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Jewish World Review July 10, 1998 / 16 Tamuz, 5758
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| Is he dead-wrong about being dead-right? |
THE LACK OF PROGRESS on the Israeli-Palestinian front
is more than frustrating. It’s dangerous. The effects
are often less than dramatic, but they are
cumulative, as seen from a variety of disturbing
events in recent days.
Over the weekend, Egyptian President Hosni
Mubarak, Jordan’s King Hussein and Palestinian
Authority Chairman Yasir Arafat met in Cairo, and
issued a warning about the chances of violence in
the area increasing if there is no forward movement
in negotiations. This could be interpreted as empty saber rattling, but these
are the three Arab leaders who have committed to resolving their
differences with Israel peaceably, and they are clearly frustrated with Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Put aside for a moment the question of whether it is fair to blame
Netanyahu for the stalemate and let us simply acknowledge that there is
almost no trust between the Israeli leader and Mubarak, King Hussein and
Arafat.
If the basic premises still hold that the Mideast conflict must be resolved
through direct negotiations and that the longer they are delayed the more
dangerous the situation to all the parties, then we have plenty of reason to
worry. There have been several flare-ups between Israelis and Palestinians
in the last few days in Hebron and Gaza, any one of which could have led to
large-scale violence. In Gaza, a 12-hour standoff between Israeli and
Palestinian police, with guns pointed at each other, was resolved only
through international diplomacy. But how long can the bullet be dodged?
In late September 1973, King Hussein flew in to Tel Aviv and held a secret
meeting with Israeli leaders to warn that a war was imminent. Golda Meir,
the prime minister at the time, did not believe him, instead relying on her
own security people who concluded that the warning was a trick. Eleven
days later, the Arabs launched the Yom Kippur War, which cost Israel more
than 2,500 lives.
In recent days, King Hussein has been warning Israel that the situation in the
territories is highly charged and could explode in violence at any time.
What’s different this time is that Israeli intelligence analysts are agreeing
with the dire assessment, but Netanyahu does not seem to be taking these
concerns seriously.
Even his closest advisers admit that they are unsure of Netanyahu’s thinking.
In the last several weeks he embraced the idea of a national referendum on
redeployment, then dropped it. Similarly, he suggested a Madrid-style
international conference, but that too came up empty. Critics insist that
these are stalling tactics to suggest creativity and movement when there is
neither. Defenders prefer to focus on the fact that it is the Palestinians who
are the most serious offenders when it comes to non-compliance of the
Oslo Accords.
What we have here is two parallel universes, with both Israel and the
Palestinians insisting that they are the aggrieved party, pointing to the other
as the cause for mistrust and inaction.
Washington is trying to appear even-handed, though it is clear that
frustration with Netanyahu is running high. Its highly publicized proposal for
redeployment follows Netanyahu’s demand for quid-pro-quo guarantees
from the Palestinians; the fact that Israel continues to delay is hurting its
relationship with Washington in subtle ways. For example, the Clinton
administration’s recent diplomatic overtures to Iran are worrisome to Israel,
not only because they come at a time when Tehran is developing long-range
missiles but because Jerusalem is being kept out of the loop in formulating a
strategic policy. And at the United Nations, Washington did not seem to go
out of its way to avert a resolution upgrading the Palestinian Authority’s
observer status.
So the conclusion that Netanyahu is most to blame for the Mideast
stalemate is taking its toll.
How can it be that this Israeli leader, who rose to his country’s highest office
on the strength of his mastery of the media, manages to have a more
negative image than one of the world’s deadliest terrorists?
In part this proves that, more than ever, historic memory is fleeting, and
counts for almost nothing on the stage of current events. Arafat’s bloody past
is forgotten. Today he is perceived as the long-suffering leader of an
oppressed people whose violent outbreaks are understood, if not condoned,
by most world leaders.
Netanyahu can continue to harp away at Palestinian transgressions, scoring
points with the right wing of his cabinet and constituency, or he can
confront the reality that if he does not take a meaningful step forward, the
situation can deteriorate into serious and prolonged violence. He should not
make overtures to please the Palestinians, but to protect his own people,
since he has always asserted that Israeli security is paramount.
Otherwise he will go on winning the battle -- in the sense of defying the
U.S. and the Arabs -- but risk losing the
By Gary Rosenblatt
New JWR contributor Garry Rosenblatt is Publisher and Editor of the New York Jewish Week
