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April 21, 2014

Andrew Silow-Carroll: Passoverkill? Suggestions to make next year's seders even more culturally sensitive

Sara Israelsen Hartley: Seeking the Divine: An ancient connection in a new context

Christine M. Flowers: Priest's execution in Syria should be call to action

Courtnie Erickson: How to help kids accept the poor decisions of others

Lizette Borreli: A Glass Of Milk A Day Keeps Knee Arthritis At Bay

Lizette Borreli: 5 Health Conditions Your Breath Knows Before You Do

The Kosher Gourmet by Betty Rosbottom Coconut Walnut Bars' golden brown morsels are a beautifully balanced delectable delight

April 18, 2014

Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology

Caroline B. Glick: The disappearance of US will

Megan Wallgren: 10 things I've learned from my teenagers

Lizette Borreli: Green Tea Boosts Brain Power, May Help Treat Dementia

John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain

The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious

April 14, 2014

Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time

Greg Crosby: Passing Over Religion

Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic

Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships

Cameron Huddleston: Freebies for Your Lawn and Garden

Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin

Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate

Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure

The Kosher Gourmet by Joshua E. London and Lou Marmon Don't dare pass over these Pesach picks for Manischewitz!

April 11, 2014

Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden

Caroline B. Glick: Forgetting freedom at Passover

Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Financial Tasks You Should Tackle Right Now

Sandra Block and Lisa Gerstner: How to Profit From Your Passion

Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer

Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You

The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington Whitefish Terrine: A French take on gefilte fish

April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review Oct. 10, 2007 / 28 Tishrei 5768

How to read the GOP polls

By Dick Morris & Eileen Mc Gann


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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | The polls for the primary and caucuses coming up at the very beginning of 2008 are all over the place. In the national sampling for the Republican nomination, for example, Scott Rasmussen shows Fred Thompson leading the pack with 25 percent of the vote, with Rudy Giuliani in second place at 23 percent. He has Romney in third at 13 percent and McCain in fourth at 10 percent. His sampling dates are Sept. 27-30.


But Gallup disagrees. They have Rudy in the lead at 30 percent with Thompson a distant second at 22 percent. They show McCain still in contention in third place with 18 percent of the vote. Gallup has Mitt Romney trailing badly with only 7 percent. Gallup's field dates were Sept. 14-16. Did the world change dramatically in the weeks between them? No way. The polls just disagree.


The difference is the screening process. It is very, very difficult to predict who will vote in Republican primaries such as those in New Hampshire and Michigan. It is even harder to tell who will participate in caucuses in Iowa. Yet the ability to predict who will vote and who won't is pivotal to an accurate reading of the likely outcome.


We won't know who is right and who is wrong until the votes are actually cast. And then it will be too late.


Rasmussen has a tighter screen than Gallup for Republican primary voters. When I asked Scott Rasmussen about the differences between his polls and those of Gallup, he answered, "I screen for likely primary voters." Gallup's screen is looser and lets in more voters.


So who is right? Neither or both, depending on how you look at it. Gallup is betting that voters have not yet focused on the primaries and have not decided whether they will vote or stay home. Rasmussen is hoping that they have decided already whether or not to vote and can accurately predict their behavior in January even though it is only October.


To make things more complicated, both Iowa and New Hampshire permit independents to vote in either party primary, making the process three-dimensional. Voters in the Republican primary not only have to decide whether to back Rudy or Thompson or McCain or Romney (or, in Iowa, Huckabee) but must also figure out if they would rather vote for one of the Republicans or go into the Democratic primary to vote against Hillary. Tough choice! Tougher prediction!


The conventional wisdom is with Gallup. Five months before a caucus, one's voter screen should be loose, since who is paying attention this early? By prematurely screening out voters who don't yet know who is running, the argument goes, one is blinding oneself to the real results, which will only be apparent once the poorly educated voters decide to participate.


But my money's on Rasmussen. Why?


Iowa is a caucus state, so a really tight screen is appropriate. If you are going to sit for three hours in a meeting in January to vote, you probably know in September that you are going to do it.


The race started nine months ago. This unusually early starting gate suggests that voters probably know a lot about the race very early on. With one-third of Americans getting their news from cable TV, all the likely voters are already players in the process and should know if they are going to vote or not.


With Hillary running, voters probably have a pretty good idea of what they are going to do. With Hillary polarizing voters as sharply as she does, voters probably already know in which primary they are planning to participate.


But anyone is entitled to his or her own opinion. And the truth is probably somewhere in between.

Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.


JWR contributor Dick Morris is author, most recently, of "Outrage: How Illegal Immigration, the United Nations, Congressional Ripoffs, Student Loan Overcharges, Tobacco Companies, Trade Protection, and Drug Companies Are Ripping Us Off . . . And". (Click HERE to purchase. Sales help fund JWR.) Comment by clicking here.



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