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Jewish World Review May 1, 2008 / 26 Nissan 5768 Carter, Hart ... and Obama? By James Klurfeld
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | The political question of the day is why Sen. Barack Obama can't close out the Democratic nomination. He missed the opportunity in New Hampshire, and then again in Texas and Ohio, and now in Pennsylvania. In a race that has gone on for this long and with the demographic profiles of the two candidates so different, it would be foolish to single out just one reason Obama can't put an end to the race. But it's possible to place it in a historical context. That is, it's not at all unusual for a political newcomer to bolt out of the gates and shoot ahead of the field early, only to come down back to earth as voters take a closer look at somebody they don't know that well and who doesn't have much experience. Obama is on a flight path similar to Jimmy Carter's in 1976 or Gary Hart's in 1984, or even Bill Clinton's in 1992. The underlying truth is that Americans feel more comfortable with their presidential candidates when they know them well. There are myriad reasons Obama hasn't put the nomination away, but they all revolve around this issue of familiarity, and, especially, a lack of national experience. The Republicans, going back to Richard Nixon in 1960 and 1968, have generally nominated the most-experienced candidate. And, by and large, it has served them well. This time around, it was inevitable that someone would emerge as the anti-Hillary Clinton candidate. She just has too much baggage, and there is too much antipathy toward her within the party, for Democratic voters not to have looked for an alternative. And that Obama turned out to be as articulate, charismatic and unique as anybody who's emerged from our system in years just added to the drama. But once he made his initial impression and soared to the top, it was just as inevitable that voters would take a second look. That's what's happening now, and Obama has not done particularly well. But a lot of the questions center around his not being well known or having much experience. And Clinton has been dogged, if not downright vicious, in pressing his weaknesses. That is, after all, what campaigns are about. A similar thing happened to Carter when his campaign stalled about halfway through the primaries. He was too far ahead to be caught, but even late-entrant Jerry Brown, then California governor, started beating him in primaries. Carter's road to the White House was bumpy after that, and he almost blew a big lead over President Gerald Ford. And that was in the wake of the Watergate scandals and Ford's pardon of Nixon. But the more relevant point might be that once Carter became president he proved largely unqualified for the job. His early promise, "I will have a government as good as its people," had resonance at first. But when he blamed the American people's "malaise" for the failure to get things done, and then saw the Iran hostage rescue mission blow up in the sands, he was finished - even though his defeat by Ronald Reagan didn't become apparent until the closing days of the campaign. I suspect that one reason older Democrats have shown much less enthusiasm for Obama is the memory of Carter. To young voters, all that is ancient history. Gary Hart's 1984 run offers another instructive comparison. He came out of nowhere to win the New Hampshire primary over former Vice President Walter Mondale and seemed to be surging ahead - especially with support from young, college-educated voters (sound familiar?). But he didn't fare so well in the inevitable closer look, when it was discovered he had changed his name from Hartpence and couldn't articulate an answer to Mondale's "Where's the beef?" question. I'm not making any predictions here. We've seen too many be wrong this year. But I do believe Obama has to deal with the question of experience and familiarity in a more effective way - if not against Sen. Clinton, then certainly in the fall, against Sen. John McCain. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.
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James Klurfeld is a professor of journalism at Stony Brook University.
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