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Jewish World Review
Nov. 6, 2006
/ 15 Mar-Cheshvan, 5767
Hillary's magic number: With a weak opponent and partisan wind at her back, she needs a big victory to boost White House hopes
By
Michael Goodwin
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
In sports, it's called the over-under. Bettors can place a wager on the number of points scored - betting that the total will either be over or under a number set by the oddsmakers. In the Giants-Texans game today, for example, the over-under is 43 points.
Hillary Clinton has a one woman over-under. She is going to win big Tuesday against what's-his-name in her Senate race, but how big is a big question. The percentage of the vote she gets will be an early sign of her strength as a national candidate. A smashing rout will cement her front-runner status for her party's 2008 presidential nomination.
A modest win, on the other hand, would dent her, especially this year. New York is such a deep blue state and the national anti-GOP mood should add points to her certain landslide over her nobody opponent. Indeed, until Controller Alan Hevesi's chauffeur scandal tightened his race, Dems seemed a lock to sweep all four statewide races by huge margins. So Clinton has no excuse not to win big.
How big is big? Consider that in her 2000 race for the Senate against Rep. Rick Lazio, Clinton pulled 55%. That was a very strong number - the benchmark that defines a landslide in some news organizations. Given that she stumbled at the start and had the pardon scandal and Clinton fatigue against her, the margin surpassed most expectations.
For this race, however, 55% becomes the low parameter. She's got to do much better. The top parameter is 71% - that's what her Senate colleague, Chuck Schumer, got in his reelection bid in 2004. It is the modern record in New York state, and I once heard Clinton flatter and needle Schumer about it, calling him "Old Senator 71%." Given her baggage, even getting close to that record would be an enormous win.
So somewhere between 55% and 71% is where Clinton has to end up. Insiders say her campaign has set a goal of getting at least 60%. That's respectable, but too low. It's a passing score for sure, but it would not a great victory be. If the other guy - okay, his name is John Spencer - gets 40% against her and her millions and her political machine this Democratic year, her 2008 party rivals will smell blood. "She only got 60% in New York against that guy" will be their pitch to potential donors and supporters.
Sixty is also too low now because two polls out Friday both had her at 65%. That's a gain and it follows a blizzard of her ads, mailings and robo phone calls using the likes of Tony Bennett and Robert De Niro. And Spencer blew any chance he had of an impressive showing by attacking her looks. Remember, Hillary always does well when she's the victim. She's now actually approaching Eliot Spitzer's standing in his blowout march to be governor; he stood at 69% in both Friday polls against John Faso.
So what's the over-under on Hillary? As the son of a bookie, and therefore genetically wired on this stuff, I say it's 65%. Anything over that and she wins by a whopping 2-to-1 margin. Less than 65 is still strong, as long as it's not much less. If she slides to 60, it's a letdown. Hardly fatal to her presidential campaign, but not a great start, either.
My bet? I'll take the over. She'll top 65 because she's on a roll and the stars are lined up in her favor. She's so strong, in fact, that "Old Senator 71%" might want to watch his back.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in Washington and the media consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
Michael Goodwin is a Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist for the New York Daily News. Comment by clicking here.
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