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April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review April 2, 2007 / 14 Nissan, 5767

Three Scenarios for '08

By Michael Barone


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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | A recent Pew poll showed a sharp change in Americans' political party identification: Democrats now outnumber Republicans 50 to 35 percent, as opposed to 2002, when both had 43 percent. These numbers may overstate the Democratic advantage: They measure all adults rather than just voters, and Pew's numbers in 2004 and 2006 were more Democratic than the exit polls. Still, the trend is clear. What does it mean for 2008? Let me offer three scenarios-and reasons why each may not happen.


The Blair scenario. In the early 1990s Britain's Conservatives were regarded as nasty but competent. Then Britain was forced to devalue its currency; mortgage payments shot up, and the Conservatives' reputation for competence vanished. The result: Tony Blair's Labor Party won huge victories in 1997, 2001, and 2005. The scenario here would be for Democrats to enlarge their congressional majorities and sweep to a 40-state presidential victory in 2008. The Republicans' reputation for competence was damaged by Iraq and Katrina. Under the Blair scenario, they would go further downhill, especially if Iraq is still seen as a losing cause.


Objections: Labor won only after Tony Blair rebranded the party as New Labor, with moderate policies. If the Old Labor party leader John Smith had not died suddenly in 1994, to be replaced by the 41-year-old Blair, Labor might have lost or won only narrowly-or so the British political experts I trust believe. Here, Democrats don't seem to be rebranding themselves as "new Democrats," as Bill Clinton did successfully in 1992. As for competence, Republicans will have a new leader in 2008, and the candidates now leading-Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney-can plausibly claim that quality.


The Ike scenario. In 1952 the United States was mired in a deadly conflict-10 times as bloody as Iraq-that the incumbent president could not end. Then there emerged a candidate with a record of making life-and-death decisions in war: Dwight Eisenhower. Ike captured the Republican nomination from "Mr. Republican," Robert Taft, and then beat a refreshing new face from Illinois, Adlai Stevenson, who had little military experience. The victory came despite the Democrats' big edge in party identification.


None of the Republican candidates can claim experience just like Ike's. But Rudy Giuliani did command a uniformed force of 40,000 that reduced crime in New York City by 64 percent in eight years. John McCain served in combat and has had a record of close attention to military affairs ever since. None of the leading Democrats have anything comparable. Hillary Rodham Clinton has been a conscientious member of the Senate Armed Services Committee for five years. Barack Obama is, like Stevenson, a fresh face from Illinois. John Edwards was a senator for six years and has been running for president for five. Polls show these three candidates trailing Giuliani and, sometimes, McCain. Scenario: Giuliani or McCain could win even as voters choose a Democratic or (as in 1952) a very narrowly Republican Congress.


Objections: Giuliani and McCain are not Eisenhower. And they will be identified with George W. Bush's war policy, whereas Ike was not tied to Harry Truman's.


The Perot scenario. In February 1992 a short billionaire from Texas told CNN's Larry King that he might run for president. Ross Perot was able to partly self-finance a campaign, and his calls for reform stirred voters who were tired of stale, bitter partisan division. The short billionaire in a position to do something similar in 2008 is New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He has high job ratings and stands above partisan politics. With an income said to be $500 million a year, he can completely self-finance a campaign. He is also said to be interested in running. In 1992 many voters were unmoored from old partisan allegiances; many seem to be today.


Objections: A Bloomberg candidacy will probably be viable only if the major parties nominate candidates who reflect their narrow party bases, and they may not. Bloomberg also doesn't have the military experience that made Perot a plausible commander in chief.


Which of these scenarios will happen? I have no idea. All could, and so could others in between. I think we're in a period of open-field politics, like that of 1990-96, which gave us the Blair and Perot scenarios and could have given us the Ike scenario if Colin Powell had run in 1996.

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JWR contributor Michael Barone is a columnist at U.S. News & World Report. Comment by clicking here.




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