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Jewish World Review
Nov. 5, 2012/ 20 Mar-Cheshvan, 5773
Out on a Limb, Predicting A Big Victory For . . .
By
Bernard Goldberg
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
Unlike Dick Morris and most of my conservative pals, I have no idea who's going to win on Tuesday.
Dick, as you know if you've watched Fox even for a few seconds, not only thinks Mitt Romney is going to win, he thinks he's going to win big. Except for the aforementioned pals of mine, Dick has been pretty much alone on that one. Rasmussen and Gallup and everyone else think it's going to be close. This pretty much means that Dick Morris either belongs in an asylum or he's a political genius. I'm hoping for the latter.
But now comes another serious political thinker, knowledgeable and sober in his analysis who also thinks Romney is going to win and like Dick Morris, thinks it's not going to be close.
Michael Barone , whose column appears on JWR, writes that, "Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.
"But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery - Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick."
So here goes, in Barone's own words, his assessment of some key states:
Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.
Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.
Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer's remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats' traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.
Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.
New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.
Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.
Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.
Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.
Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.
Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there's no auto bailout issue. Obama.
That would give Romney 315 electoral votes … and 223 for the president.
This is way too optimistic for me. Any prognosticator who thinks Romney is going to win Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania makes me wonder if he's been watching too much Dick Morris on TV, though it certainly is possible.
But like I said, I don't have a clue as to who's going to be delivering a victory speech Tuesday night that is, if we even know the winner by Tuesday night.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
Comment by clicking here.
JWR contributor Bernard Goldberg, the television news reporter and author of several bestselling books, among them, Bias, a New York Times number one bestseller about how the media distort the news. He is widely seen as one of the most original writers and thinkers in broadcast journalism. Mr. Goldberg covered stories all over the world for CBS News and has won 10 Emmy awards for excellence in journalism. He now reports for the widely acclaimed HBO broadcast Real Sports.
He is a graduate of Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey and a member of the school's Hall of Distinguished Alumni and proprietor of BernardGoldberg.com.
Previously:
• 1101/12: Should Mitt Talk to Bill?
• 10/30/12: Really Dumb Conservatives . . .
• 10/23/12: Debate #3: How Much Does Foreign Policy Matter If You Can't Find a Job?
• 10/22/12: When Conservatives Are As Dopey as Liberals . . .
• 10/19/12: Journalists' Who Don't Even Try to Hide Their Bias
• 10/17/12: Obama Stopped the Bleeding --- But Was That Enough to Change the Momentum?
• 10/15/12: No Winner in the Debate --- But Maybe a Loser
• 10/08/12: The October Surprise
• 10/04/12: Civil War in the GOP Could Go Nuclear on Nov 7
• 10/01/12: Even If He Wins, Obama Will Lose
• 09/27/12: Obama Picks Up a Crucial Demographic
• 09/26/12: If Obama Thinks He Inherited a Mess Four Years Ago . . .
• 09/24/12: A Good Way to Kill Free Speech
• 08/30/12: Facts I Have Uncovered About the Real Mitt Romney
• 08/23/12: Hope and Change, R.I.P.s
• 08/16/12: Who's Smarter: Joe Biden or Yogi Berra?
• 08/13/12: His Silence Makes Him Complicit
• 08/07/12: Did You Know that Harry Reid Got Rich Pimping Out HOs?
• 08/02/12: Like Birds on a Telephone Wire
• 07/30/12: What Me Worry? YES!
• 07/26/27: The Mystery Continues --- A Tale of Two Polls
• 07/16/27: We've Set a Low Bar for 'Courage'
• 07/11/27: Will Class Warfare Work?
• 07/09/27: A Brave New World
• 07/02/27: Now the Fun Really Starts
• 06/19/27: You Can't Make This Stuff Up . . .
• 06/19/12: I Would Have Fired Him Before He Got Back to the Office
• 06/12/12: Time to Crush the Myth about Gender Pay Inequality
• 06/06/12: The Desperate Campaign of Barack Obama
• 06/01/12: Hey Fatso! Listen Up!
• 05/25/12: Going After the Stupid Vote
• 05/22/12: The X Factor(s)!
• 05/15/12: Obama Has a Halo; Newsweek Has No Shame
• 05/10/12: Authoritarians on Campus
• 05/08/12: Obama's Path to Victory: Divide and Conquer
• 05/01/12: President Cool Meets Reality
• 04/25/12: Why Media Bias Matters
• 04/17/12: NYT: At It Again
• 04/13/12: Kissing up to the Rev. Al
• 04/10/12: This Just In: War Breaks Out --- Thank You, Lord
• 04/03/12: In Cold Blood?
