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Jewish World Review
Oct. 4, 2013
/ 30 Tishrei, 5774
The GOP should speed Obamacare's demise. Right now, it's not
By
Michael Gerson
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
After much struggle and internal strife, Republicans seeking to block Obamacare have arrived at this achievement: Much of the government is closed — except for Obamacare. The national parks are deserted but the health exchanges sputter and wheeze to life.
For the most vigorous critics of President Obama’s health reform, this failure is a point of ideological no return. “The administration’s plan,” said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), “is to get as many Americans as possible addicted to the sugar, addicted to the subsidies. And in modern history, there has never been a major entitlement that has been implemented that has ever been unwound. . . . If we don’t defund it now, how do we ever successfully get rid of this train wreck of a law?” Cruz went on to argue that the administration’s decision to delay the employer mandate is instructive. “If Obamacare were going well, if it were working, he would want it to kick in before the election. The fact that he and Democrats are very, very concerned about being held accountable at the polls for the train wreck that is Obamacare is very revealing.” There are two very different arguments being made here, leading to a clash of metaphors. Americans, apparently, are on the verge of being addicted to a train wreck. Voters are about to become hooked on a political disaster that Democrats wish to delay. Tea party conservatives have not only embarked on a legislative confrontation without an endgame, they have also made a hash of their Obamacare critique. Both their apocalyptic urgency before implementation and their fatalism after it are rooted in a misunderstanding of the law itself. Obamacare is not primarily an entitlement program. The entitlement component — the exchange subsidies — will involve about 2 percent of Americans during the first year. (Others will be added to Medicaid, which has been around since 1965.) About 20 million Americans will eventually get subsidized insurance — a check that goes not to the individual but to insurance companies. The remaining 170 million Americans will not experience Obamacare as a sugary treat but as a series of complex regulatory changes that may make their existing insurance more costly, less generous and less secure.
The main problem with Obamacare is not its addictive generosity; it is its poor, unsustainable design. Its finances depend on forcing large numbers of young and healthy people to buy insurance — yet it makes their insurance more costly and securing coverage less urgent. (Because you can get coverage during each year’s enrollment period at the same price whether you’re healthy or sick, the incentive to buy coverage when healthy is much diminished.) Heavy insurance regulations will lead some employers to restructure their plans, dump employees into the public exchanges or make greater use of part-time workers. In order to meet a few worthy goals — helping the poor buy insurance and covering preexisting conditions — Obamacare seems destined to destabilize much of our current health system. As a political matter, Obamacare will not keep many of its initial promises. It promised universal coverage — but the Congressional Budget Office estimated it will cover only about 40 percent of the uninsured. It promised lower premiums for families — but premium costs for families look likely to broadly increase. It promised lower health costs for government — but those costs are not coming down. The Health and Human Services actuaries expect health inflation to return strongly in 2014, largely because of Obamacare. “By going about this large change themselves,” said Yuval Levin of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, “the Democrats are taking ownership of the health care system, and that is a system that most people don’t much like and will probably like less in the next few years. . . . So I’m not inclined to think that the public will take this as an addictive drug.” This presents Republicans with a political opening. But it is equally true that politics — the securing of a Senate majority and the presidency — is their only option to repeal and replace Obamacare. There are no shortcuts. The task will require a substantive critique, effective political strategy, democratic patience and market-oriented policy alternatives that deal with preexisting conditions and cover more of the uninsured. The task will not be accomplished by hyperbole, shallow analysis, political breath-holding and extravagant, immediately disappointed pledges of repeal. And oh, by the way, it also doesn’t help to dismiss millions of your fellow citizens — some in genuine need — as welfare-state junkies. <
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Previously:
10/04/13 The tea party's revolt
09/30/13 The end of compromise?
09/17/13 A state of paralysis: Congress, Obama need to act
09/12/13 In full retreat on Syria
09/10/13 Obama misunderstands wartime leadership
09/09/13 Rallying around a gesture
08/30/13 The preacher and the politician
08/27/13 Is Obama's oft-cited best-case scenario in Syria still even possible?
08/23/13 Jordan's wary welcome
08/20/13 The hardest goodbye: A parent letting go
08/16/13 For GOP, opposition shouldn't only mean obstruction
08/13/13 Crazy, humane determination creates breakthrough for millions
08/09/13 America's bubble of complacency
07/01/11 The GOP's ideal America
03/04/11 The last doughboy and the emergence of a great nation
03/01/11 Conservatives shouldn't be so surprised by freedom
02/22/11 The progression of pain
02/18/11 The seriousness primary
02/11/11 Do Egypt's protests mean American decline?
01/27/11 No-bend Obama
01/21/11 Two good arguments for civility -- and passion -- in politics
01/11/11 Obama's staff changes give him a second chance
01/11/11 Is Arizona shooting an empty search for meaning?
01/07/11 WikiLeaks gives dangerous ammunition to a tyrant
01/04/11 Michael Vick: Symbol of the second chance
12/28/10 Social Security reform is the answer to Obama's problems --- and the nation's
12/21/10 When foreign policy realism isn't realistic
12/17/10 When it comes to politics, Obama's ego keeps getting in the way
11/26/10 Libs resort to conspiracy theories to explain Obama's problems
11/19/10 With Holder at the helm, detainee policy is a disaster
11/12/10 Blue-state budget crises spell even more trouble for Dems
10/19/10 Obama the snob
10/12/10 Seeds of victory in Afghanistan
10/05/10 Believers' remorse
10/04/10 Pound-foolish on national security
09/28/10 Babylon on the Potomac
09/27/10 Our reluctant commander in chief
09/21/10 Blue strongholds are becoming Democratic graveyards
09/17/10 For the GOP, a bittersweet brew from the Tea Party
09/15/10: Insanity's great enablers
09/13/10: The lost communicator
09/08/10: Will 2010 midterms be 1994 all over again?
09/01/10: Obama's economic wandering
08/27/10: Miracles from abroad
08/25/10: Address these issues in order to strengthen the Tea Party
08/20/10: The lost promise of Barack Obama
07/23/10: Obama's greatest nightmare
02/04/09: The Reality of Innocence
01/07/09: The Risks in Obama's Ambitions
12/31/08: Support Obama Will Need
06/13/08: Prince Charles, Organic Conservatism Icon
06/11/08: No longer a bankrupt political joke but still overshadowed
04/23/08: McCain's anger management
04/10/08: A Country for Old Men
03/06/08: Does the America Need a Hug?
03/06/08: Obama's First 100 Days
02/29/08: Words Aren't Cheap
02/22/08: He Said, They Said
02/20/08: Dying silently in Zimbabwe
02/15/08: Hillary's Unappealing Path
02/13/08: NATO's Afghan Stumbles
02/08/08: Why McCain Endures
02/06/08: One surge that led to another
02/01/08: In North Korea, Process Over Progress
01/30/08: Compassionate to the end
© 2008, WPWG
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