It's the dilemma facing just about all who dare peek into their 401(k) statements or other investments these days: Should they sell a mutual fund or all their funds?
Just about anything in a 401(k) looks ugly. So what's a person to do?
This is becoming an increasingly complex decision, even for the pros, who are starting to realize that current financial conditions aren't modeling the experiences they've had for the last couple of decades.
"We've been talking people down from the ledge," said financial planner Ross Levin of Edina, Minn.
Individuals without guidance from a professional often fret even more than those snuggled by advisers. That's because many have no idea how to properly invest and never knew the right way to pick mutual funds for 401(k) plans or other accounts. While stocks were climbing, that didn't bother them. Now it does.
So a look at how financial planners make decisions might help:
Individuals often pick mutual funds in their 401(k)'s or other investment accounts like throwing darts. One fund looks good - maybe earning more money than another in the previous months. So individuals grab the apparent winner, figuring it's the best fund. With time, however, it changes with the ups and downs in the stock market, and winners start looking like losers.
Planners proceed differently. They don't look for the "best" fund, or give up on funds just because they've lost money. They select a variety of funds, because the variety insulates people somewhat from the bad times. They have their clients hold onto the entire variety in good times and bad.
At any particular time, the mixture can look like a mistake, but the planners have clients stick with it because, historically, every awful time in the market has eventually turned into a moneymaker.
Because predicting the ups and downs is impossible, planners don't try. They tell their clients to "stay the course." But that doesn't mean to hold a hodgepodge of stocks and funds. For a middle-age person, it means retirement savings invested roughly like this:
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30 percent in one or two funds that invest in large company stocks.
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10 percent in one or two funds that invest in smaller company stocks.
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20 percent in one or two international stock funds.
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40 percent in bonds or cash.
If you had that mixture for retirement savings, you would not like what you see.
The average mutual fund that invests in large-company stocks has lost 36 percent this year. Those investing in small-company stocks have lost 35 percent. And international funds have declined 44 percent on average, according to Lipper Inc., which tracks fund performance.
If you mixed stock and bond funds in a 60/40 combination, your loss now might be about 20 percent.
That might seem atrocious. But planners assume time cures all.
"If you are a young 401(k) investor, you have nothing to worry about," Levin said.
Although it might seem crazy to hold onto a large-company fund that has lost 36 percent this year, a financial planner would see such a fund as average. Because the planner would be determined to hold onto a large-cap fund at all times, an average fund would be considered a keeper. The planner would unload a fund only if, for a couple of years, it continuously performed worse than the average. And they would be especially inclined to dump an expensive fund that lagged the average - a fund with an expense ratio of 1.4 percent or higher. Typically, lower-cost funds - those charging you under 1 percent - perform best.
Although planners rely somewhat on history, and urge investors to be patient, history is not a guarantee. For clients who simply can't handle the stress of staying with their investments, planners have people shave away some money rather than fleeing entirely from a fund.
For example, a person who might have 60 percent in stocks could move some money out of stocks to have 50 percent in stocks.
While some financial planners would say to take a little money out of large, small and international stock funds equally, Merrill Lynch strategist Richard Bernstein said he'd be inclined now to favor large-company funds and cut back on small caps and international - funds vulnerable in a recession.
An investor who removed money from stocks could shift it temporarily into a money market or stable value fund, two of the safest choices in a 401(k). Planners would prefer another alternative: Leave money that's already in the 401(k) in a variety of stock and bond funds, but devote new contributions to a money market fund.
"Two of my clients wanted to stop putting money into a 401(k)," said Jeff Kostis, a Vernon Hills, Ill., financial planner. "That would have been a mistake. Everyone with a 401(k) must make sure they contribute enough to get the match."