• 03/27/12: Trayvon Martin and Media Hypocrisy
• 03/26/12: Time to Go, Rick
• 03/22/12: Obama's Mantra: Don't Blame Me
• 03/19/12: The U.N. Human Rights Council --- and other Jokes
• 03/13/12: Bias in the News: Blame it on Their Zip Code
• 03/06/12: Thank Heaven for Rich People --- a Second Look
• 02/29/12: Some Free Advice for the Republican Field
• 02/28/12: Do We Have a Right to Lie?
• 02/16/12: Can Obama Win Re-Election by Promising Free Stuff?
• 02/06/12: The 5 Stages of Mitt
• 02/02/12: Florida Has Spoken; Cue the Fat Lady
• 01/30/12: The Other Global Warming Story
• 01/26/12: They See Racists Everywhere . . .
• 01/24/12: The Arrogant and Clueless Mainstream Media
• 01/23/12: Gingrich Wins SC --- Media Help Big Time
• 01/18/12: A New Entry for 100 People Who Are Screwing Up America
• 01/12/12: The Dream Ticket Could Be a Conservative Nightmare
• 01/11/12: Now 'Anybody But Romney' Has a Name
• 12/30/11: I Have a Confession to Make . . .
• 12/27/11: Know When to Hold 'em and Know When to Fold 'em
• 12/20/11: NBC News, the KKK and the State of Journalism
• 12/19/11: Mitt and Newt: Two Rich Guys Arguing Over Money
• 12/13/11: Donald Trump Is the Greatest; Just Ask Him
• 12/12/11: Rob Peter to Pay Paul: Bad Economics! Good Politics?
• 12/07/11: Yeah . . . and Fish Don't Know They're Wet, Either
• 12/06/11: Did the Media Play Fair with Herman Cain?
• 12/05/11: Obama to Blue-Collar America: Adios!
• 11/29/11: We Can Stop the Crazy Train Before It Gets to Greece
• 11/22/11: Who Can Beat Obama?
• 11/15/11: The Dumbest Media Question I've Ever Heard
• 11/09/11: What If Herman Cain Did It?
• 11/08/11: What If Herman Cain Were a Lib?
• 11/02/11: Who Can Beat Obama?
• 11/01/11: We're Approaching the Tipping Point
• 10/25/11: A Response to the Angry Purists
• 10/18/11: They're Waiting for Reagan to Hit the Campaign Trail
• 10/12/11: Read This!!! --- But Only If You Have Nothing Better To Do
• 10/04/11: Can Obama Win Re-Election?
• 09/27/11: It's NOT the Economy Stupid, It's Theology
• 09/20/11: Bad News on the Doorstep
• 09/09/11: Hypocrisy!
• 09/06/11: Back to the Future
• 08/24/11: Hillary vs. Obama in 2012? It'll Never Happen --- I Don't Think
• 08/22/11: Warning: Conservatives May Be Harmful to Your Mental Health
• 08/17/11: Warren Buffett, Coddled Billionaire
• 08/11/11: Too Much Balance in the Media?
• 08/04/11: All Aboard the Crazy Train
• 08/01/11: Liberal Hate Speech
• 07/25/11: With All Due Respect, Go Fly a Kite
• 07/20/11: Who Is A Natural Born Citizen?
• 07/18/11: Guess Who's Not Paying Their Fair Share
• 07/12/11: Against More Taxes? You May Be a Terrorist!
• 07/11/11: Casey Anthony: The TV Show
• 07/06/11: Standards and Double Standards at MSNBC
• 06/29/11: Is Jon Stewart A Racist?
• 06/21/11: Let's Play the Race Card --- Just for Fun Of Course
• 06/20/11: Sarah Palin and Weiner's Weiner
• 06/03/11: Memo to GOP: Turn Mr. Obama into Mr. Yesterday
• 05/20/11: I Get Letters From People Who Should Be Locked Up
• 05/09/11: Is Torture Ever Justified?
• 05/02/11: The Promiscuous Use of the R Word
• 04/19/11: The Man Behind the Million Dollar Smile
• 04/12/11: What's the Difference Between Libs in Politics and Libs in the Media?
• 04/08/11: An Idea Whose Time Has Come and Gone
• 03/28/11: The Pundits Are Driving Me Crazy --- And You Thought Qadaffi Is Nuts
• 03/14/11: No Liberal Bias at NPR Just Ask NPR
• 03/10/11: The media's frustration
• 03/01/11: Progressives Lost in Time . . .
• 02/23/11: The Lamestreams Strike Again --- This Time in Madison
• 02/03/11: You MUST Own a Gun --- Or Else!
• 01/20/11: It Was Horrible, I tell you … HORRIBLE!
• 01/11/11: Here We Go Again . . .
• 01/06/11: You Go, Oprah
• 12/28/10: A Year-Ender --- The MSM and Obama's Fall from Grace
• 12/14/10: Thank Heaven for Rich People
• 12/02/10: The Phony Nobility of Wikileaks
© 2011, Bernard Goldberg
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