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Jewish World Review Sept. 20, 2010 / 12 Tishrei, 5771 The GOP earthquake By Jack Kelly
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
An explosive primary season was capped by a nuclear bomb: the upset victory of Christine O'Donnell over Delaware political fixture Rep. Mike Castle in the GOP Senate primary.
Ms. O'Donnell's 53 percent to 47 percent win was the greatest tea party triumph over the GOP establishment. But conservative insurgents also did surprisingly well elsewhere. In New York's gubernatorial primary, Carl Paladino clobbered the establishment favorite, former Rep. Rick Lazio. In New Hampshire, Ovide Lamontagne nearly upset the long-time favorite (and slightly less conservative) Kelly Ayotte in the Senate race.
But for me, the returns with the greatest import for November came in Wisconsin. That front runners Scott Walker and Ron Johnson easily won the GOP gubernatorial and senatorial nods is not surprising. What is surprising is that so many more people voted in the Republican gubernatorial primary (614,321) than in the Democratic primary (233,119).
More votes were cast for Democrats than for Republicans in the seven primaries Tuesday (the others were in Maryland, Massachussetts and Rhode Island). But overall, Republicans finished the primary season with upwards of three million votes more than Democrats received.
The last time Republicans received more primary votes than Democrats did was in 1930. In both 1994 (a terrific year for Republicans) and 1946 (a really terrific year) Democrats won more primary votes than Republicans did. You don't need to be a weatherman to see which way the wind is blowing.
Voting in primaries is an imperfect measure of voter enthusiasm, but it's better than any other, which is why I think the tight races heading into November tilt more toward Republicans than polls indicate.
Consider Wisconsin's 7th district, long held by retiring Rep. David Obey, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. Most experts rate it a tossup. But in the 7th, Republicans won 61,961 primary votes to 33,529 for Democrats.
The last Republican to carry Wisconsin in a presidential race was Ronald Reagan in 1984. Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, who now narrowly trails Mr. Johnson in polls, won re-election in 2004 with 56 percent of the vote. If Democrats are in trouble in Wisconsin, where are they strong?
One place they're stronger after Tuesday is Delaware, where Ms. O'Donnell's triumph converts what had been a likely Republican pickup into an all-but-certain Democratic retention. Public Policy Polling released a morning-after poll showing Democrat Chris Coons ahead, 50-34.
Ms. O'Donnell's opponent in the GOP primary, Mr. Castle, had a 52 percent rating from the American Conservative Union. That is higher than the ACU rating of 44 for Idaho Democrat Walter Minnick, who the Tea Party Express endorsed even as it provided Ms. O'Donnell with much of her financial backing. But Delaware Republicans were unwilling to accept half a loaf this year.
Democrats and most journalists are describing Ms. O'Donnell's victory as a sign of Republican dissension that could cost the GOP control of the Senate. But Newsweek's Howard Fineman left the Beltway bubble for a day and now isn't so sure:
"What I heard at a little polling place in Newark [Del.] told me, even before the day's election results were in, exactly what to expect in November," Mr. Fineman wrote. "An earthquake. … Almost every Republican voter I talked to wanted to vote for O'Donnell. I didn't find a single Castle voter who said he or she would vote for Democrat Chris Coons if O'Donnell won."
Democratic hopes for Republican dissension are wishful thinking, Mr. Fineman said, because people are angry at the president's agenda. "If Obama can't do better, he may soon be dealing with Sen. O'Donnell from Delaware," he concluded.
I doubt that. But if control of the Senate depended on the whims of Mr. Castle -- as in 2001 they did on the whims of "Jumping Jim" Jeffords of Vermont -- that wouldn't be good for Republicans or conservatives.
It's probable that by stiffening the spines of moderate Republicans (if only out of fright), Ms. O'Donnell's primary victory will produce a more conservative Senate than Mr. Castle could have by winning in November.
The tea party has brought new energy and (excepting Ms. O'Donnell) better candidates to the GOP. In response, the Democratic National Committee has redesigned its logo. It consists of a D inside what looks like a bullseye. Given the mood of the electorate this year, that's appropriate.
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JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration.
© 2009, Jack Kelly |
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