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Jewish World Review Sept. 15, 2010 7 Tishrei, 5771 2010 Is ‘Gone,” Says Big-Time Dem By Roger Simon
In my experience, the big-time Democrat has hardly ever been wrong. He does not dislike Obama. On the contrary, like most big-time Democrats, he worked hard for his election in 2008 and would much rather see Democrats hold on to Congress this Nov. 2 than lose.
He just doesn't think it's going to happen. A few months ago, he told me the Democrats could win the House in a squeaker and also retain the Senate. We talked again a few days ago, and things had changed.
"There is going to be a total wipeout, and it is totally going to be in Obama's lap," he said. "He should drop plans for Congress and plan for Nov. 3 and what he does next."
The big-time Democrat appreciates the unfairness of this. We always go around saying "all politics is local," until it comes to the midterm elections, when politics becomes a national referendum on the sitting president.
David Plouffe, Barack Obama's campaign manager in 2008, said on "Meet the Press With David Gregory" on Sept. 5 that "our House candidates are running great localized campaigns, really focusing on turnout and making that a choice between two individuals."
In other words, the Democrats can do great as long as the election is not about Barack Obama.
Good luck with that. Obama was not a hyper-partisan figure when he ran for president, but now, as the de facto head of his party, he must travel across the country beating the drum for every Democrat -- or at least those who will have him. And this election is largely about Obama and his successes and failures in his first two years in office.
Which is the problem. "You know the president is in trouble when people in the White House go around saying, 'If the public only knew this guy!'" the Democrat said. "Obama has been in the public eye for three years, and people are saying they don't know him? Whose fault is that? The public's?"
Others say all this is baloney, the same kind of panic the Obama campaign experienced and overcame in the primaries and general election of 2008.
Joel Benenson, Obama's chief pollster, believes the upcoming election is far from over and will be decided in September and October. "I don't believe the House is gone, and I don't believe Senate is gone," Benenson told me. "This is going to be a tough-fought campaign. I've seen more polls district-by-district than most people, and the most likely scenario is a narrow margin. Either we win narrowly, or they win narrowly. I still believe we will win narrowly."
How the White House spins that -- and how much of that spin the media buy into -- is going to be important.
"It is going to be hard for the Republicans to claim a massive revival of their party if they win only one house," a senior member of Team Obama told me. "And if we win the House by only one seat, the media will call it a Democratic victory."
And how is the president feeling about all this these days? I asked.
"I think he gets frustrated at how hard it has been to communicate his successes," he said. "Big or small, nothing is penetrating."
Why? Because after years of hyper-partisanship on Capitol Hill, the public has become deeply cynical about politics. To many people, politics is a sad and wretched game. Incumbents care only about hanging onto their jobs and not solving problems. So nothing gets done, nothing gets better, and why should the public trust anyone?
When I interviewed President Obama in the Oval Office on June 11, he said he was going to go around the country and remind voters that Democrats "didn't create this mess."
"I mean they've got an incredible record to run on, and I'm very proud of what they've done," he said. "And when you contrast that with what the previous Republican-controlled Congress had done, that's a pretty favorable comparison to make for Democrats."
Inevitably, how the Democrats do in 2010 will be seen as a report card on you, I said.
"Yes, (but) I'm less concerned about the report card on me; I'm more concerned about really fine public servants who've been in the line of fire and done really good work," he said. "I want to see if we can get them back here."
And if he can't get them back to Washington, how long does he get to stay?
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