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Jewish World Review August 23, 2005 /18 Av, 5765 Sometimes polls just don't matter By Peter A. Brown
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
Polls can sometimes influence the government and help politicians understand where the country is heading.
Because we are between elections and in a period of economic change, however, this is not one of those times.
In fact, President Bush's lame-duck status combined with the disconnection between fact and fiction on the economy make such surveys almost worthless for now.
Their only value is to give journalists material for discussion and Democrats something on which to hang their hopes for the future — although how much Bush's popularity or lack of it will affect the next elections is far from clear.
Consider:
Bush has anemic poll ratings, yet he has shown a continued ability to get what he wants from Congress on most, although not all, initiatives.
Most Americans believe the economy is in or heading for the toilet, but that their own situation is pretty good. That's why polls on consumer sentiment and approval of the economy are almost meaningless as predictors of economic behavior.
The polls are correct that the country remains split on Bush's presidency, and his negative ratings are creeping up, especially about the war in Iraq.
Unlike his predecessor Bill Clinton, however, who was almost as addicted to poll numbers as cheeseburgers, Bush doesn't care what people think.
Call it self-confidence or arrogance — depending on one's point of view.
Bush has a strong internal compass. He believes that he is doing the right thing and knows he doesn't ever have to face the voters again.
Polls don't decide what becomes law; Congress does. Its members can read surveys, too, but Bush is still getting his way.
What is unusual is that lame-duck presidents in their second term often become more timid as their time grows short, yet Bush actually has become more assertive and successful in the legislative arena.
He probably won't get his Social Security overhaul, though his boldness in putting the political hot potato front and center belies his supposed lack of political capital.
Yet on a host of other matters — energy policy, class-action lawsuit limits, bankruptcy reform and a trade deal with Central America — he has gotten his way on Capitol Hill. His victories are narrow, but whether by a mite or a mile, the resulting laws are just as valid.
Moreover, the president's Supreme Court nominee, John Roberts, seems headed for confirmation, as does an effort to protect gun makers from lawsuits and Bush's effort to allow drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Nor is Bush ducking controversy. He plans to propose serious changes in the tax system after a commission he appointed makes recommendations.
That's not chopped liver for a president whom more Americans view negatively than positively, according to many polls. Many predecessors with his poll numbers would have pulled in their horns long ago.
Both Bush's economic job approval and Americans' views of the economy are just as meaningless.
Virtually every economic statistic, except the price of oil, is cause for optimism.
Unemployment, inflation and interest rates are near record lows. The much-talked about budget deficit is falling and, on a percentage-of-gross-domestic-product basis, the United States is better off than most industrialized nations.
Moreover, polls of consumer sentiment, which historically have been harbingers of future economic activity that moved the stock market, have become less reliable predictors.
These days, those trying to make a buck figuring out the economy's future are taking a page from the rebellious children who watch what their parents (in this case, consumers) do, not what they say.
Weekly polls taken by ABC News/Washington Post, for example, show about 20 percent more Americans think their personal finances are good or excellent than rate the nation's economy that way.
That's why we see the disconnect between the economic statistics and the polling numbers. People's views about the economy are based on what they hear, mostly through the news media, but also from word of mouth.
However, they know about their own lives, and their confidence in their own situation is why they are spending and keeping the economy strong.
Polls are fun to read, and they are sometimes useful tools.
This is just not one of those times.
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Peter A. Brown is an editorial page columnist for the Orlando Sentinel. Comment by clicking here. © 2005, Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services |
Mitch Albom | |||||||||||
