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Jewish World Review March 30, 2009 / 5 Nissan 5769 New York Has a Referendum on Obama: The special House election upstate could have far-reaching consequences By John H. Fund
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
Hudson, N.Y. --With so many contradictory polls out there, it's useful information when actual voters cast ballots. That's why this coming Tuesday's special House election in New York's Hudson River Valley is important.
It will be the first gauge of President Barack Obama's early days, and as the National Journal reports "it's his stimulus package that's the focus of the debate here." The furor over the bonuses given out by American International Group (AIG), which a loophole in the stimulus bill allowed, has only heightened the attention that the race is getting both in New York and in Washington where officials in both parties are hoping for a win.
The vacancy in New York's 20th congressional district — which stretches north from Poughkeepsie to Lake Placid — was created when Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed to fill Hillary Clinton's U.S. Senate seat. Traditionally the district has been represented by Republicans, but like most of the Northeast it has been lurching left. Last November, Barack Obama carried the district, and Ms. Gillibrand won 62% against a former New York secretary of state who spent $6 million against her.
To replace Ms. Gillibrand, Democrats put up a fresh face, the kind of candidate that helped Rahm Emanuel take back the House for Democrats in 2006. Scott Murphy is a Harvard-educated venture capitalist who only moved into the area three years ago from Missouri. Using perfect Rahm-speak, he says he'll join the moderate Blue Dog Democrats if elected.
Republicans are running Jim Tedisco, who now heads his party in the state Assembly after 26 years in Albany. Mr. Tedisco won notoriety last year after blocking drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants and having then Gov. Eliot Spitzer call him up on the phone to declare he was "a f—— steamroller and I will roll over you and anybody else."
The battle lines between Mr. Murphy and Mr. Tedisco were drawn after the federal stimulus bill passed last month. The Democrat wrapped himself around it, saying in ads "he knows we need the president's economic recovery plan." Mr. Tedisco hesitated, giving rambling nonanswers as to whether he would have backed it.
Then the AIG bonus uproar hit. Mr. Tedisco declared he opposed the stimulus bill and pounced on the fact that Mr. Murphy won't say if he read the plan before he backed it. Mr. Murphy shot back during a debate this week: "My opponent couldn't tell us what he thought for 30 days. I don't know if he was waiting for a poll."
Mr. Tedisco admits he "made a mistake" in not making his position known, but he is now in full-throated opposition. Mr. Murphy responds by contrasting his private-sector experience with the "career Albany politician" he paints Mr. Tedisco as. His ads slam the Republican for accepting legislative perks.
Recent softening in approval of Mr. Obama's policies gives Mr. Tedisco real hope. But as a legislator he is inevitably linked to a discredited state government that has seen both parties fail the voters. "He's a machine politician at a time when people are looking for reform," says K.T. McFarland, who ran for the U.S. Senate as a Republican in 2006 only to be elbowed aside by party regulars. She thinks Mr. Tedisco will win, but mostly because of voters' desire to send a message about "Obama overreach."
Mr. Tedisco is certainly playing it safe with voter anger. He would have voted for the bill to impose a 90% tax rate on AIG executives who got bonuses because "when you have the public so upset you have to act." He was handed a gift last week when Mr. Murphy made a rare misstep by telling a radio station he opposed the death penalty, even for terrorists.
Both parties are dramatically lowering expectations in the race. Democratic Rep. Steve Israel touts the district's conservative heritage and says a loss here would be a "huge setback" for the GOP.
Even Republicans note a brand new Siena College poll of the race that shows Mr. Obama with 65% approval in the district. It also shows the Democrat now leads by four points. Mr. Murphy has 84% of Democrats behind him, while Mr. Tedisco should worry he has only 64% of Republicans behind him.
All this makes the president's low-key involvement curious. A Democratic consultant close to the race bitterly complained to Politico.com that the Democratic National Committee isn't having Mr. Obama do more than send out an email message of support for Mr. Murphy and perhaps tape robocalls. "Is the DNC only going to promote the president's agenda?" he complained.
With the race so close, get-out-the vote efforts by outside groups will be key. Mr. Murphy has received more than $315,000 from the Service Employees International Union, while Mr. Tedisco is heavily backed by conservative groups. A former special-education teacher, Mr. Tedisco is getting last-minute volunteer help from home-schooling parents.
But the president is hanging back in the game. Should Republicans win, he will try to chalk it up as no big surprise. If Democrats prevail, you can bet the White House will herald it as evidence of grass-roots support for its agenda. What's strange is how little confidence the White House seems to have in a Democratic candidate tailor-made for a district Barack Obama carried just five months ago.
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JWR contributor John H. Fund is author, most recently, of "Stealing Elections: How Voter Fraud Threatens Our Democracy". (Click HERE to purchase. Sales help fund JWR.) Comment on this column by clicking here.
© 2006, John H. Fund |
Arnold Ahlert | |||||||||||
