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Jewish World Review Sept. 1, 2005 / 27 Av, 5765 Breaking Iraq apart will splinter the region By Jack Kelly > http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Iraq has a proposed new constitution, which will go before Iraqi voters for approval in a referendum Oct. 15th. The outlook is cloudy. Most of the Sunni Arabs on the committee which drafted the constitution wouldn't sign it, for fear they won't get what they imagine to be their fair share of Iraq's oil revenues. Iraq's proven oil fields are in the north, where the Kurds are, and in the south, where the Shia Arabs are. The Sunni Arabs are concentrated in the west central portion of the country. So Sunnis suspect the constitution's provisions for federalism will make it possible for the Kurds and the Shia to abscond with the oil. Since the Shia and the Kurds together comprise more than 80 percent of the electorate, there is little doubt the proposed constitution can attract majority support. But a provision put into the law that governs the referendum at the insistence of the Kurds could bite them. That provision says that if two thirds or more of the voters in any three provinces reject the constitution, it is null and void. The Kurds dominate the three northernmost provinces, so this would permit them to veto any provision they did not like. But there are also three provinces in which Sunnis are a majority. If the constitution is rejected, the Kurds may press for formal secession. This will be described as a catastrophe by two sets of people. The first are those who regard — or at least want you to regard — any development in Iraq as bad so long as President Bush figures to get some credit for anything good. The second, comprised chiefly of our diplomats, are those who think any change in any border is bad. It is fascinating to me how the State Department is always for the status quo, no matter what the status quo is, and no matter how bitterly State opposed the status quo before it became the status quo. As Ralph Peters points out in his superb book, "New Glory," our commitment to intact borders is so great that "a Republican secretary of state tried to persuade the splintering Soviet Union to remain whole — after we had finally cracked it apart." BUY THE BOOK Does this book sound intriguing? Click HERE to purchase it at a discount. (Sales help fund JWR.). This is ridiculous. We face monstrous problems today because the boundaries of most countries in Africa and the Middle East were drawn by European colonialists for their convenience, without regard for the wishes of the people who lived there. Tribes were divided by artificial borders. Bitter enemies were thrust together in the same "country." Iraq is an example. It was cobbled together from three disparate elements of the Ottoman empire after World War I. I would like to see Iraq stay together in a democratic federal union, providing for the rest of the Arab world an example of a peaceful, prosperous multi-ethnic society. And I'd just as soon we not have to put up with the headaches a breakup of Iraq would entail. But what for us would be a mild headache figures to be a migraine for our enemies, says Jack Wheeler. Wheeler is a real-life Indiana Jones. He's parachuted onto both the north and south poles, led expeditions up the Amazon. He spent much of the 1980s with anticommunist resistance movements in Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Angola and Mozambique. And — after Ralph Peters — Jack is the best "outside the box" thinker I know. Fewer than half the people in Iran are ethnically Persian, Wheeler notes. There are more Kurds in Iran on the border with Iraqi Kurdistan than there are in Iraqi Kurdistan itself. In the northwest there are eight million Azeris who would rather be part of neighboring Azerbaijan. There are three million Turkmen in the northeast who would rather be part of Turkmenistan. In the southeast, there are three million Baluchis who would rather be part of the Pakistani province of Baluchistan. The mullahs in Tehran are waging war to break Iraq apart, but this is suicidally stupid, Wheeler says, because Iraq breaking apart will lead inevitably to Iran breaking apart. "So if the mullahs are crazy enough to crank up the Persian ratchet by going after Shia Iraq, George Bush may be happy to crank it all the way until Iran shatters," he said. Wheeler also explains why partition of Iraq spells curtains for Syria and Saudi Arabia. But you'll have to read about this in his excellent newsletter, "To the Point." I've run out of space. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. Comment by clicking here. Jack Kelly Archives © 2005, Jack Kelly

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