immigration, Social Security, Supreme Court vacancies and other hot-button issues are likely to generate spurts of intense activity.

But organizations on both sides are worried, and they are doing what they can to ensure their troops' energy does not flag after an exhausting campaign.

Already on their heels from a presidency and Congress controlled by Republicans, liberals say they urgently need an outpouring of money and support to stem that tide.

When Democrat Al Gore lost to Bush in 2000, environmental groups such as the Sierra Club saw a 50 percent increase in membership and donations. But liberal organizations are not reporting the same surge in the weeks since Bush's re-election, and that has them worried.

In e-mails and fund-raising letters and on Web sites, liberals argue that with Bush and a GOP-led Congress so firmly in control, more effort than ever is necessary to block conservative initiatives.

"An anti-choice White House, Congress and closely divided Supreme Court mean only one thing: Pro-choice Americans must stand up and speak out today to protect the right to privacy and right to choose," says one message from NARAL Pro-Choice America, a group that supports abortion rights.

The Sierra Club strikes a similar tone. "The most anti-environmental Congress and president in a generation will resume their assault on our nation's air, water, and natural heritage in 2005," the group says on its Web site. "You can make a difference."

Some liberals say the key is to talk about the issues that matter to people rather than to vilify individual leaders.

"We're focusing on what we stand for rather than what we stand against," said Matthew Sherrington, development director for Greenpeace. "We're talking now about what is right and what is wrong, and what the environment has to do with it."

One recent set of Greenpeace mailings does not name names but instead features photographs of huge smokestacks, oil spills and destroyed forests with the message "Hate this?" Next to those appear photos of a whale swimming in clean water, a clear sky and the Amazon rain forest with the words "Love this!"

Meanwhile, conservative groups - including gun-rights organizations and anti-abortion groups - are urging supporters to stick with the fight even though they seemingly face few threats to their interests. The GOP victories present a rare opportunity for historic change, they say, and this is no time to back off.

Fund raisers for conservative groups acknowledge that their base could grow complacent during Bush's second term. They will stress a message of "protecting their power," said Richard Norman, head of a conservative direct-mail firm.

"There's sort of an urgency to strike while the iron is hot," Norman said. "Everyone pretty much understands that politics and ideological trends swing like a pendulum. So while the Republicans and conservatives are in control at this point, we know that is only going to be for a matter of time."

Another conservative strategy is to argue that threats can come from anywhere - if not from a President John Kerry, then perhaps from Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass.

"Certainly there's a demographic out there that activates when there's more of a threat," said National Rifle Association spokesman Andrew Arulanandam. "But I think that NRA members and gun owners in general are very politically savvy, and they understand that a threat does not necessarily come from the top - it can come from any member of Congress or a variety of different avenues."

After the election, Moral Majority founder Rev. Jerry Falwell announced he is forming a broader group, the Moral Majority Coalition, "to utilize the momentum of the Nov. 2 elections to maintain an evangelical revolution of voters who will continue to go to the polls to `vote Christian.'"

Another conservative group, the National Federation of Independent Businesses, which represents small business, also is pleased with the election.

Yet without warning explicitly against complacency, it urges its members, "As your newly elected lawmakers prepare to take office, take a moment to say hello and remind them of the issues most important to you. Remember to keep the voice of small business strong."

Activism and donations from all sides are likely to pick up somewhat when Congress begins voting on politically divisive topics over the coming year.

An early flash point is likely to be the fight over Bush's nominee for chief justice. The current chief justice, William Rehnquist, is expected to resign not long after he swears in Bush for his second term Jan. 20.

NARAL Pro-Choice America's Web site already showcases a short satirical "movie" titled "Creatures From the Far Right: Supreme Court Under Attack," featuring Bush as "King Wrong" and Republican lawmakers as a multiheaded "Senataur."

"Will pro-choice Americans save the day?" it asks. "It's up to you!"

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