Contact The Editor
Articles By This Author
JERUSALEM — For six weeks, the hard-won ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas survived fraught hostage exchanges, disputes over alleged deal violations - and the shock of President Donald Trump's unexpected proposal to remove Palestinians from Gaza and take control of the Strip.
And yet, the fragile truce may now be entering an even more precarious juncture.
The first, 42-day phase of the deal, expired Saturday, Israel and Hamas, along with the Trump administration and Arab government mediators, appear far from reaching an agreement to proceed to the second, decisive phase of the ceasefire, which would involve the release of all living Israeli hostages still held by Hamas, Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent end to the war.
Despite the increasing signs of strain, Hamas delivered coffins carrying the bodies of four Israeli hostages to the Red Cross on Wednesday, with Netanyahu's office saying later in the evening that the remains had been returned to Israel, where they would be identified.
Israel, in turn, was slated to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. According to reports in local media, one Red Cross bus filled with prisoners arrived in Ramallah Wednesday, received by a cheering crowd.
At the heart of the deadlock is the question: Could Hamas be persuaded, or pressured, to lay down its arms and leave Gaza, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has demanded as a precondition to ending the war? Or will Netanyahu be willing to compromise - and pay the political price?
Netanyahu and Hamas leaders, analysts say, face conflicting political pressures that make a second-phase agreement far more difficult than the first, and a resumption of war may only be a matter of time.
For Netanyahu, who has long declared his war objective to be "annihilating" Hamas, a decision to end the war before the group agreed to disarm would infuriate his far-right coalition partner, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has vowed to topple Netanyahu's government if the prime minister does not eliminate the group as both a political and military force. In the coming weeks, Netanyahu will need Smotrich on his side more than ever to pass a budget before a March 31 deadline and avoid triggering elections.
For Hamas, giving up its weapons would contradict its stated raison d'être of waging armed struggle against Israel until it withdraws from all occupied Palestinian territories. Hamas officials have recently said they are open to sharing power with other Palestinian factions in Gaza, but they insist on retaining fighting capabilities - a role similar to the one played in Lebanon by the militant group Hezbollah.
After the New York Times published an interview Monday in which senior Hamas leader Mousa Abu Marzouk expressed willingness to discuss the issue of disarmament, several other Hamas leaders swiftly issued statements disavowing his remarks.
"The weapon of resistance is not open to debate or negotiation; it is sacred and cannot be relinquished," Suhail al-Hindi, a member of Hamas's political bureau, told The Washington Post.
Wednesday's prisoner-for-hostage exchange was set to be the final swap under the terms of the first phase of the ceasefire.
Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, has repeatedly stated that the two sides must enter the second phase of the ceasefire. But on Sunday, ahead of a crucial swing through the Middle East, Witkoff said on CNN and CBS that the White House would seek an extension of the first phase. Some analysts say that the talk of extending the current truce, which Hamas and Israeli officials have also expressed willingness to consider, reflects how hopes for a second-phase deal and a swift end to the war may be dimming.
"The question is, how long can the extension go for?" said David Makovsky, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former State Department adviser on Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. "For Netanyahu, it's a blend of strategic conviction and political calculus. I think he truly believes force is the only way to deal with Hamas, and it's reinforced by the political calculus of Finance Minister Smotrich saying he'll bring down the government."
If Netanyahu has to choose between a second phase or more war, Makovsky added, "I think they fight."
For weeks, the leverage wielded by members within Netanyahu's governing coalition has been on open display. Days after the ceasefire agreement passed an Israeli government vote in January, Smotrich, who leads the Religious Zionism party, which views settling the occupied West Bank and Gaza as a religious duty, said on X that he had pressured Netanyahu to add expanded military operations in the West Bank to Israel's current war aims.
The Israeli military on Jan. 21 launched its largest operation in the West Bank in years. The Israel Defense Forces has deployed multiple infantry battalions to combat militants, conducted airstrikes, bulldozed homes and destroyed infrastructure in the densely populated refugee camps near the cities of Jenin, Tulkarm and Tubas. As many as 40,000 Palestinian civilians have been displaced in the process, according to humanitarian groups.
Within the Israeli security establishment, the idea of reentering Gaza has faced resistance from some officials, who have argued that Israel cannot achieve any further military objectives after pounding Gaza for 15 months. Still, the IDF has drawn up plans to renew fighting with greater intensity and with a particular focus on preventing humanitarian aid from being siphoned off by Hamas, according to current and former Israeli officials.
Defense Minister Israel Katz has asked the military to explore plans to potentially control and distribute humanitarian aid flowing into the territory - an idea that was resisted by his predecessor, Yoav Gallant, on operational and legal grounds, these officials said.
At the same time, both Netanyahu and Hamas face pressure to end a war that began when Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people, and which has left more than 48,000 dead in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry, as a result of Israel's counterattack.
As hostages held by Hamas have emerged from Gaza in recent weeks, many Israelis have called on Netanyahu to proceed to the next phase and free all who were taken captive. Seven in 10 Israelis support Israel proceeding to the second stage of the deal, securing all its remaining hostages and wrapping up the war, according to polling conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute between Jan. 28 and Feb 2.
In Gaza, Hamas, too, has confronted rising frustration among Palestinians that the ceasefire has not brought the promised improvement in living conditions or sparked reconstruction. With bulldozers, fuel and tents still in short supply, residents returning to the pummeled northern part of the enclave have struggled to find a place to pitch makeshift tents amid the rubble. Many are still unable to dig out dead relatives from beneath toppled homes. Hamas, already facing public discontent, has accused Israel of violating the ceasefire deal by limiting the inflow of heavy machinery and shelter.
Ibrahim Madhoun, a Gazan analyst who is close to Hamas, said Hamas is loath to resume the war. "The humanitarian situation in Gaza today is extremely dire, with people enduring conditions beyond human tolerance. As a result, every decision is made with extreme caution to preserve what remains of life and dignity," he said. "Ultimately, Hamas's priorities remain focused on protecting the Palestinian people and alleviating their suffering, without compromising core principles or allowing the occupation to exploit the humanitarian crisis for political gain."
Daniel Shapiro, a senior official at the State Department and the Pentagon during the Biden administration and a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, said one positive effect of Trump's stunning call for the United States to take over Gaza - a proposal that Shapiro called "unserious" - was that it prompted an effort by Arab states to devise an alternative proposal for rebuilding the territory and installing new leadership.
But the emerging Arab proposal does not seem to resolve the thorny questions of whether Hamas will disarm or what will be the extent of its political influence in Gaza.
"I don't think Hamas yet feels like they have to give up the weapons and tunnels, which of course they will have to do," Shapiro said. "So far, it doesn't sound like the Arab proposal goes deep on demilitarization or on ensuring Palestinian technocratic governance that would deliver for the Israeli side by preventing Hamas from being the power behind the scenes, like Hezbollah was for many years in Lebanon, and still posing a threat to Israel."