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Jewish World Review August 25, 2009 / 5 Elul 5769 Weigh risks of being overly conservative with investments By Gail Marks Jarvis http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | (MCT) Question: I am a conservative investor and have $100,000 that I will not need for at least 10 years. It is invested in a CD earning 2.1 percent. Is this the right approach, or should I consider corporate bonds? Answer: "The question is: Are you a really a conservative investor, and should you be?" said Newport Beach, Calif., financial planner Laura Tarbox. After serious losses in the stock market the last couple of years, Tarbox said, "everyone thinks they are more conservative than they were before, but they have to think about the risks of being overly conservative." If "conservative" means you emotionally can't stand the chance of losing any money, stay invested in CDs and U.S. Treasury bonds. But, though the 2.1 percent on your CD won't do much to help build your nest egg, you have to accept it if you must be 100 percent safe. Virtually, any other investment — including corporate bonds — are not completely safe. If you had said you needed your money within five years, I would have said to stick with CDs or individual U.S. Treasury bonds. There's a rule of thumb that you don't take chances with money you will need within five years, ruling out stocks and corporate bonds for short-term investors. But with 10 years, you can take a few more risks. And when you contemplate risks, think about all of them. Many people do not think about the risks they take when they insist on ultrasafe investments. Let's say the $100,000 is all you have saved for retirement, and you will have to start living on it when you retire in 10 years. If your $100,000 stays in a CD earning 2.1 percent, you will have about $120,600. The sum will be less after paying taxes on the interest each year, but let's assume that you keep all the money and that the rate has held at 2.1 percent. Another rule of thumb holds that you should not remove more than 4 percent of your savings in the first year of retirement to avoid running out of money down the road. That rule also assumes that each year you increase the amount you take out just a little to cover inflation. So, your 4 percent withdrawal from your $120,600 would be $4,822 that first year. If you would have $20,000 in Social Security, you would have $24,822 to live on. But let's say you will need about $26,200 a year. Then, if you could take on a little more risk — maybe combining CDs, Treasuries, corporate bonds rated A or above and a stock market index mutual fund — and average 5 percent on that diversified portfolio, your $100,000 could grow to about $155,132, with $6,205 withdrawn the first year. Add Social Security, and you'd have your $26,200. Of course, there are no guarantees. A 5 percent return is not certain. Historically, long-term U.S. Treasury bonds have provided a 5.5 percent average annual return, but now the yield is below 4 percent and if interest rates fall, today's Treasuries could lose value. Similarly, corporate bonds have averaged about a 5.9 percent return, but they fluctuate with interest rates, too, and can end up as a loser in bankruptcy. Finally, you are aware of the shocks that can rock the stock market, even though they have averaged a 9.6 percent return if you track back before the Depression. Certified financial planners might help you determine what risks you are willing to accept with a questionnaire and choose stocks and bonds based on your gut and needs. You can try this yourself on Charles Schwab's Web site; go to schwab.com and search for "investor profile questionnaire." For a person willing to take on a moderate level of risk, 50 percent stocks and 50 percent bonds might be appropriate. The significant short-term risks in stocks decline with time. If, for example, you had invested your money all in stocks in 2007 before the market crashed, you would have lost about 37 percent by the end of this June. But with a 50/50 stock/bond split, you would have cut your loss to 13 percent, according to Ibbotson Associates. With a longer time frame, your results would have been better and your risks reduced. If, for example, you invested your money in stocks on Jan. 1, 1999, you would have gone through two bear markets, and lost about 10 percent. But if you had chosen a the 50/50 split, you would have gained about 37 percent. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. Gail Marks Jarvis is a personal finance columnist for the Chicago Tribune and author of "Saving for Retirement without Living Like a Pauper or Winning the Lottery." Comment by clicking here. Previously: 07/06/09: Fear can force better investment planning 06/10/09: Best stock buys passed quickly, even for pros 05/12/09: On Wall Street, signs plant a seed of hope 04/08/09: Analysts debate the future of the rally 03/19/09: Gold unlikely to pan out as cure-all 02/29/09: Housing credit could provide sizable boost 02/19/09: Rebalancing being put in different light 02/04/09: Diversification doesn't always offer insulation 01/27/09: Taking steps can help regain some control 01/20/09: How to save for college during a recession 01/12/09: Bonds still risky option to stocks 12/24/08: Some predict mid-2009 for return to investing joy 12/09/08: A small dose of short funds may be useful 11/11/08: Mutual funds can get caught in downward spiral 10/27/08: Investors can bounce back from even the worst of times 10/20/08: Want to sell? Look at 401(k), but don't leap 10/16/08: Want to be like Buffett? There are ways 09/29/08: Money protection only goes so far, so know the risks 08/26/08: Retail stocks may not be best fit for investors 08/20/08: Rear-view mirror investing can be dangerous to a portfolio 07/01/08: What do we do? My daughter didn't get a scholarship 02/25/08: Before abandoning your mutual fund 02/14/08: Dirty little secret of some funds may be haunting 01/29/08: Sorting out the stock market 01/03/08: One word for 2008 crystal-ball gazers: Caution 12/11/07: ‘Buy and hold’ isn't necessarily tried and true 11/26/07: Translating the falling dollar's implications for investors 11/13/07: Gradual retirement may not be key to happiness 11/05/07: Rate cut won't offer immunity to investors 10/29/07: Employers set to help workers save in 401(k) accounts 10/22/07: Playing bounce may be costly to stock investors 10/10/07: Investors find boring often can be fruitful 10/01/07: Make up lost time with swift, smart action 09/24/07: Balance is key for investing by retirees 09/18/07: Homeowners who wait see options fade 09/04/07: Easy matter to rate fund's performance 08/27/07: Mortgage mess could be good for savers 08/17/07: Small stocks are coming with large caveats © 2007, Chicago Tribune Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services

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