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Jewish World Review June 14, 2006 / 18 Sivan, 5766 One death could bring a stable Iraq, even as opportunity and room to shape War's outcome is diminishing By Robert Robb
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
After being justifiably criticized for excessively rosy assessments of
developments in Iraq, the Bush administration underplayed the significance
of the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
Things will still be tough in Iraq, everyone was careful to say. The
insurgency will continue.
And that's undoubtedly true. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that
Zarqawi's death will be a milestone in bringing a degree of stability to
Iraq, and mark the beginning of the end of the U.S. involvement there
regardless of whether it actually does.
The argument for Zarqawi's death having a minimal effect is the nature of
the insurgency. Foreign terrorists, whom Zarqawi led, are a fraction of it.
Most estimates put the active insurgency forces at about 20,000. Foreign
terrorists are thought to be, at most, about a tenth of that number. The
bulk consists of Iraqi Sunnis with various motivations.
Nevertheless, the foreign terrorists are thought to be primarily
responsible for the more heinous acts of terror, including the suicide
bombings. And Zarqawi was a particularly toxic force in the Iraqi
situation.
Zarqawi felt that the majority Shia were a more important enemy in Iraq
than the United States. In a letter to al-Qaida's leadership before
pledging loyalty to it in 2004, he wrote: "The danger from the Shia is
greater and their damage is worse and more destructive to the Islamic
nation than the Americans."
Attacking the Shia, not Americans, was his primary strategy. He is thought
to be responsible for the bombing of the Shiite mosque that triggered the
escalation of sectarian violence and reprisals in Iraq.
Al-Qaida's leadership appears to have disagreed with this strategy. A
letter intercepted last fall from the terror outfit's second-in-command,
Ayman al-Zawahiri, certainly indicated as much.
Zarqawi's brutality and attacks on Shiite civilians and worshipers were
costing the insurgency the popular support needed to establish an Islamic
caliphate in Iraq, Zawahiri worried.
While the insurgency will continue, the removal of the most dedicated,
brutal and cruel agent and promoter of civilian sectarian violence and
conflict will make a difference. It improves the chances, perhaps
dramatically, of stability coming to Iraq.
The key to true stability in Iraq is acceptance by the Sunnis of a minority
role and status in a Shia-majority led Iraq.
In the final analysis, that is the best outcome the Sunnis can hope for.
Without Saddam's monopoly on force, a Sunni restoration is not going to
happen. The real options for the Sunnis are an independent status without
oil revenues, or a minority status (albeit with substantial autonomy) with
some share of oil revenues.
The United States, however, is running out of room and opportunity to shape
the outcome in Iraq. Unfortunately, President Bush is among those unwilling
to see or acknowledge this.
The U.S. military is clearly ready for a reduced role in Iraq. American
troops are increasingly taking a backup role in security operations and
commanders consistently talk about the possibility of reducing the number
of troops in Iraq before the end of the year.
At his Iraq war strategy retreat, however, Bush convened a panel of outside
experts who advocate an increased direct role for U.S. forces in Iraqi
security operations. He then flew to Iraq to tell the new prime minister
that the United States' keeps it word, clearly an indication of a
willingness to keep U.S. forces engaged, as the president often puts it,
for as long as it takes.
That's not necessarily the reassurance that is most important in Iraq.
There is a concern among Iraqis that the United States will pull out before
security is assured. There is also, however, a concern that the United
States will never leave.
According to a poll in January, 80 percent of the Iraqi people believe that
the United States wants a permanent military presence in Iraq. Only 23
percent, and just 5 percent of Sunnis, believe that the United States would
leave Iraq even if asked to do so by the Iraqi government.
U.S. domestic politics will probably settle the issue. There is simply no
patience for the unlimited commitment Bush wants to make to the Iraqi
enterprise. The death of Zarqawi will increase the desire by the American
people to see the beginning of the end.
The bet here is that the combination of domestic politics in the United
States and in Iraq, and the military's clear preference, will result in an
announcement of U.S. troop reductions before the November American
election.
And if it doesn't, that the American people will choose a Congress that
will force that decision on Bush.
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JWR contributor Robert Robb is a columnist for The Arizona Republic. Comment by clicking here.
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Mitch Albom | |||||||||
