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Jewish World Review Oct 5, 2011 / 7 Tishrei, 5772 Moneyball, Economics and Medicine By Alan Douglas
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
If you have read the book, or seen the movie, "Moneyball" you know how the business of baseball became more business-like. "Moneyball" used statistics to determine the compensation paid players based on their performance rather than relying on evaluations based of the experience of coaches and scouts. The movie gives you the story of a loner, under-dog coach and a nerd fighting the establishment. But this is no Ayn Rand tale, any advantage these innovations gave the under-dog were wiped out when the deep pocket, major market baseball teams adopt the same methods, making them even more efficient and even richer.
"Moneyball" should remind us that problem solving often is less rational and logical than we think. Maslow said, "If all you have is a hammer, all your problems look like nails." In the movie, "The Sting" the young con man observers their "marks," and he sneers, "Those guys aren't as smart as they think they are." The older, and wiser, con man cautions, "And there are we." Liberal Democrats see an attack on the poor by the rich who won't pay their fair share. Conservatives Republicans are alarmed at out of control, big government and reckless spending. Most Americans do not believe either political party can be counted on to keep score fairly. There is always an election; an opportunity or threat to distract us. To solve our countries economic woes we need to agree on how we are to look at the situation.
The government reversed itself and now approved for use a device for diagnosing melanoma that relies on a database of pictures and algorithms. The camera takes pictures and similar to facial recognition programs, the device's software compares it to a large database of pictures of proven cases of the cancer. It doesn't avoid all biopsies, nor is it perfect. It is more accurate than doctors at diagnosing cancer. Why? The new device has more "experience" than an individual doctor.
Watson, the IBM super computer became a Jeopardy champion, and is now being deployed to solve diagnosing medical conditions. Past experience tells us that technology is now going to change healthcare, just as "Moneyball" signaled baseball's tipping point. Americans spend billions of dollars each year for prescription drugs, vitamins, supplements and remedies. Most Americans do not believe medical research studies by drug companies or by universities and doctors in their employ can be counted on to keep score fairly.
Both the good and bad statistics for baseball players are available. Drugs and medical devices that succeed are gleefully published, but not the failures. Like the coaches and scouts in "Moneyball" who tried their best to guess their way to the best choice, today's doctors are drowning in data, and starved for reliable information. Having tons of studies and research is not the answer. When doctors and medical students were tested, most did not have the statistical training to analyze medical research studies correctly.
Medicine and government are being conducted like pre-"Moneyball" baseball. My conservative doctor friends tell me, "We need to get government out of healthcare. We need to lower taxes to encourage more students to become doctors. We need more government support for medical schools so medical students do not start out with the crushing burden of debt from government loans." My liberal friends tell me, "Doctors shouldn't be subsidized, and then guaranteed they will become rich. We must spend money giving everyone universal preventive medical care…that pays off in the long run." When Conservatives call for more government funding and Liberals explain profit I start scratching my head. No one wants to look at the stats.
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JWR contributor Alan Douglas, an author, media executive, speaker, and attorney, lives con brio- except when he is grumpy.
Justice, My Aunt, and Gretsky
© 2010 Alan Douglas
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Arnold Ahlert | |||||||||||||
