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Jan. 8, 2009
Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence Report: Arab regimes secretly rooting for Israel?
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Anne Applebaum: Pointless Peace Proposals
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Dennis Prager: Dissecting Dershowitz
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Dec. 31, 2008
Dore Gold: Is Israel Using 'Disproportionate Force'?
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Jonathan Mark: Israel's Response Is Disproportionate
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Dec. 29, 2008
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Michael B. Oren: A crisis and an opportunity
Dec. 26, 2008
Rabbi Yonason Goldson: When the past meets the future
Caroline B. Glick: Iran and Hamas do Christmas
Dec. 24, 2008
Rabbi Dovid Zauderer: Judaism's Santa problem
The Kosher Gourmet by Ethel G. Hofman CHANUKAH FORK-FINGER FOOD FEAST
Dec. 23, 2008
Caroline B. Glick: Repeating failure in Gaza
Dec. 22, 2008
Rabbi Boruch Leff: Too many Jews today are missing the intended purpose of one of Judaism's most beloved holidays
Barry Rubin: Liar, liar, pants on cease-fire
Dec. 19, 2008
Rabbi Yonason Goldson: The Final Battlefield
Caroline B. Glick: Betting on a dead horse
Dec. 18, 2008
The Kosher Gourmet
by Steve Petusevsky: Juicy Chef's hella top, hella bottom, hallelujah in the middle
Craig Crossman : More gifts for geeks --- and those who love them
Dec. 17, 2008
Dion Nissenbaum: Israel kicks out outrageously biased UN official
Craig Crossman : Gifts for geeks --- and those who love them
Dec. 16, 2008
Jonathan Rosenblum: The Gift of Joy
Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.: Uncle Shariah
Dec. 15, 2008
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Barry Rubin: What they say isn't what you hear
Dec. 12, 2008
Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Can the Bible be a secular language?
Caroline B. Glick: What a PM Netanyahu faces from Washington
Dec. 11, 2008
Rabbi Leiby Burnham: Our role in the Divine's global corporation, World Inc.
The Kosher Gourmet
by Steve Petusevsky: A retro-tasting pareve pot pie made with a light hand
Dec. 10, 2008
Rabbi Paysach J. Krohn: Groom admits he was caught "red handed"
Kara McGuire: No money for gifts? No problem
Dec. 9, 2008
The Jewish Ethicist
by Rabbi Dr. Asher Meir : Can I make my boss treat me fairly?
Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence Report: Next Steps in the Indo-Pakistani Crisis
Dec. 8, 2008
Rabbi Avi Shafran: 'Chanukah Bush' flap and graciousness
Mark Steyn: Jews get killed, but Muslims feel vulnerable
Dec. 5, 2008
Rabbi A. Henach Leibowitz: Truth --- The Key to Gratitude
Jeff Jacoby: UN's obsession is grotesque and Orwellian
Oct. 29, 2003
Mortimer B. Zuckerman: Graffiti On History's Walls (MUST-READ!)
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Jewish World Review
Oct. 24, 2008
/ 25 Tishrei 5769
McCain's last chance
By
Dick Morris & Eileen Mc Gann
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
Today and the weekend are the last chance McCain has to get back into this race. To understand why, let's briefly recap what's happened since the conventions.
McCain left the back-to-back conventions with a lead for the first time in the presidential race. His strength was fueled by his designation of Sarah Palin and the enthusiasm she aroused in the Republican base. The Democrats, caught off guard, attacked her viciously which only reinforced the perception of a woman being victimized by a sexist left.
Then McCain lost the first two debates. Regardless of what observers think happened (we thought he lost the first and won the second), the fact is that his poll numbers deteriorated after each performance. The financial crisis extinguished any lead McCain may have had exacerbated by what must be seen, in hindsight, as the biggest mistake of his campaign - his decision to "suspend" his campaign and return to Washington to work on the bailout. McCain's subsequent docile support for the package, earmarks and all, destroyed the perception he had carefully built during his convention and subsequently of independence from Bush and of a populist antipathy to greedy Wall Street barons.
As a result of the debates, the crisis, and McCain's ineptitude, Obama surged to a lead of 7-9 points around October 13th.
Then, amazingly, McCain won the third debate. Using a populist appeal and fighting hard, he echoed the complaints of Joe the Plumber against Obama's plan to "spread the wealth around." From Wednesday, October 15 through Saturday, October 18th, McCain sliced the Obama lead to five points - an average of all the polling.
But the effect of the debate began to wear off on Sunday, October 19th and McCain began to fall back again. By now, Obama has an average lead of 7.2 points, according to realclearpolitics.com. (The AP poll showing a dead heat is the only one to show such data, unfortunately).
Much of Obama's rise this week has been due to his domination of the paid advertising. With his coffers swollen by $150 million raised in September, he can buy any available advertising time. But McCain has considerable resources at his disposal as well. For the week that started this past Tuesday, October 21st, McCain is running about four ads to every five that Obama airs in swing states.
(Technically, McCain is airing about 2500 household rating points per week as against Obama's 3300. One household rating point means that one percent of the households are watching the ad. So 2500 points in a given week suggests that each household is seeing about 25 ads per week, or about four each day. While Obama is spending more money, the difference between seeing four McCain ads and five Obama spots each day is not significant.)
And, starting on Monday of this week, McCain began running an attack ad specifically aimed at the issues first raised by Joe the Plumber. Showing footage of his chat with Obama, the McCain ad hammers home the tax issue, noting that Obama's so-called tax cut for 100 million Americans is really a welfare check for the half of them who pay no taxes. The ad is hard hitting and effective. More importantly, it is running in the clear without other McCain media to clutter up the message.
So McCain has his best ad on his best issue with as close to financial parity with Obama as he is likely to get. If, in these circumstances, he cannot gain ground during the next few days, the race will be functionally over. But if the Republicans can get traction, it could become a competitive contest again.
Godspeed John McCain.
Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
JWR contributor Dick Morris is author, most recently, of "Fleeced: How Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Media Mockery of Terrorist Threats, Liberals Who Want to Kill Talk Radio, the Do-Nothing Congress, Companies ... Are Scamming Us ... and What to Do About It". (Click HERE to purchase. Sales help fund JWR.) Comment by clicking here.
Dick Morris Archives
© 2008, Dick Morris
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