In this issue

Jonathan Tobin: Defending the Right to a Jewish State

Heather Hale: Compliment your kids without giving them big heads

Megan Shauri: 10 ways you are ruining your own happiness

Carolyn Bigda: 8 Best Dividend Stocks for 2015

Kiplinger's Personal Finance editors: 7 Things You Didn't Know About Paying Off Student Loans

Samantha Olson: The Crucial Mistake 55% Of Parents Are Making At Their Baby's Bedtime

Densie Well, Ph.D., R.D. Open your eyes to yellow vegetables

The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon With its colorful cache of purples and oranges and reds, COLLARD GREEN SLAW is a marvelous mood booster --- not to mention just downright delish
April 18, 2014

Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology

Caroline B. Glick: The disappearance of US will

Megan Wallgren: 10 things I've learned from my teenagers

Lizette Borreli: Green Tea Boosts Brain Power, May Help Treat Dementia

John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain

The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious

April 14, 2014

Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time

Greg Crosby: Passing Over Religion

Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic

Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships

Cameron Huddleston: Freebies for Your Lawn and Garden

Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin

Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate

Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure

The Kosher Gourmet by Joshua E. London and Lou Marmon Don't dare pass over these Pesach picks for Manischewitz!

April 11, 2014

Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden

Caroline B. Glick: Forgetting freedom at Passover

Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Financial Tasks You Should Tackle Right Now

Sandra Block and Lisa Gerstner: How to Profit From Your Passion

Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer

Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You

The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington Whitefish Terrine: A French take on gefilte fish

April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review Oct. 31, 2008 / 2 Mar-Cheshvan 5769

Election Prediction: Democrats Won't Get a Filibuster-Proof Senate

By Michael Barone

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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | If, as seems likely but not quite certain, Barack Obama is elected next Tuesday, a key question for public policymaking will be how many Democrats are elected to the Senate. Currently, there are 51 Democrats there, including Joe Lieberman, but Democrats are seriously contesting 11 Republican-held seats, and there is a by-no-means-trivial chance that they could win each one. Meanwhile, Republicans are seriously contesting either zero Democratic-held seats, or only one, that of Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. The only public polls there since July are from Rasmussen, and the latest shows Landrieu ahead of Democrat-turned-Republican John Kennedy by 53 percent to 43 percent. So, Landrieu, a narrow winner in 1996 and 2002, seems headed to a third term.

Two and probably three Republican seats seem certain to be gained by Democrats: Virginia, where Mark Warner is way ahead of his predecessor as governor, Jim Gilmore; New Mexico, where Tom Udall, a reluctant candidate at first, is way ahead of his House colleague Steve Pearce; and Colorado, where Bob Schaffer has not been able to overcome the lead of Mark Udall. I have a lot of respect for Schaffer's campaign manager (and state Republican chairman) Dick Wadhams, but I don't see how he pulls this one off. Four-dollar-a-gallon gasoline gave Schaffer a good issue over the summer, but it has clearly waned in importance. And Colorado, like New Mexico and Virginia, is a Bush '04 state where Barack Obama has had consistent and often statistical leads in the polls since the financial crisis hit on September 15.

A fourth seat most observers expect Republicans to lose is New Hampshire, where Sen. John Sununu has been trailing the Democrat he beat, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, back in 2002. Sununu did not lead, or lead by much, in polls six years ago; he is behind in public polls this year, with the most recent RealClearPolitics.com average at 49 percent to 42 percent. Sununu has always said he would save up his campaign treasury until the end and close strong, and I suppose that's still possible. But the overall environment is very different from 2002. John McCain, winner of New Hampshire presidential primaries in 2000 and 2008, trails Barack Obama in the state by 53 percent to 40 percent in the latest RealClearPolitics.com average.

Then, there's Alaska, a state the McCain-Palin ticket will carry. The polls don't close there until 1 a.m. Eastern time, so it's the last state to report on election night. But Sen. Ted Stevens's conviction this week on seven counts of failing to report gifts looks like it will be fatal to his campaign. The only postconviction poll, from Rasmussen, shows Democrat Mark Begich leading, 52 percent to 44 percent. I think Stevens could save the seat for his party by promising he would resign if his conviction is upheld on appeal to allow a new senator to be chosen in a special election. (Alaska law is not clear on whether the governor can appoint a successor to a vacancy.) But I doubt that will happen.

If Democrats win all these five seats, they'll be up to 56. There are five more races in which no candidate leads by as much as 4 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics.com averages. Democrats have to win all but one of them to get to 60 and, in Mississippi, Roger Wicker, who was appointed to succeed Trent Lott, has run up double-digit leads in the last two polls and seems highly likely to beat former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove.

In Oregon, Gordon Smith has trailed Democrat Jeff Merkley in every poll taken since the collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 15, except for one Rasmussen poll that showed the race tied. Before September 15, almost every poll showed Smith ahead. It looks like he could be carried down by the undertow of the financial crisis.

In North Carolina, Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan, 46 percent to 44 percent. Hagan made much of the fact that Dole did not spend much time in the state in 2005 and 2006, when she chaired the Senate Republicans' campaign committee, and Dole has not led in any poll since early October. But neither candidate has been ahead by 7 points in any poll since July. This looks like a real nail-biter.

In Georgia, incumbent Saxby Chambliss, who seemed utterly safe at the beginning of the cycle, is currently averaging a 46 percent to 43 percent lead against Democrat Jim Martin. There has been heavy black turnout in early voting — not a good sign for Chambliss. However, Martin has not been ahead in any public poll.

In Minnesota, DFLer Al Franken has led incumbent Norm Coleman in most October polls after some fuss over who paid for Coleman's clothes at Neiman Marcus surfaced. Independent Dean Barkley, appointed for a brief time in the Senate by then Gov. Jesse Ventura after the death of Paul Wellstone, has been getting double digits in the polls. The latest Rasmussen poll has Coleman ahead, 43 percent to 39 percent to 14 percent, a turnaround from the week before when Rasmussen had Franken ahead, 41 percent to 37 percent to 17 percent. Coleman reportedly scored well in debate this week, as he did six years ago against Walter Mondale after Wellstone's death.

In Kentucky, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell faces a tough challenge from self-financer Bruce Lunsford. Recent polling shows McConnell leading, 48 percent to 45 percent, and Republicans say their internal polling has him doing better in a state that John McCain seems sure to carry by a comfortable margin.

What's my bottom line? If I had to bet $1,000 on each of these races, I would bet on Smith and Dole to lose, and Coleman, Chambliss, and McConnell to win. That, assuming Sununu doesn't somehow pull it out, would leave the Democrats with 58 seats. (But I could easily be wrong on any or all of these races, and I reserve the right to change my prediction before Tuesday.) Fifty-eight Democrats would be enough to stop filibusters if they can get a couple of Republicans (and not drop any Democrats) on an issue, but not enough to run the table.

It's a little scary to think that major differences in public policy can be settled by the outcomes in just a few close Senate races. But then, major differences in public policy were settled by George W. Bush's paper-thin victory in 2000. Our representative democracy gives both parties huge incentives to squeeze just a few more votes out, because they can make a huge difference in the long run.

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The New Americans  

Now, more than ever, the melting pot must be used to keep America great. Barone attacks multiculturalism and anti-American apologists--but he also rejects proposals for building a wall to keep immigrants out, or rounding up millions of illegals to send back home. Rather, the melting pot must be allowed to work (as it has for centuries) to teach new Americans the values, history, and unique spirit of America so they, too, can enjoy the American dream.. Sales help fund JWR.

JWR contributor Michael Barone is a columnist at U.S. News & World Report. Comment by clicking here.

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