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December 2, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Defending the Right to a Jewish State

Heather Hale: Compliment your kids without giving them big heads

Megan Shauri: 10 ways you are ruining your own happiness

Carolyn Bigda: 8 Best Dividend Stocks for 2015

Kiplinger's Personal Finance editors: 7 Things You Didn't Know About Paying Off Student Loans

Samantha Olson: The Crucial Mistake 55% Of Parents Are Making At Their Baby's Bedtime

Densie Well, Ph.D., R.D. Open your eyes to yellow vegetables

The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon With its colorful cache of purples and oranges and reds, COLLARD GREEN SLAW is a marvelous mood booster --- not to mention just downright delish
April 18, 2014

Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology

Caroline B. Glick: The disappearance of US will

Megan Wallgren: 10 things I've learned from my teenagers

Lizette Borreli: Green Tea Boosts Brain Power, May Help Treat Dementia

John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain

The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious

April 14, 2014

Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time

Greg Crosby: Passing Over Religion

Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic

Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships

Cameron Huddleston: Freebies for Your Lawn and Garden

Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin

Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate

Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure

The Kosher Gourmet by Joshua E. London and Lou Marmon Don't dare pass over these Pesach picks for Manischewitz!

April 11, 2014

Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden

Caroline B. Glick: Forgetting freedom at Passover

Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Financial Tasks You Should Tackle Right Now

Sandra Block and Lisa Gerstner: How to Profit From Your Passion

Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer

Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You

The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington Whitefish Terrine: A French take on gefilte fish

April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review Nov. 9, 2007 / 28 Mar-Cheshvan

Clinton, Giuliani, and the Polls

By Michael Barone


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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | John Harwood's story in the Wall Street Journal is headlined "Poll Suggests Clinton Is Vulnerable." The key finding is that although adults want a Democratic president rather than a Republican president by a margin of 50 to 35 percent, they favor Hillary Clinton over Rudy Giuliani by a statistically insignificant 46 to 45 percent. Clinton's lead over Giuliani is down from her previous leads in NBC/Wall Street Journal polls of 49 to 42 percent in September, 47 to 41 percent in July, and 48 to 43 percent in June.


This improvement in Giuliani's standing versus Clinton's is reflected by a similar improvement in some, but not all, other polls recently: Rasmussen, ABC/Washington Post, Fox News. Why does Clinton run so far behind the Democratic vote?


While a 51 percent majority gives her high marks for being "knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency," pluralities rate her negatively on honesty, likability, and sharing their positions on the issues.


On honesty, only 34 percent rate her positively, and 43 percent rate her negatively.


Other Democrats, it appears, have different problems as general election candidates. Harwood does not disclose the numbers but reports:


John Edwards and Barack Obama both run even against Giuliani, too, matching Clinton's standing even though they aren't as well known as she is. But Obama would enter a general election with serious vulnerabilities of his own, since just 30 percent of Americans rate him positively on having enough experience for the presidency, and just 29 percent rate him positively on "being a good commander in chief."


The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has Clinton doing well nationally in the Democratic primary race. She leads Obama 47 to 25 percent, with 11 percent for Edwards (his worst showing in this poll this cycle). Similarly, pollster Scott Rasmussen shows no change in the national numbers for the Democratic candidates since the October 30 debate in which Clinton wobbled on driver's licenses for illegal immigrants. A Marist national poll taken both before and after the October 30 debate found that Clinton's support was 52 percent before the debate and 43 percent after the debate, but the sample size of each group was small, and there may be no statistically significant difference between the groups.


However, Rasmussen's post-debate poll of New Hampshire Democrats shows Clinton leading Obama in New Hampshire by only 34 to 24 percent, with 15 percent for John Edwards. Clinton led Obama 38 to 22 percent in late October before the debate, with 14 percent for Edwards, and in late September she led Obama 40 to 17 percent, with 14 percent for Edwards. Rasmussen also found that only 19 percent of New Hampshire Democrats favor driver's licenses for illegal immigrants-the position taken ultimately by Clinton and by Obama and Edwards as well-while 66 percent are opposed.


This fortifies my conclusion in my recent column that this issue could hurt Clinton, or another Democrat, in the general election. More evidence comes from the Quinnipiac polls of Pennsylvania and Connecticut released today. In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads Giuliani 45 to 43 percent, down from 48 to 42 percent in an October 10 poll. In addition, Quinnipiac found that 81 percent of respondents oppose driver's licenses for illegal immigrants and that-by a margin of 54 percent to 3 percent- voters would be less inclined, rather than more inclined, to vote for a candidate who favored them. In Connecticut, Quinnipiac has Clinton leading Giuliani by just 45 to 44 percent. John Kerry carried Pennsylvania by 51 to 48 percent and Connecticut by 54 to 44 percent in 2004; Giuliani against Clinton seems to be running at the Bush 2004 level in Pennsylvania and significantly ahead of it in Connecticut.


All of which leads me to think that Scenario A for the Democratic race is somewhat less likely and Scenario B is somewhat more likely. Scenario A is that Clinton wins a narrow victory in Iowa on January 3, as suggested by recent polls there, and then wins a stomping big victory in New Hampshire on (presumably) January 8 and is effectively the Democratic nominee on the morning of January 9.


But Iowa polls are particularly dicey, since it's hard to get a sample that represents the relatively small percentage of the electorate that will turn out for the precinct caucuses. And much of Clinton's appeal to Democrats is based on the notion that she is a strong general election candidate, the notion challenged by John Harwood's story. In Scenario B, Obama, who has more organizers on the ground in Iowa now than Clinton does, wins in Iowa and gets a bounce and wins in New Hampshire. The drop in Clinton's current margin in New Hampshire suggests her support is not rock-solid there. Scenario B gives us a two-candidate, Clinton-Obama race, continuing at least through the February 5 primaries, by which time half the nation will have had a chance to vote, with the winner, in my view, by no means clear. As the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll suggests, both have weaknesses as general election candidates, weaknesses that may trouble Democratic voters who are eager to win in November.


Last June, I wrote that the Republican primary electorate is fluid and the Democratic primary electorate is viscous. This week's poll numbers have made me think that the Democratic primary electorate may be more fluid than I thought.

Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.

BARONE'S LATEST
The New Americans  

Now, more than ever, the melting pot must be used to keep America great. Barone attacks multiculturalism and anti-American apologists--but he also rejects proposals for building a wall to keep immigrants out, or rounding up millions of illegals to send back home. Rather, the melting pot must be allowed to work (as it has for centuries) to teach new Americans the values, history, and unique spirit of America so they, too, can enjoy the American dream.. Sales help fund JWR.

JWR contributor Michael Barone is a columnist at U.S. News & World Report. Comment by clicking here.




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