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April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review July 17, 2008 / 14 Tamuz 5768

Latest Presidential Polls Show a New List of Target States for Obama and McCain

By Michael Barone


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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | The presidential race seems to be tightening, at least according to the two tracking polls. The Rasmussen tracking poll showed Barack Obama in a statistical tie with John McCain last weekend; the latest numbers show Obama ahead 47 percent to 44 percent. Here is Scott Rasmussen's nut paragraph:


A review of Rasmussen Reports full week tracking confirms the slight tightening of the race. Seven-day tracking shows less volatility than three-day tracking and is based upon interviews with 7,000 Likely Voters each week. For the first five weeks after clinching the Democratic nomination, Obama led McCain 49 percent to 44 percent in every week but one. The sole exception found Obama ahead 49 percent to 43 percent. However, for the seven days ending July 13, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 45 percent.


The Gallup tracking poll has Obama up 46 percent to 43 percent — almost precisely the same numbers as Rasmussen. The most recent week shows Obama up 46 percent to 43 percent; the week before, Obama was up 47 percent to 43 percent.


It is conventional wisdom that candidates improve their standing by moving to the center, as Obama has done on myriad issues in the past two weeks (for a pungent summary, see Charles Krauthammer's July 4 column). But Obama's movement undermines one of the central premises of his candidacy, that he is not a Washington-style politician, just as his 20-year embrace of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright undermined another central premise, that he is one who seeks to transcend racial barriers. In any case, Obama may have slipped a bit and does not seem to be making significant gains by "refining" his positions.


How could that affect the standings in the 50 states? I took a look at all June and July polls (except for the Zogby Interactive polls, which I'm dubious about) as compiled in www.pollster.com (there were no polls in Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Idaho, Maryland, Vermont, and Wyoming, and I couldn't access the polls for Mississippi, but we don't have any doubts where those 36 electoral votes are going). Those polls (and my inclusion of Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Maryland, and Vermont) show Obama leading n 26 states and D.C. with 320 electoral votes, and McCain leading (or, in the case of North Dakota, tied) in 24 states with 218 electoral votes.


Some of the results are very much out of line with the results in 2000 and 2004. Obama is carrying New York and New England by double digits, and he has a 20-point lead in California, as well as double-digit leads in Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, and Wisconsin. He has much narrower leads in the three polls conducted in Colorado, the one conducted in Indiana, the one conducted in Montana, and the three conducted in Virginia, all of which were carried by George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.


McCain is ahead by double digits in Utah (and probably would be in Idaho and Wyoming, if there were any polls there), Nebraska, and several southern states — Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.


Most of these polls were conducted in June, when Obama was faring marginally better than he is at present in the two tracking polls. If one assumes McCain is running a little stronger now, in which states would he be overtaking Obama, assuming a uniform rise across the country? In the South, Virginia (13 electoral votes). In the West, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, and Oregon (24 electoral votes). In the Midwest, Indiana and Ohio (31 electoral votes). In the East, probably nowhere: He trails in June-July polls by 8 percent in Pennsylvania and 9 percent in New Jersey (36 electoral votes). Leaving aside the East, these 68 electoral votes added to his current 218 would give him 286 electoral votes, the number George W. Bush won in 2004.


Conclusion: This has the potential to be a furiously contested race. And on unfamiliar turf. The only 2000 and 2004 target states in the list above were New Mexico and Ohio. The others — Virginia, Colorado, Montana, Oregon, and Indiana — either were not on anybody's target list in 2004 or dropped off one candidate's target list pretty early in the season.

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JWR contributor Michael Barone is a columnist at U.S. News & World Report. Comment by clicking here.




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