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Jewish World Review June 16, 2005 / 9 Sivan, 5765 What's rattling Virginia? Fault lines in the GOP By Carl P. Leubsdorf
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
OAK HILL, Va. — In this month's Virginia Republican primaries, the
issue is taxes. And the vote could be a preview of coming
attractions in the national GOP.
So while youthful legislative hopeful Chris Craddock stressed his
conservative credentials on issues like abortion and gay marriage at
a recent fund-raiser in this northern Virginia suburb, he made clear
that taxes is "the main issue that got us into the race."
The 26-year-old director of student ministries at a local church is
one of six conservative challengers to GOP lawmakers who broke with
the House of Delegates' Republican leaders and voted to raise sales
and cigarette taxes last year. It was the key vote that led to
passage of Democratic Gov. Mark Warner's fiscal package.
His opponent, Gary Reese, 60, is ending his first term in the
legislature.
Though their votes attracted loud criticism from leaders of
conservative groups, 11 of the 17 GOP renegades escaped primary
foes. But the outcome of the challenges to the other six lawmakers
will show the extent to which opposition to tax increases remains a
potent issue in the party where it has long been a defining issue.
"Virginia is going to be a testing ground," said Michael Farris, a
champion of conservative causes in Virginia who spoke at the
Craddock fund-raiser. "If one or more of these incumbents fall, it
will be a signal that the grass roots of the Republican Party still
want people who stick to their principles."
Reese agreed. "If a number of us lose, that message will be written
and might well have some detrimental effects nationally," he said.
But he said he had no regrets. "If that vote had gone the other way,
the government would have been closed down and Virginia would have
lost its Triple-A bond rating," he said, adding quickly that he also
voted against a larger tax package.
There are at least three reasons the June 14 Virginia contests could
have a national impact.
Most elections in the country this year are being fought on local
issues that won't translate elsewhere. But the role of the tax issue
in Virginia, both in the GOP primaries and in the battle for
governor next November between Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican
Jerry Kilgore, ensures that analysts and candidates will read
implications into the results.
Kilgore sides with GOP critics of the Warner economic plan, while
Kaine, as lieutenant governor, helped pass it.
The outcome could affect two Virginians seen as potential
presidential candidates. Many Democrats see Warner, a moderate who
opposes gun control, as the kind of presidential candidate who could
appeal to the "red" states but believe he'd be damaged if Kaine
lost.
On the Republican side, Sen. George Allen's hopes could be affected
by the showing of Kilgore, a fellow conservative.
As Farris noted, the primaries here could preview what might happen
in other states, such as Texas, and nationally if the tax issue
re-emerges in the next several years as a major GOP fault line.
And Farris predicted, "The issue will arise on the national level
because of the Republican propensity to spend money," adding that he
blames Congress because of its constitutional control of the purse
strings. "This is the party that's supposed to be dedicated to
trimming budgets," he said.
The conflict could well occur in the 2008 GOP primaries unless major
steps are taken to reduce the federal deficit that has exploded
since President Bush took office.
Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a prime GOP prospect in 2008, opposed
the Bush tax cut in 2001 and might assume the banner of fiscal
responsibility championed by past Republicans and Ross Perot.
That could create a clash with Allen and most other likely GOP
hopefuls, as well as Bush, who still adhere to the party's tax-cut
orthodoxy, despite the deficit.
So though the stakes in Virginia are small, the impact could be
substantial.
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© 2005, Dallas Morning News Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.
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Arnold Ahlert | |||||||||||
