It's practically an article of faith that, just as investors need to have both large- and small-company stocks in their portfolios, they must own both domestic and foreign shares. A widely cited paper by economists
Look at the recent past. Over the past five years through
Go back further. Vanguard Total International Stock (symbol VGTSX) is an index mutual fund with holdings in about 5,000 foreign stocks, allocated among
Higher risk usually means higher reward, but that hasn't been the case with foreign stocks. Their paltry profits have been produced with what Vanguard's own measures conclude is the highest "risk potential."
Perhaps the past two decades (not to mention the past five years) have been an anomaly. I'm a contrarian kind of guy--maybe foreign stocks will bounce back in the decades ahead. But the numbers have been so awful that ignoring them would simply be foolish.
Home-field advantages. What the poor returns of foreign stocks indicate is that overseas companies themselves simply don't perform as well as U.S. concerns. The U.S. accounts for just 5% of the world's population and 16% of the world's total economic output (based on purchasing-power parity, or what a currency can actually buy). But when it comes to profitability, size and management skill, American companies rule the world.
For example, in technology, the most dynamic global sector, eight of the world's nine largest companies--based on a
Candidates seeking their parties' presidential nominations have stressed the supposed decline of American manufacturing. Yes,
There are also a couple of potential catalysts that could drive up domestic stocks. The U.S. has the highest corporate tax rates in the developed world, plus a system that taxes profits outside the country. My guess is that corporate tax reform will be on the agenda no matter who wins the presidential election, and U.S. businesses, which are already highly competitive because of substantial capital investment and good management, will do even better. Another possible change for the better: U.S. companies have thrived over the past five years despite a rising dollar for most of that period, which makes our goods more expensive to foreigners. The dollar has been falling steadily since November. Imagine if that trend continues for an extended period.
Meanwhile, European and Japanese companies are especially burdened by a deeply entrenched regulatory culture, and the Chinese haven't fully liberated their firms from the
The main risk to U.S. stocks' edge over foreign stocks is that we will reject new trade deals. Killing the
Overrated benefit. One reason advocates say to invest in foreign stocks is their lack of correlation to U.S. stocks. Stocks that are uncorrelated tend to move up and down independently of one another. By building a portfolio of uncorrelated assets, you get a smoother ride. For instance, if U.S. stocks take a big dive one year, foreign stocks may mitigate the damage by not losing as much, or even gaining. But the correlation between U.S. and foreign stocks is actually pretty tight compared with the correlation between U.S. stocks and other assets, such as commodities and Treasury bonds. Foreign stocks fared just as poorly as U.S. stocks during the sharp 2008 downturn.
Another reason to choose foreign stocks is that U.S.-based companies don't reflect the entire global economy, and by investing internationally your portfolio tracks the world. But many U.S. companies already derive most of their revenues abroad. In fact, if you want your shares to reflect the entire planet, you can build a powerful 10-stock global portfolio with just U.S.-based companies. Try these:
A study two years ago by the
I'm not sure this prejudice is so bad. In light of actual results over the past few decades and the prospects for the years ahead, maintaining a bias in your portfolio toward U.S. stocks looks like an excellent strategy.
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James K. Glassman, a contributing columnist at Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine, is, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author, most recently, of Safety Net: The Strategy of De-Risking Your Investments in a Time of Turbulence. He owns none of the stocks mentioned.