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May 23, 2012
Tony Pugh: More private colleges offering tuition discounts
Mary Beth Franklin: How to Choose the Right Annuity for You
Tina Susman: The wig wasn't enough: Man gets 13 years for posing as his dead mom
The Kosher Gourmet by Emma Christensen:A simple way to do fish right
May 22, 2012
Warren Richey: Can US group challenge overseas surveillance act? Supreme Court to decide
Thomas M. Anderson: Walking Away From a Mortgage
The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon: Enjoy a celebration of the most rich and layered flavors: Black bean, sweet potato and quinoa chili
May 21, 2012
Mark Clayton: Cybersecurity: How US utilities passed up chance to protect their networks
Howard LaFranchi: NATO summit: Who will foot the bill for long-term Afghanistan security?
Chris Farrell : Earn Dividends in Emerging Markets with This WisdomTree ETF
Stephen Whiteside, Ph.D. : Mayo Clinic Medical Edge: Social anxiety disorder --- or just shy?
Guy Jackson : Victim's father regrets death of Lockerbie bomber
The Kosher Gourmet by Mario Batali: Famed chef's veal shoulder farsumagru: A festive meat course for late spring
May 18, 2012
Rabbi Berel Wein: Striving: The People of the Book's Book for (All of) the People
Steven Goldberg: 5 Great Stock Picks and the Exchange-Traded Fund that Owns Them
Mary Pickett, M.D.: Ask the Harvard Experts: Don't be forced into gluten-free lifestyle based merely on a doctor's false-positive test
The Kosher Gourmet by Carolyn Malcoun: DIY healthy lunchbox treats: HOMEMADE FRUIT BARS for kids and brown-bagging adults alike
May 17, 2012
Warren Richey: Teacher fired for being unwed and pregnant can sue religious school, court rules
Josh Mitnick: Netanyahu's 'centrist' coalition is already proving it's anything but
Steven Goldberg: Earn Dividends in Emerging Markets with This WisdomTree ETF
Amina Khan: Research links coffee to lower death rates
The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Duran : Cheesy Potato Breakfast Casserole with Cheddar and Sun-Dried Tomatoes
May 16, 2012
Carmen Terzic, M.D., Ph.D. : Mayo Clinic Medical Edge: A variety of exercises can help improve balance
Melissa Healy: National strategy on Alzheimer's disease aims to halt it by 2025
The Kosher Gourmet by Joyce White : GOODNESS GRACIOUS: GREENS! 4 winning recipes that are no longer just for down-home folks (Includes expert tips & techniques)
May 15, 2012
Kristen Chick: Obama administration resumes arms sales to Bahrain despite serious unresolved human rights issues. Activists feel abandoned
Pat Mertz Esswein: Homes are now affordable again and mortgage rates are low. What you need to know before you buy
Kathy Kristof: Our Practical Investor Fights Inflation with These 6 Investments
Sue Hubbard, M.D.: The Kid's Doctor: Lactose intolerant young child? Check again
The Kosher Gourmet by Kathy Hunt: Spread a Little Excitement with EXOTIC CONDIMENTS (4 RECIPES)
May 14, 2012
Lisa Gerstner: How to Protect Your Identity, Finances If You Lose Your Phone
Harvard Health Letters: Heart disease and dementia
The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon: MANGO COCONUT OAT MORNING MUFFINS are a bright but hearty delight
May 11, 2012
Jessica L. Anderson: Get the Best Deal on a Used Car
Jett Stone: Forget face-lifts and fake knees. Scientists have seen the fountain of youth --- and it's broccoli
The Kosher Gourmet by Chef Mario Batali: The famed chef's vegetable dish that tastes true to the season: FAVAS AND SUGAR SNAP PEAS WITH POTATOES AND TARRAGON
May 10, 2012
Sergei L. Loiko: Putin sends warning to U.S., NATO in Victory Day speech at Red Square
Mary Rourke: How being a 'mentch' got Vidal Sasoon his start and fighting in Israel's War of Independence provided him with confidence and a strong sense of his own identity
Jeff Bertolucci: Get Home Phone Service for Less Than $10 a Month
The Kosher Gourmet by Betty Rosbottom: Gleaming with its golden, crimson, and snowy white hues, this silken smooth and creamy STRAWBERRY ORANGE TRIFLE looks impressive, but is easy to prepare
May 9, 2012
Sharon Palmer, R.D. How you can reduce your risk -- or delay -- chronic diseases associated with aging
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Jewish World Review
May 31, 2007
/ 14 Sivan, 5767
National vs. local trends
By
Dick Morris & Eileen Mc Gann
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
