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Jewish World Review Oct. 24, 2006 / 2 Mar-Cheshvan, 5767 Which will go first, the current Iraqi government, or all hope of victory in Iraq? By Jack Kelly > http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Iraq's deputy prime minister was in London over the weekend, trying to head off a change in strategy by the U.S. and Britain that could undermine his government. "I'm obviously concerned about the debate in both the U.S. and Europe...because there is too much of a pessimistic tone...even I would say in certain circles a defeatist tone," Barham Salih told the BBC. As Mr. Salih met with senior British officials, British newspapers published stories likely to increase his anxiety. The U.S. is considering ending its heretofore open-ended support for the Iraqi government, the London Telegraph reported Monday. The U.S. would set "benchmarks" for the government to meet, and impose penalties if it doesn't. The U.S. is secretly negotiating an amnesty with Sunni insurgents, including those who have killed American troops, the London Times reported yesterday. It is understandable why the U.S. and Britain are losing patience with the hapless government of Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki. As of this writing, 87 American service members have been killed in Iraq in October, making this — with more than a week still to go — the bloodiest month of the year for U.S. troops. Nearly 100 Iraqis have died every day this month. The death toll has been high and the chaos great chiefly because Mr. Maliki has been unwilling, or unable, to crack down on Shia militias, chiefly that of the Iranian-backed radical Moqtada al Sadr. Mr. Maliki insisted Oct. 19 that the Americans release a key Sadr aide, Sheikh Mazen al Saedi, who'd been arrested two days before for involvement with death squads. Sadr's Mahdi Army attacked Iraqi police stations in the southern city of Amarah Oct. 20, and in Suwayra, 30 miles south of Baghdad, a day later. "The situation in Iraq today resembles that of the fall of 2004, when Sadr conducted his second uprising in Najaf just as al Qaida in Iraq was in control of Fallujah," wrote Web logger Bill Roggio. "It is believe an informal alliance existed between Sadr and al Qaida as each struck at American and the nascent Iraqi government forces. Now, Sadr's forces are probing Iraqi police and army units in southern Shiite regions, as al Qaida in Iraq is vying for control of Ramadi and Baghdad is the focal point of sectarian violence." Mr. Maliki is reluctant to move against al Sadr because he depends upon the 28 votes in the 275-member Iraqi parliament al Sadr controls to maintain his tenuous hold on power. But as sectarian violence sparked mostly by the Mahdi army increases, Mr. Maliki's hold on power has become more tenuous. Baghdad, London and Washington are rife with rumors he soon could be overthrown by a nationalist general, or forced to resign in favor of an emergency "government of national salvation." A Sunni member of parliament traveled to Arab capitals last week to seek support for replacing the Maliki government with a five man junta, reported Marie Colvin in the London Sunday Times. No coup could occur without (at least) the tacit support of the U.S. military, and that is unlikely to happen. But American officials would be ecstatic if Mr. Maliki were forced out in favor of a prime minister willing to confront al Sadr. The key to a "democratic" solution is a breakup of the United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of Shia religious parties which together control 47 percent of the seats in the Iraqi parliament. The leading bloc in the UIA is the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), headed by Abdul Aziz Hakim, a bitter enemy of al Sadr. If SCIRI and some of smaller parties in the UIA could be pried away, a national unity government could have solid majority support. Dr. Salah al Mutlak, the Sunni politician who was seeking support for a coup last week, heads the fifth largest party in parliament. He told Ms. Colvin he had the support of four other parties, including Fadila, a Shiite party based in Basra which is a member of the UIA. President Bush continues to show patience with and to offer rhetorical support for Prime Minister Maliki, but that's likely to change after the election. "Maliki has got until Christmas, in my judgment," retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey said on MSNBC's "Hardball" program Friday. Gen. McCaffrey, a frequent critic of U.S. policy in Iraq, but a supporter of the mission there, said U.S. troops will be required to break the Mahdi army. I think Christmas is too long to wait. If Maliki won't move against al Sadr, then the U.S. should move against Maliki, hard and fast. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. Comment by clicking here. Jack Kelly Archives © 2006, Jack Kelly

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