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April 21, 2014

Andrew Silow-Carroll: Passoverkill? Suggestions to make next year's seders even more culturally sensitive

Sara Israelsen Hartley: Seeking the Divine: An ancient connection in a new context

Christine M. Flowers: Priest's execution in Syria should be call to action

Courtnie Erickson: How to help kids accept the poor decisions of others

Lizette Borreli: A Glass Of Milk A Day Keeps Knee Arthritis At Bay

Lizette Borreli: 5 Health Conditions Your Breath Knows Before You Do

The Kosher Gourmet by Betty Rosbottom Coconut Walnut Bars' golden brown morsels are a beautifully balanced delectable delight

April 18, 2014

Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology

Caroline B. Glick: The disappearance of US will

Megan Wallgren: 10 things I've learned from my teenagers

Lizette Borreli: Green Tea Boosts Brain Power, May Help Treat Dementia

John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain

The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious

April 14, 2014

Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time

Greg Crosby: Passing Over Religion

Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic

Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships

Cameron Huddleston: Freebies for Your Lawn and Garden

Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin

Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate

Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure

The Kosher Gourmet by Joshua E. London and Lou Marmon Don't dare pass over these Pesach picks for Manischewitz!

April 11, 2014

Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden

Caroline B. Glick: Forgetting freedom at Passover

Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Financial Tasks You Should Tackle Right Now

Sandra Block and Lisa Gerstner: How to Profit From Your Passion

Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer

Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You

The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington Whitefish Terrine: A French take on gefilte fish

April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review Feb. 26, 2008 / 20 Adar I 5768

Delegate Counting in Texas and Ohio

By Michael Barone


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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Let me take the results of the ABC/Washington Post polls in Texas and Ohio and the terrific graphic in Sunday's print Post and try to estimate the delegate count in the primaries if the vote splits the way it does in the poll. Statewide, the poll showed Clinton ahead by the statistically insignificant margin of 48 to 47 percent.

Texas allocates 127 delegates by proportional representation within the 31 state Senate districts (with a 15 percent threshold, which no one but Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will meet). I have Clinton coming out on top in the delegate count by 64 to 62.

That's a pretty dicey count. The poll has Clinton ahead 55 to 38 percent in East Texas, but the four districts entirely in that region have four delegates each, and that split, just barely, leaves the delegate count in each at 2-2 rather than 3-1 Clinton, which she would get with a couple of extra points. I have Obama leading in the two districts with the most delegates, 5-2 in the 13th (Houston blacks) and 6-2 in the 14th (Austin liberals). The count in the latter could be less if Austin Latinos vote heavily for Clinton. I have several four-delegate South Texas Hispanic districts (19th, 20th, 21st) going 3-1 Clinton on the basis of the poll's 61-to-35-percent South Texas split; but if she falls a couple of points short, the districts split 2-2.

The bottom line: If the popular vote in Texas splits about evenly, either candidate could end up with maybe a 10-delegate edge if she or he got lucky in her or his percentages in certain districts, but it's likely to get much closer than that. A close popular vote Clinton win gets her no significant distance closer to pledged delegate parity. And of course Obama looks likely to be better organized to score in the caucuses that will be held later that night. Clinton needs to improve on her current standing in Texas to get her closer to the nomination. And a popular vote loss here looks like curtains for her campaign.

Ohio allocates 49 statewide delegates by proportional representation and 92 delegates by proportional representation within congressional districts. The WaPo poll shows her ahead statewide by 50 to 43 percent. That gives Clinton a 46-43 delegate lead.

In the race for district delegates, I show her ahead 50-44. The poll has her about even in the southwest (Cincinnati and Dayton media markets) and northwest (Toledo media market). All but one of the districts there have even numbers of delegates; I gave Clinton a 3-2 advantage in the 3rd District (Dayton). It could easily go the other way. In the central area (Columbus media market and southeast), which the poll scores as even, only two districts have odd numbers of delegates; I gave those to Clinton (12th Columbus, 18th rural), but with no great conviction on the 12th, which has lots of black and university voters.

The poll gives Clinton a 51 to 39 percent advantage in the northeast, the most Democratic part of Ohio, but doesn't make clear whether that includes Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), which is 28 percent black. I gave Obama only a 5-3 edge in the east side black-majority 11th District (where Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones has supported Clinton); it could easily go 6-2. The three other northeast districts with odd numbers of delegates are unlikely to net Clinton more than a one-delegate advantage each.

The bottom line is that a 7-point advantage in the poll (50-43) seems likely to give Clinton a 6 percentage point advantage in delegates (76-67). That's nine delegates, a long way from overcoming Obama's current lead of 99 delegates (1,374 to 1,275) in Real Clear Politics. The Democrats' proportional representation rules, combined with determining so many delegates by congressional districts, make it hugely difficult for any candidate who is behind in a close delegate race to forge out into a lead. Nobody seems to have thought through the consequences of having allocated so many districts an even number of delegates: In a close race, voters in those districts have almost no chance of casting a decisive vote. Perhaps some trial lawyer will bring a suit on behalf of Democratic voters in districts with an even number of delegates, arguing that they have effectively been shut out of the presidential nominating selection process.

I await the outcome with interest. I have long argued that papers presenting government officials with policy options should have an even number of options. Otherwise there is a middle option, the second of three or the third of five, which is obviously the Goldilocks option, the best of all possible worlds. Providing policymakers with an even number of options, two or four or six, requires them to make a real decision. In the Democratic delegate selection process, voters in districts with an even number of delegates are effectively disenfranchised. My proposal would be to require all districts to have an odd number of delegates, so that every Democratic voter would know that her or his vote counts.

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Now, more than ever, the melting pot must be used to keep America great. Barone attacks multiculturalism and anti-American apologists--but he also rejects proposals for building a wall to keep immigrants out, or rounding up millions of illegals to send back home. Rather, the melting pot must be allowed to work (as it has for centuries) to teach new Americans the values, history, and unique spirit of America so they, too, can enjoy the American dream.. Sales help fund JWR.

JWR contributor Michael Barone is a columnist at U.S. News & World Report. Comment by clicking here.




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