National surveys of the presidential races in each party have remained relatively consistent since early in the year. As soon as Giuliani announced his candidacy, he jumped out to a big lead in the Republican primary, an advantage he still enjoys, although recent signs indicate a possible tightening of the contest. John McCain continues to run second, with Mitt Romney mired in a distant third place. Surveys that include Newt Gingrich or Fred Thompson usually have either or both lagging behind McCain but ahead of Romney. On the Democratic side, Hillary Rodham Clinton enjoys a commanding lead over Barack Obama, with John Edwards in third place. While Hillary's lead shrank earlier in the year, she now appears to have reestablished a formidable margin. When Al Gore is added to the field, he generally runs about even with Edwards but behind both Clinton and Obama.
But the state-by-state surveys show a very different picture. Romney, buried in the national polls, not only shows the expected lead in his neighboring state of New Hampshire, but also leads the pack in Iowa, while John McCain shows unusual strength in South Carolina. On the Democratic side, Edwards runs ahead in Iowa and Hillary often polls a distant third.
So which set of polls is predictive the national surveys or the polling in the early-primary states?
Traditionally, national polls have not been worth the cost of printing them. They typically show the better-known national candidates in the lead and fail to capture the local appeal of a lesser-known candidate who is quietly winning converts in the early-primary and caucus states. In the past, as the candidates campaigned extensively in the early states, voters there came to know them very well and their reactions often presaged those of the rest of the country once America began to focus on the race. In prior years, the results in Iowa and New Hampshire imposed themselves on the nation, sometimes sweeping aside the candidates who had been designated front-runners in the national surveys.
But this year may be different. Eventually, the early states will be decisive, as always. The candidates who do well in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada will win the nominations. If Florida advances its date to late January, it could play a similar role in 2008. But will the early states fall in line and eventually conform to the national polls, or will they stay loyal to the trends they now indicate? Will today's front-runner in Iowa or New Hampshire win there and go on to win the nomination, or will he or she fall back as the national trends assert themselves in these early states?
There are some indications that the national trends may be more decisive than they have been in the past. With public interest in the presidential campaign at dizzying levels, not just in the early-primary or caucus states where the candidates are concentrating their campaigns but throughout the nation, the opinions voters express in national polls are not nearly as ill-formed or tentative as in past elections. With cable news channels covering the early running with breathless intensity, voters outside the early states are forming definite opinions, often quite contrary to those which predominate in the early state polls. Since at least 10 states have moved their primaries up to Feb. 5 and most are likely to follow, it would stand to reason that this year voters are concentrating on the choices earlier than they have in previous years, so the national polls may mean more than they have in the past.
The Romney leads, for example, may just be due to heavy early media spending in the hopes of getting something started in Iowa and New Hampshire. McCain's strength in South Carolina might be due to residual memories of his valiant campaign there in 2000. When the big guns Hillary, Obama and Giuliani concentrate on the early states, they may assume the same lead there that they have throughout the country.
Or … the local leads current polls predict could be decisive. The front-runners in the early polls in the early states could consolidate their hold and win, upsetting and dramatically changing the national picture.
My bet is that the national will trump the local. Just as Howard Dean's edge in Iowa and New Hampshire vanished when the national media closed in and broadcast a steady diet of negative attacks (orchestrated by the leadership of the Democratic Party), so the national front-runners will likely impose their leads on the early states. But this year is clearly sui generis, and anything can happen.
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JWR contributor Dick Morris is author, most recently, of "Because He Could". (Click HERE to purchase. Sales help fund JWR.) Comment by clicking here.
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© 2007, Dick Morris
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