Home
In this issue
April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review Oct. 5, 2010 / 27 Tishrei, 5771

The dangers of under confidence

By Dick Morris And Eileen McGann




http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Just as when the Republican establishment wrote off Scott Brown's effort to capture "Ted Kennedy's" seat in the Senate, the Washington Republicans may be under estimating the number of seats the GOP can capture in the House of Representatives.

Over confidence is not a danger. Everybody is working as hard as they can to elect Republicans all over America. Nobody is apathetic on the right. The only indifference and passivity in the nation is on the left. But under confidence - writing off seats that we can win - is a huge obstacle to further progress.

Distinguish yourself as an effective communicator, manager, leader and decision-maker. Earn credentials 100% online from top-ranked University of Notre Dame The swath of destruction Obama has cut through our economy, banking system, manufacturing base, and medical profession is so broad and ugly that Republicans and Independents everywhere are determined to end his mandate by electing a Republican Congress in 2010. Seats that Republicans had no chance to win in previous elections are suddenly in play. With scores of Democratic incumbent Congressmen polling at under 50% of the vote, the possibilities for Republican gains are enormous.

But Republican funding and tactical focus is having a hard time keeping pace with the political developments on the ground. Handicappers like Cook Political Report are slow in switching their predictions quickly enough as the Republican wave sweeps through the nation. GOP national committees and PACs run the risk that they will concentrate too much money on races that are already won, leaving opportunities to rot on the vine in other districts.

This process of under estimating the chances for Republican victories is fed by two mistakes in polling methodology - and one in survey analysis -- which are understating Republican chances in the coming elections.

While most pollsters survey only likely voters, their screens to determine who will vote are too porous, letting through many who will not actually make it to the polls. Most surveys simply ask if voters are likely to participate or not rather than asking how enthusiastic the survey participant is about voting. Rankings based on enthusiasm and intensity - sure guides to actual turnout - are generating far more Republican samples than those that are ultimately published.

And many pollsters are weighting their data so their samples conform to traditional party distribution. When their samples yield too many self-described Republicans and too few Democrats (as measured against historic norms) they weight down the Republican interviews and weight up the Democratic ones to adjust. But, in reality, they are obscuring the very findings of their surveys. Voters are becoming more Republican and Democrats are becoming Independents. These trends are hard to spot when data is weighted.

Finally, in assessing the meaning of the polls, analysts are underestimating the ability of Republican challengers to defeat Democratic incumbents who are under 50% of the vote. The undecided vote usually goes to the challenger. A host of Republican insurgents with limited name recognition are running behind their Democratic incumbent adversaries because voters don't know who they are. But, if the incumbent is failing to win a majority of his district, these voters will likely vote for the challenger when they learn his name as the campaign unfolds.

Taken together, these flaws in polling and the widening range of Republican capabilities should militate for readjusting GOP sights to aim at more Democratic districts and races that once seemed impossible. Over confidence is not our problem. A lack of belief in our potential is.

=<<

Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.



BUY THE BOOK

Click HERE to purchase it at a discount. (Sales help fund JWR.).


Comment by clicking here.



Dick Morris Archives


© 2009, Dick Morris

Columnists

Toons

Lifestyles