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Jewish World Review Feb. 11, 2011 / 7 Adar I, 5771 Do Egypt's protests mean American decline? By Michael Gerson http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | For those who are prone to be prone to such things, recent events in Egypt are further evidence of declining American global influence. President Hosni Mubarak, having taken a lot of American aid, now seems immune to both American advice and pressure. The protesters, one article complained, didn't even bother to burn our flag. We are seeing, according to some observers, a "post-American Middle East." Never mind that the protesters are using Western technology to demand individual rights. Or that many of the young, secular bloggers who laid the groundwork for the revolution alternate between Arabic and English and have visited or studied in America. Lay aside the fact that Egyptians in the streets have focused their demands on only two actors, the Egyptian regime and the American government - not the United Nations or the Arab League or China. In fact, China's response was to remove the word "Egypt" from its Internet search engines and lie low, hoping the storm passes. Such considerations should not be allowed to detract from our sense of impotence - a paradoxical tribute to our ambitions. People in Holland or Costa Rica do not celebrate or decry their lack of sway in Egyptian politics. Only Americans feel vindication or guilt at the limits of their power. Those limits are obvious along the Nile. The outcome of this confused struggle matters greatly to American interests. The emergence of a Sunni version of Iran in Egypt would be a major blow. A democratic transition, even a messy and partial one, might eventually isolate or domesticate the extremists and defuse hatred for America. But the course of events in Egypt is determined by an internal contest of fear and hope that intensifies daily and that America can influence only on the margins. And the limits of a certain American policy approach in the Middle East have never been more obvious. Decades of aiding a military dictator who presides over a corrupt, unresponsive government, who has managed his economy into stagnation and scarcity, and who has driven most legitimate opposition toward the radical mosque have not produced stability. There's a reason shahs are sometimes followed by mullahs - because religious extremism is the opiate of a humiliated people. Who can seriously argue that the denouement in Egypt will be better because Mubarak cannot seem to take a hint and board a plane? FREE SUBSCRIPTION TO INFLUENTIAL NEWSLETTER Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". HUNDREDS of columnists and cartoonists regularly appear. Sign up for the daily update. It's free. Just click here. But it is a tricky thing to extrapolate these limits into a theory of American decline. Decline compared to what? Compared to the heady, unipolar moment immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union? Or compared to the coldest days of the Cold War, when the Soviet Union sent military aid and advisers to Syria, Egypt, Libya and Iraq, attempting to block American actions at every turn? The scholar Joseph Nye describes a layer cake of American influence. On the first level, military power, America remains unchallenged. On the second, economic influence, the world has been multipolar for a while now. On a third level - a transnational realm of bankers and terrorists, Facebook and hackers - power is diffused to a wide range of actors, both good and bad, who now have the ability to sponsor Sept. 11, 2001, or Jan. 25, 2011. In the complex determination of national influence, those with the best story, the most compelling narrative, have an advantage. In the Middle East, does the old dictator speaking of past glories on Egyptian state television really seem like the wave of the future? Does Iranian theocracy, which in reaction to democratic protests has collapsed into military control, seem worthy of emulation? These systems may be imposed at the barrel of a gun. But on the streets of Cairo, self-government is the hope. It seems the system most likely to result in progress, social vitality and national achievement. And it seems that way because it is. At least since Franklin Roosevelt, American leaders have viewed the appeal of democratic ideals as a source of national power. America now has less direct control, say, in Germany and Japan than it did in the 1950s. But both countries are monuments to American influence. Democracies do not always do our bidding, but in the long run they are more stable and peaceful than countries ruled by the whims of a single man. Democratic transitions are difficult and uncertain, especially in places with shallow democratic roots. But it is strangely disconnected from American history and ideals to regard a popular revolt against an oppressive ruler as a sign of American decline. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. Comment on Michael Gerson's column by clicking here. Previously: 01/27/11 No-bend Obama 01/21/11 Two good arguments for civility -- and passion -- in politics 01/11/11 Obama's staff changes give him a second chance 01/11/11 Is Arizona shooting an empty search for meaning? 01/07/11 WikiLeaks gives dangerous ammunition to a tyrant 01/04/11 Michael Vick: Symbol of the second chance 12/28/10 Social Security reform is the answer to Obama's problems --- and the nation's 12/21/10 When foreign policy realism isn't realistic 12/17/10 When it comes to politics, Obama's ego keeps getting in the way 11/26/10 Libs resort to conspiracy theories to explain Obama's problems 11/19/10 With Holder at the helm, detainee policy is a disaster 11/12/10 Blue-state budget crises spell even more trouble for Dems 10/19/10 Obama the snob 10/12/10 Seeds of victory in Afghanistan 10/05/10 Believers' remorse 10/04/10 Pound-foolish on national security 09/28/10 Babylon on the Potomac 09/27/10 Our reluctant commander in chief 09/21/10 Blue strongholds are becoming Democratic graveyards 09/17/10 For the GOP, a bittersweet brew from the Tea Party 09/15/10: Insanity's great enablers 09/13/10: The lost communicator 09/08/10: Will 2010 midterms be 1994 all over again? 09/01/10: Obama's economic wandering 08/27/10: Miracles from abroad 08/25/10: Address these issues in order to strengthen the Tea Party 08/20/10: The lost promise of Barack Obama 07/23/10: Obama's greatest nightmare 02/04/09: The Reality of Innocence 01/07/09: The Risks in Obama's Ambitions 12/31/08: Support Obama Will Need 06/13/08: Prince Charles, Organic Conservatism Icon 06/11/08: No longer a bankrupt political joke but still overshadowed 04/23/08: McCain's anger management 04/10/08: A Country for Old Men 03/06/08: Does the America Need a Hug? 03/06/08: Obama's First 100 Days 02/29/08: Words Aren't Cheap 02/22/08: He Said, They Said 02/20/08: Dying silently in Zimbabwe 02/15/08: Hillary's Unappealing Path 02/13/08: NATO's Afghan Stumbles 02/08/08: Why McCain Endures 02/06/08: One surge that led to another 02/01/08: In North Korea, Process Over Progress 01/30/08: Compassionate to the end © 2008, WPWG

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