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December 2, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Defending the Right to a Jewish State

Heather Hale: Compliment your kids without giving them big heads

Megan Shauri: 10 ways you are ruining your own happiness

Carolyn Bigda: 8 Best Dividend Stocks for 2015

Kiplinger's Personal Finance editors: 7 Things You Didn't Know About Paying Off Student Loans

Samantha Olson: The Crucial Mistake 55% Of Parents Are Making At Their Baby's Bedtime

Densie Well, Ph.D., R.D. Open your eyes to yellow vegetables

The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon With its colorful cache of purples and oranges and reds, COLLARD GREEN SLAW is a marvelous mood booster --- not to mention just downright delish
April 18, 2014

Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology

Caroline B. Glick: The disappearance of US will

Megan Wallgren: 10 things I've learned from my teenagers

Lizette Borreli: Green Tea Boosts Brain Power, May Help Treat Dementia

John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain

The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious

April 14, 2014

Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time

Greg Crosby: Passing Over Religion

Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic

Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships

Cameron Huddleston: Freebies for Your Lawn and Garden

Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin

Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate

Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure

The Kosher Gourmet by Joshua E. London and Lou Marmon Don't dare pass over these Pesach picks for Manischewitz!

April 11, 2014

Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden

Caroline B. Glick: Forgetting freedom at Passover

Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Financial Tasks You Should Tackle Right Now

Sandra Block and Lisa Gerstner: How to Profit From Your Passion

Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer

Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You

The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington Whitefish Terrine: A French take on gefilte fish

April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review March 21, 2008 / 14 Adar II 5768

State by State, Obama and Clinton Stack Up Differently Against McCain

By Michael Barone


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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | If you look at national polls for the general election, the pairings between John McCain and Barack Obama and between McCain and Hillary Clinton look just about the same. In today's Real Clear Politics roundup of the latest polls, McCain leads Obama 46 to 45 percent and leads Hillary Clinton 47 to 46. The Clinton campaign is making much of how Obama is no longer running more strongly against McCain than its candidate is, as has been the case for most of the year. That may be the result of the airing of the ranting and bigoted remarks of Obama's longtime pastor and spiritual mentor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright; no one knows how lasting an effect they will have.

But in any case, the numbers weaken the Obama campaign's argument to superdelegates that he would be a stronger general election candidate. He still has more upside potential than Clinton, who has long polarized the electorate. But the Wright tapes also show that he has more downside potential. Today's polls are not necessarily an indicator of who will be the stronger general election candidate. That requires a judgment about whether Obama will achieve his upside potential or suffer his downside potential, a judgment on which reasonable people can and do differ. It's a question the answer to which is unknowable, until and unless Obama is nominated.

But recent polls do shed light on another question: Which candidate would be stronger in which states? For while the two Democrats do run an identical and statistically insignificant 1 percentage point behind McCain, they run very differently in different states. The strongest evidence for this comes from SurveyUSA's polls, released March 6, of Obama and Clinton against McCain in all 50 states (they didn't bother with the District of Columbia) and from polls of the two Democrats against McCain conducted by Scott Rasmussen in 20 states, most of which were seriously contested in 2000 and 2004.

SurveyUSA shows the electoral votes of 15 states being cast for different parties in the 50 states; these include two electoral votes in Nebraska (the result was close enough there that SUSA estimates that Obama carried two congressional districts while losing the state). By way of comparison, only three states switched parties between the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections (Iowa and New Mexico switched to Bush, New Hampshire away from him). I'm listing below, by region, the states with their number of electoral votes in which either Clinton's margin was 5 percentage points or more above Obama's and the same for those states in which Obama's margin was 4 percentage points or more above Clinton's.


Altogether, we're talking about 156 electoral votes. Some of these states—Oklahoma, Kentucky, Georgia—look to be well beyond Clinton's reach. But in some cases—Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Florida—she has apparently sewed up states that would seem to be problematical for Obama. (About Florida, I'm suspicious; other polls have it going for McCain against either Democrat.)

What do these states have in common? They fit into two categories: the Northeast and the Appalachian diaspora from West Virginia (or western Pennsylvania) southwest to Oklahoma. In other words, two historically Democratic areas: the Andrew Jackson coalition, you might say. Either Hillary Clinton has special strength with ethnic and Andy Jackson voters (as she certainly does in Arkansas), or Barack Obama has special weakness among them.


Altogether, we're looking at 199 electoral votes. Some are in Obama's home states—Illinois and Hawaii. Some of these states are clearly beyond his reach—Utah, Indiana, Arkansas, Wyoming, Montana. Some I'm skeptical about: I don't believe Obama will be competitive in Nebraska, carry North Dakota, or come within 1 percentage point in Texas (where he's not likely to do well with Latino voters). What do they have in common? Most are part of the New England diaspora, states settled originally by people of New England Yankee stock as colonies or by their descendants who fanned out into the northern Midwest, Great Plains, and Rocky Mountains. The exceptions are the three southern states, all of which have large and growing white-collar metropolitan populations.

Let me do a similar analysis of the Rasmussen 20 state results.


Altogether, states with 36 electoral votes show a Clinton advantage and states with 128 electoral votes show an Obama advantage. However, if you leave California aside, where Clinton has a pretty good lead over McCain, the states with an Obama advantage have 73 electoral votes. The patterns are similar here: Obama doing well in the New England diaspora plus Virginia, with special strength in states in the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa) and Rocky Mountains (Nevada, New Mexico), which were closely contested in 2000 and 2004; Clinton doing well in ethnically diverse Northeast states (New Jersey, Massachusetts) plus, for reasons unclear to me, Washington. (Maybe it's because Washington has two female senators and a female governor.)

One might conclude from this that Obama would be a stronger general election candidate because he would put more states in play. But that conclusion is not compelled by the data. He's clearly weaker than Clinton in some states that Democrats think they need to carry. Moreover, more recent SurveyUSA polls in three states show Obama much weaker after the publicity about Wright. In Ohio, SUSA has Clinton leading McCain 50 to 44 percent, a slightly reduced lead from that in the 50-state survey, and McCain beating Obama 50 to 43 percent, a huge reversal of Obama's 50-40 lead in the 50-state survey. In Missouri, SurveyUSA shows McCain beating Clinton 48 to 46 but walloping Obama 53 to 39. In Kentucky, SurveyUSA shows McCain leading Clinton by an unsurprising 53-43 margin but thumping Obama 64-28. By way of comparison, Richard Nixon beat George McGovern in Kentucky in 1972 by 64 to 35. Obama may be a stronger candidate than Clinton in Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa, but he looks far weaker in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, and Missouri. That leaves the Democratic superdelegates with a tough choice to make.

Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.

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Now, more than ever, the melting pot must be used to keep America great. Barone attacks multiculturalism and anti-American apologists--but he also rejects proposals for building a wall to keep immigrants out, or rounding up millions of illegals to send back home. Rather, the melting pot must be allowed to work (as it has for centuries) to teach new Americans the values, history, and unique spirit of America so they, too, can enjoy the American dream.. Sales help fund JWR.

JWR contributor Michael Barone is a columnist at U.S. News & World Report. Comment by clicking here.




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