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Jewish World Review Sept. 5, 2006 / 12 Elul, 5766 Red-state Republicans and blue-faced liberals are starting to agree: Green is the way By Niall Ferguson http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | It has been the political equivalent of an explosion in a dye works. From Sacramento to Tokyo, red Republicans and true-blue Tories are turning green. Last week, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger agreed to a plan aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions in California by a quarter within the next 15 years. On Thursday, British Conservative George Osborne told an audience in Japan that a future Tory government would consider increasing the share of revenue coming from environmental taxes. Hang on — aren't those Al Gore's lines? Aren't conservatives supposed to be in favor of gas-guzzling SUVs and drilling for oil in national parks? The idea that there is something fundamentally unconservative about protecting the environment is, of course, a canard. At the very core of British conservatism since the time of Benjamin Disraeli has been a romantic reverence for the land and a desire to mitigate the damage done by industrialization. It was Marx and Engels who sneered at "the idiocy of rural life." It was Lenin and Stalin whose mania for smoke-belching steelworks turned huge tracts of Russia into toxic wastelands. Nor have conservatives in Britain or America ever prospered for long when they have been seen to represent primarily the interests of big business, a mistake the Republicans made in the 1920s and are in danger of repeating under President Bush. Speaking to reporters in June, Bush reiterated his unorthodox views on the causes of global warming. "There's a debate," he said, "over whether it's man-made or naturally caused." There may be such a debate within the Bush family but not among scientists, the overwhelming majority of whom now believe — as my Harvard colleague John Holdren told the BBC last week — that we are already "experiencing dangerous human disruption of the global climate, and we're going to experience more." If the current rate of global warming continues, according to Holdren, sea levels could rise by as much as 13 feet this century. That's enough to put most of southern Florida under water. Even if the science turns out, for some as-yet-unknown reason, to have been wrong, action will still have been warranted on purely prudential grounds. The question is simply: What form of action? Merely setting targets is not a credible option. Tony Blair tried this and has abjectly failed. By 2010, he declared, Britain would have cut carbon-dioxide emissions by 20%. Embarrassingly, emissions have gone up every year since 2002. The more fashionable solution is emissions trading. The theory is that government sets emission levels and issues tradable allowances. To achieve "carbon neutrality," Company A can offset an excess emission of CO2 by paying Company B not to emit an equivalent amount. This has the appeal of creating a market with built-in incentives to find the cheapest methods of reducing emissions. But when put into practice, the "cap-and-trade" model can have perverse results. The European Union Emission Trading Scheme, set up for big polluters such as power generators, ran into trouble this year because — to name just one of a number of glitches — quotas were issued for more carbon than was actually produced, causing the price of allowances to collapse. I must say I prefer the simpler options of either taxing or fining polluters. Why? Because these have been tried before and have worked. Ardent Greens sometimes forget that the problem of pollution is nothing new. The first clean air laws in the United States and Britain date to the 1950s. The principle of these and subsequent laws has been straightforward: to prohibit the most toxic pollutants and to set limits on less harmful but still undesirable emissions. True, emissions of sulfur dioxide would have fallen anyway as households relied less on coal for heating and cooking. But there is no question that the legislation speeded the transition to cleaner fuels — and a less foggy London. Needless to say, no national policy will be sufficient to halt global warming, much less a policy introduced by a single American state. Even the Kyoto Protocol, had the United States ratified it, would not have done the job because it does not bind the booming economies of Asia, which are producing more greenhouse gases with every passing year. That, however, is not an argument for simply giving up and bidding farewell to Florida. Conservatives do not expect problems to be solved by some kind of world government; on the contrary, they prefer local solutions to global solutions. They also know that enlightened self-interest, not utopian fantasy, is the best basis for policy. And that is precisely why they may prove to be more effective environmentalists than the first generation of left-wing Greens, whose idealism too often slid over the edge into extremism. Make no mistake: The current political transformation of red and blue into Green is a response to a political as well as meteorological climate change. Opinion polls show that Britons and Americans are belatedly waking up to the risks of global warming. They have heard the speeches. Now they want to see some action. It may not be enough to save the planet. But this political climate change could yet save conservatism. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. BUY THE BOOKS Click HERE to purchase it at a discount. (Sales help fund JWR.). Click HERE to purchase it at a discount. (Sales help fund JWR.). Niall Ferguson is a professor of history at Harvard University. He is the author of "Empire" (Basic Books, 2003) and "Colossus" (Penguin, 2004). Comment by clicking here. 08/29/06: What if the London Bombers Succeeded? 08/15/06: Testing the Limits of the U.N.: Who seriously expects Kofi Annan to stop Al Qaeda terror attacks? 08/08/06: The coming tsunami of trash 07/18/06: Forget the '60s and ‘Make Love, Not War.’ Today's world is facing a Summer of Rage 07/11/06: When will China pull the plug on North Korea? 06/20/06: Hedge funds vs. central bankers: Will inflation, deflation or recession win in the coming months? 06/13/06: Britain's economy is just like America's — minus the entrepreneurs and growth 06/06/06: The X-Men have taken over Washington 05/30/06: Quit protesting, profs! 05/23/06: World markets' wild ride: Economic volatility is back with a vengeance 05/16/06: The Cold Wars are coming 05/09/06: Many commentators are missing dangerous political shift 05/02/06: Put some sugar in your tank 04/25/06: Hu and the dog that didn't bark 04/18/06: Should Americans be less optimistic? 04/11/06: Globalization's second death? 04/04/06: So many ‘special’ friends 03/28/06: Let's get it right about what has gone wrong 03/21/06: Congress is trying to give the world a globotomy 03/14/06: Lame ducks can still bite back 03/07/06: A 19th Century critique of a 21st Century president 02/28/06: The crash of civilizations 02/21/06: Not the president, but close 02/14/06: Want historic trouble? Look south 02/07/06: Greenspan advising Britain? It's housing bubbles, deficits and potential meltdowns all over again 01/31/06: Missing the Cold War 01/24/06: It's a sick, Thick World 01/17/06: Tomorrow's world war today 01/03/06: Scotland, it's over, but keep the accents 12/20/05: History, democracy and Iraq 12/20/05: History, democracy and Iraq 11/22/05: Ghost of Napoleon haunts Tony Blair 11/22/05: Can it happen in Britain too? 11/15/05: Red plus blue equals purple 11/10/05: The fires of disintegration 11/01/05: Triumph of an über-wonk © 2006, Los Angeles Times Distributed by Los Angeles Times Syndicate

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