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April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review Feb. 19, 2008 / 13 Adar I 5768

More on a Hillary comeback

By Michael Barone


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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | With the help of the invaluable Green Papers, I made some calculations in a best-case scenario for Hillary Clinton in the Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas primaries. I assumed that Clinton won statewide in each case, and that Obama carried only congressional districts (or in Texas, state Senate districts) dominated by upscale white voters and/or black voters. This is an especially optimistic assumption in Wisconsin, where Clinton currently trails Obama by 4 or 5 percent in public polls. The results are as follows: a 44-30 delegate edge in Wisconsin, an 83-58 delegate edge in Ohio, and an 82-41 delegate edge in Texas. Overall this is an 80-delegate advantage, based (again I emphasize) on optimistic assumptions.


This would be enough to erase the current 58-delegate edge Obama has in total delegates according to Real Clear Politics. But not enough to overcome the 137-delegate edge he has among "pledged delegates," that is, those chosen in caucuses and primaries. And it doesn't account for the fact that Texas on March 4 will also have caucuses to select another 67 delegates. The Obama campaign has swamped the Clinton campaign in almost all the caucuses and probably has far more in the way of organization in Texas's 254 counties than the Clinton campaign does.


What about the other post-February contests? Here's my brief take on each:


  • Rhode Island primary, March 4. Clinton has done well with downscale Catholic voters, which accounts for most of the Rhode Island electorate. More like Massachusetts, which she carried, than Connecticut, which she lost.

  • Vermont primary, March 4. Obama all the way.

  • Wyoming county caucuses, March 8. If it's anything like Idaho, Obama.

  • Mississippi primary, March 11. Mississippi has the highest black percentage of any state, which suggests Obama will win. But if, as in Alabama and Louisiana, a fairly large number of whites choose to participate, then Clinton could make it competitive.

  • Democrats Abroad caucuses, March 15. I have to think Obama carries these worldly types.

  • Pennsylvania primary, April 22. The Pennsylvania numbers look a lot like the Ohio numbers.

  • Guam territorial convention, May 3 (tentative date). No clue.

  • Indiana primary, May 6. 9 percent black, 4 percent Hispanic. The Democratic primary electorate looks a lot like Ohio's. Could be favorable to Clinton.

  • North Carolina primary, May 6. 22 percent black, 5 percent Hispanic. The Democratic primary electorate is liable to be 30-35 percent black, possibly more, which is favorable to Obama. So is the fact that some of the Democratic primary electorate (especially in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill triangle, less so in Clinton) is upscale and culturally liberal. So half the electorate is tilted his way. This looks like Virginia with a considerably smaller Northern Virginia: Obama country, but by a considerably lesser margin.

  • West Virginia primary, May 13. Downscale, elderly, and overwhelmingly white, the primary electorate here presumably favors Clinton.

  • Kentucky primary, May 20. The Democratic primary electorate here is not as downscale, elderly, and overwhelmingly white as West Virginia's, but it comes fairly close. Favorable to Clinton.

  • Oregon primary, May 20. Obama won't likely win here by as much as he did in the Washington caucuses, but he's likely to win.

  • Montana primary, June 3. An interesting question. Obama won't be as strong here as in Western state caucuses.

  • South Dakota primary, June 3. Former Senator Tom Daschle is actively supporting Obama, but the state demographically looks more pro-Clinton.

  • Puerto Rico caucuses, June 7. I have written on these elsewhere. An interesting continuing tale.


My bottom line take: The turf looks fairly favorable to Clinton, provided she wins Ohio and Texas March 4. Not favorable enough, perhaps, for her to overtake Obama in "pledged" delegates, but enough to keep the overall delegate count excruciatingly close, unless the superdelegates start cascading to Obama. (Maybe they have: Congressman John Lewis has evidently switched.) But if Clinton loses either Ohio or Texas, that's a sign that the ground thereafter will be less favorable to her. Losing Ohio would suggest she can't carry Pennsylvania or Indiana. Losing Texas suggests she can't carry Mississippi, North Carolina, West Virginia, or Kentucky. Losing either probably means the superdelegate cascade starts in torrents, and she falls well behind in total delegate count. In which case her candidacy is probably effectively over.


And even if she wins Ohio and Texas, she's still not likely, I think (no, I haven't done the delegate arithmetic yet), to accumulate enough "pledged" delegates to win without an edge in superdelegates, and perhaps without getting the Florida and, more problematically, Michigan delegations seated. But I certainly don't see her quitting in these circumstances.

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